1. Regional disparities in Bulgaria – evaluation and policy implications Yana Kirilova, Ph.D. Institute of Economic Studies, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

2. General information Bulgaria – member of the EU since 2007. EU structural and cohesion funds utilized through operational programs. Operational Program “Regional Development” Next programming period 2014-2020 – need for new programming of regional development.

3. Preparation of OPRD 2014-2020 Project “Socio-economic analyses for preparation of OPRD 2014-2020” Institute of Economic Studies, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Sofia Consulting Group, Bulgaria Four-year project (2011-2014)

4. Analyses focused on: Regional disparities in terms of:  Demographic situation;  Labor market;  Incomes;  Economic development;  Transport infrastructure;  Tourism (services provided and infrastructure);  Social services and infrastructure (education, health, culture, social services).

5. Summary score of socio- economic development Integral indicator; To choose minimum indicators showing all major characteristics of the studied territorial units. To develop a methodology that shows the combined influence of these indicators

6. Indicators Coefficient of natural growth of the population Coefficient of migration of the population Employment coefficient GDP per capita Capital investments per capita Number of nights spent by tourists per 1000 population

7. Indicators Cultivated arable land per capita Incomes per member of a household Unemployment rate Length of railways and roads per 1000 sq.km. Share of university students in population Medical doctors per 100 000 population

8. Steps for calculating the summary scores Making the values of the individual indicators commensurate (BGN, %, dka,km, numbers); For each indicator:  The territorial unit with the highest value becomes a benchmark = 100%  All the rest – get a % compared to the benchmark The summary score for a territorial unit = average of the sum of its % for the individual indicators

9. 9 Summary scores of socio-economic development of Bulgarian regions 2007200820092010 South West Region66.1%67.6%65.9%68.1% North East Region59.5% 60.1%57.6% BULGARIA56.5%56.8%57.4%56.4% South East Region55.9%55.6%56.6%54.3% South Central Region51.5%51.4%54.0%49.9% North Central Region49.1%49.7%50.1%48.9% North West Region45.1%44.2%45.8%45.6%

10. 10 Summary scores of socio-economic development of Bulgarian regions

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12. 12 Disparities among the districts within the regions Group 1Group 2Group 3V %V % North West Region0 Pleven, Vratsa, Lovech Vidin, Montana 8.5 North Central RegionRusse Gabrovo, Veliko Tarnovo Silistra, Razgrad 16.7 North East RegionVarnaDobrich Targoviste, Shumen 21.0 South East Region Bourgas, Stara Zagora - Sliven, Yambol 19.5 South Central RegionPlovdivKardjali Haskovo, Pazardjik, Smolyan 12.9 South West RegionSofia-city Sofia-district, Blagoevgrad, Pernik Kyustendil25.5

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15. Conclusions for the regional policy Two models of regional development are monitored: Model 1: Center-periphery  At national level – SWR and the rest  At regional level – SWR, SCR, NER and the rest  At district level (central municipality and periphery) Model 2: Bipolar model  At national level – Sofia and Varna  At regional level – SER (Burgas and Stara Zagora)  At district level (2 strong municipalities and the rest)

16. Conclusions for the regional policy The disparities among regions and districts – arguments for implementing two types of regional policy: Reducing disparities – directing resources towards underdeveloped districts Development of growth centers - directing resources towards highly developed districts

17. What did the policy makers actually choose? OPRD 2014-2020 To support 67 cities and towns (centers of regions and municipalities) Concentrating population Concentrating technical and social infrastructure