1. Taking the 21 st Century Seriously: potential socio-technical developments over the coming two decades Professor Keri Facer, Education and Social Research Institute, Manchester Metropolitan University k.facer@mmu.ac.uk

2. The Beyond Current Horizons Programme 2 year programme, funded by UK Government Remit to ‘produce a set of challenging long-term scenarios for the future of education in the context of socio-technical change 2025 and beyond’ Engagement of over 150 academics, industry, policy partners, public engagement programme involving over 700 people 60+ reviews of existing evidence

3. Thinking systematically about ‘the future’ in education Purpose is to challenge assumptions, not make predictions Technological development does not determine social development Education has multiple purposes Future visions always involve values – make methods clear

4. KEY SOCIO-TECHNICAL TRENDS OVER THE COMING TWO DECADES

5. 1. Ageing Populations Over 50% of the population of Western Europe aged over 50 by 2030 with a further 40 year life expectancy. Over 25 % aged over 65. Population ageing a global phenomena, not just restricted to Europe/US Late life learning increasingly important. Late life inequalities will emerge. Intergenerational learning & intergenerational teams – wisdom + responsiveness Lifelong learning in the context of radical longevity? 5

6. 2. Working and living alongside machines becomes increasingly normal Devolving responsibility to machines: simple manual tasks or outsourcing the management of complex systems Cosmetic Pharmacology & Intelligent Prostheses (Brain- computer interfaces) Different generations with different degrees of comfort in delegating power and responsibility to machines. Growing computers – ethics? 6 Image from Andrew Harrison, DEGW Patterned (Flickr): Creative Commons License

7. 3. We will have the capacity to ‘know more stuff about more stuff’ Social trends toward accountability and security, The decreasing cost and increasing availability of digital storage capacity, The development of new forms of bio- and genetic information, The ability to digitally tag almost any physical object, space or person, The ability to represent information in more diverse media; 7 Image by Noah Sussman Tumbollage (Creative Commons License applies)

8. 4. The personal ‘cloud’ The capacity to connect to a network, and be constantly connected to knowledge, resources, people and tools Expectations of ‘perpetual contact’ with diverse networks and communities, both physical and virtual. Mobile/distributed families creating new notions of ‘absent presence’ My filter systems/friends – shaping what information I get 8 Image by Noah Sussman – Creative Commons License Applies

9. 5. Distance matters less, geography still counts Access information, people and resources anywhere Familiarity & social etiquette of working at a distance Increased international migration & decreased ease of frequent travel Place plays a role as identity marker & shapes regulatory/legal issues Place shapes cultures of innovation, economies and exchange 9 Lars Plougmann: creative commons license applies

10. 6. Weakening institutional boundaries Cultural shifts: younger age groups merging working and leisure practices Demographic shifts: adults needing to balance caring, working, learning, relationships The linear temporal structure of education -> work -> retirement is eroded The spatial structure of education/work/family is eroded 10 Brande Jackson: Creative Commons License applies SJ Photography: Creative Commons License applies Cindy47452 (flickr): Creative Commons License applies

11. 7. Challenges to the ‘knowledge economy’ narrative Polarisation of workforces: Rise of elites in major organisations Capacity to offshore work to low cost environments Automation What cannot be automated/offshored? – Caring? - Currently undervalued/underpaid 11 Troy Holden: CC license applies Jessica Mulley: CC license applies Fiona L Cooper: CC license applies

12. 2025 ? Networked, ‘augmented’ people, in an increasingly ageing population, working later in life and in intergenerational teams, working and living in collaboration with diverse machines that take on roles we see as human today, operating across multiple locations, in the context of increasingly sharp and extreme socio-economic divides New divides emerge around access to information, augmentation, participation in specific social networks? 12

13. Three major challenges Education for the networked individual – the network not the individual becomes the basis for educational design Supporting the individual to navigate a diverse learning landscape – learning is no longer seen as the preserve of schooling Reviewing educational goals in the light of potential polarisation – the lisbon agenda, the Leitch agenda, the ‘knowledge economy’ agenda all need to be rethought.

14. Thank you for listening k.facer@mmu.ac.uk www.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk

15. Acknowledgements & Links This socio-technical trends described here are derived from the work of the Beyond Current Horizons project which I led while Research Director at Futurelab. The research team at Futurelab included Richard Sandford, Dan Sutch, Steve Sayers and Mary Ulicsak. The implications for education presented here should be understood to be the views of the author and not the BCH programme, its participants or its funders. All members of the advisory group, challenge leads and review authors along with the full text of the final report from the programme can be found at: – www.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk/outcomes/reports/final-report-2009/ Images/photographs are attributed to their author where possible. They are used under Creative Commons license which means that they can be displayed elsewhere, but only with attribution, and they should not be modified in any way or used for commercial purposes. They were (almost) all sourced from Flickr. The futures tools can be found as follows: – www.millionfutures.org.uk; www.visionmapper.org.uk; www.powerleague.org.uk; 15