1. Input for next SCOSTEP program after CAWSES-II Japanese SCOSTEP committee of Science Council of Japan (Chair: Prof. Tatsuki Ogino, Nagoya Univ.) Dec 25, 2012 Dec 28, 2012 rev.B

2. Suggested topics for new Task Groups SOLAR VARIABILITY Earth-affecting solar transients – See appendix 2 Extreme events in the solar-terrestrial system Solar maximum and declining phase – 2014-18 will be the maximum and declining phase of solar activity Discrimination of global trends and solar activity COUPLINGS Latitudinal coupling in atmosphere and geospace – e.g. energy transfer from high to low latitude during geomagnetic storm – Coupling between equatorial and mid-latitude/polar ionosphere – Atmospheric coupling between different latitudes and hemispheres Whole atmosphere and geospace coupling – Expansion of TG-4/CAWSES-II to global scale and into geospace – Effect of geospace disturbance to the atmosphere IMPORTANT ISSUES Turbulence/small scale processes in solar-terrestrial phenomena – A new issue arising from high-resolution observation and modeling Combination of observation and modeling (in space weather) – Data assimilation for precise forecasting Atmospheric dynamics for ground-ionosphere electric current INFRASTRUCTURE Capacity Building Informatics including big data.

3. Keywords for the title of next SCOSTEP program after CAWSES-II No ‘CAWSES-III’, but the basic concepts of CAWSES should continue. Climate, Weather, and Impact Extreme, Severe, Space storm 5 year project is preferable Help for wording needed from English-speaking members.

4. (appendix 1) Possible large-scale projects expected in 2014-2018, which Japanese group will organize or join Solar Telescope (Kyoto Univ.) ERG satellite for radiation belts (launch: 2015) Hinode will keep its operation IUGONET (database development activity) PANSY radar will be in full operation in Antarctica EISCAT-3D will be in operation (international collaboration) Equatorial atmosphere radar is newly proposed. Multi-point ground network will expand to subauroral latitudes and Asia/Africa International school activity will be kept by Kyoto Univ. and Kyushu Univ.

5. (appendix 2) CAWSES-ISEST Project International Study for Earth-Affecting Solar Transients (ISEST) SOC Members: Jie Zhang (USA), B. Vr?nak (Co-Chair, Croatia), A. Asai (Japan), P. Gallagher (Ireland), A. Lara (Mexico), N. Lugaz (USA), C. Mostl (Austria), A. Rouillard (France), N. Srivastav (India), Y. Yermolaev (Russia), Y.-M. Wang (China), D. Webb (USA) An international effort including observations, data analysis, modeling, and transition from science to prediction operation. The ISEST tasks are (1) Create a comprehensive database of Earth-affecting solar and heliospheric transient events (2) Characterize and quantify the kinematic and morphological properties of transient events (3) Develop advanced theoretical models of the propagation and evolution of heliospheric transients (4) Develop advanced 3D numerical models of prediction of ICME arrival and the expected strength of space weather impact (5) Prediction tool development (6) Public outreach and education

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7. 1.2

8. Next program interval (2014-2018) is a solar maximum and declining phase. Topics on flare/CME/storm can be approached. Possibility toward the solar ground minimum should be explored.

9. Lastovicka et al. Science [2006] 9 Discrimination of global trends and solar activity EISCAT observations for 31 years at Tromsø, Norway (69.6 deg N) Altitude [km] Ion temperature variations Ti(obs) - Ti(fit) [K] Year Ti_trend = -1.3±0.36 K/year Thermosphere cooled over the past 31 years Long-term trends in MTI region Ti(fit) MgII = A + B·SZA + C·(MgII) + D·(MgII) 2

10. pole equator aurora plasmasheet electromagnetic coupling between E and F region plasmasphere atmospheric waves from aurora magnetosphere middle atmosphere ionosphere particle and energy input from the magnetosphere radiation belts plasma waves E-field penetration troposphere Latitudinal/whole-atmosphere coupling in the atmosphere and geospace wave breaking momentum release secondary waves gravity waves tides planetary waves tropospheric disturbance electromagnetic coupling between hemispheres wave penetration to thermosphere PMC/PMSE O/N2 ratio change equatorial fountain ionospheric instabilities mesospheric duct K. Shiokawa PSC mass transport mass transport mesospheric jet

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12. Combination of observation and modeling (in space weather) - Data assimilation for precise forecasting NowcastForecast Modeling Data Assimilation Data processing Input Validation Observation

13. Atmospheric dynamics for ground-ionosphere electric current Monthly variation of lightning activity WAVE-4 structure and lightning activity Thunderstorm is one of the main generator in the global electric circuit

14. Japan contribution to SCOSTEP-related outreach/capacity building Global Contribution ISWI & MAGDAS school ISWI & MAGDAS school Nov. 2010 at Egypt, Aug. 2011 at Nigeria, Sep. 2012 at Indonesia, 2013 at Cote d’lvoire (scheduled)Nov. 2010 at Egypt, Aug. 2011 at Nigeria, Sep. 2012 at Indonesia, 2013 at Cote d’lvoire (scheduled) 5 – 10 lecturers from Japan at each school5 – 10 lecturers from Japan at each school Regional contribution JSPS Asia-Africa Science Platform Program JSPS Asia-Africa Science Platform Program 2008-2011 with India & Indonesia (Tsuda)2008-2011 with India & Indonesia (Tsuda) 2013-2016 with Nigeria, Indonesia, Cote d’lvoire, Thailand (Shiokawa)2013-2016 with Nigeria, Indonesia, Cote d’lvoire, Thailand (Shiokawa) Structure for outreach/capacity building ICSWSE (International Center for Space Weather Science and Education) at Kyushu University (2012-) ICSWSE (International Center for Space Weather Science and Education) at Kyushu University (2012-) IUGONET (Inter-university Upper atmosphere Global Observation NETwork) (2009-2014) IUGONET (Inter-university Upper atmosphere Global Observation NETwork) (2009-2014) Kyoto U., Nagoya U., Tohoku U., Kyushu U., NIPRKyoto U., Nagoya U., Tohoku U., Kyushu U., NIPR

15. INFRASTRUCTURE - Informatics including big data Big Data Database User Big Data Database Super Computer User Super Computer Big Data Database Super Computer Data Mining Data Assimilation Simulation Modeling Data Analysis

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17. ERG ● Launch: 2015/12 ● Orbit : - apogee altitude: 4.5Re / perigee altitude: 300km - inclination ≦ 31° - spin-axis stabilized (sun oriented) ● Mission Life : > 1year ● Science Instruments: - PPE (Plasma/Particle) - electron detectors LEP-e: 12eV-20keV, MEP-e: 10keV-80keV HEP-e: 70keV-2MeV, XEP-e: 200keV-20MeV - ion detectors with mass discrimination LEP-i: 10eV-20keV/q, MEP-i: 10keV-180keV/q - PWE (DC Electric Field/Plasma Waves) - electric field (DC-10MHz) - magnetic field (1Hz- 100 kHz) - MGF (DC Magnetic Field, 128 Hz sampling) Strong synergy with ground-network observations, modeling studies, and international spacecraft fleet. ERG mission will - achieve comprehensive plasma observations with magnetic & electric field, wave, and particle detectors with a wide energy coverage to capture acceleration, transport, and loss of charged particles in Geospace - establish plasma observatory under strong radiation environment. A mission to elucidate acceleration and loss mechanisms of relativistic electrons around Earth during space storms. ERG project office: ERG_adm@st4a.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp

18. “Hinode”, as on-orbit solar observatory accessible from over the world, will continue scientific operations and provide unique data of the Sun. All the Hinode data is open to any scientists. EUV Imaging Spectrometer （ EIS ） Solar Optical Telescope （ SOT ） X-Ray Telescope （ XRT ） North Polar region 2008 North Polar region 2011 Monitoring the magnetic field at polar regions, which is a key information for solar dynamo. Hinode EUV imaging spectroscopic measurements allow to diagnose plasma dynamics in the coronal structures Fe XII intensity Fe XII Doppler velocity High spatial resolution images of the corona in soft X-rays (left) and photosphere (right)

19. Inter-university Upper atmosphere Global Observation NETwork Various kind, huge amount of data spread over institutes and universities Create a metadata database for cross- search of these distributed data Promote new types of upper atmospheric research by analysis of multi-disciplinary data

20. PANSY (Program of Antarctic Syowa MST/IS ) radar : 2014 full operation 2009 Funded by MEXT/Japan March 2011, first light observation April 2012, started continuous research observation with 1/4 system (largest atmospheric radar in the Antarctic) 2014 Full system operation 20 Troposphere/Stratosphere observation on May 5-8, 2012 20 Main organization: NIPR, U. of Tokyo, Kyoto Univ. 69S, 39E

21. Conceptional drawing Implementation plan and current situation The European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures (ESFRI) selected the EISCAT_3D for inclusion in the 2008 update of its Roadmap for Large-Scale European Research Infrastructures. Development of the EISCAT_3D started with the EU FP6 funded Design Study (2005-2009) and is now continued with the EU FP7 funded Preparatory Phase (2010-2014). Norway and Sweden submitted applications towards construction of the EISCAT_3D in 2012 and 2013. Finnish Roadmap proposal including financing is currently planned. The construction cost is about 132MEuro in total.  Location Northern Scandinavia  System configuration 1 core site: ~10,000 cross dipole Yagi antennas & Tx/Rx modules 4 remote sites: ~10,000 cross dipole Yagi antennas & Rx modules at each site The antenna elements will be built on an elevated platform to prevent problems with snow. (From Swedish national proposal) EISCAT_3D: The next generation international atmosphere and geospace research radar A core site (Tx/Rx) and remote sites (Rx only) An image of multi-static radar observations First operation in 2017

22. EAR GAW atmosphere monitor station Boundary layer radar Airglow imager, F-P interferometer (STEL) Multipurpose lidar (TMU) X-band meteoroligcal radar (Shimane U.) GPE receivers (STEL) Ionosonde (NICT) EAR control room Meteorological measurement Meteor radar Equatorial MU radar We plan to expand the EAR by installing Equatorial MU radar (EMU). The new EMU is the MU-radar class radar that is 10 times more sensitive to the EAR. This plan is included as part of “Japanese Master Plan of Large Research Projects 2011” by Science Council of Japan. EAR site seen on Google Earth EMU will be installed at north of EAR Equatorial MU radar Expansion of Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR)

23. radiation belt particles Pc5 pulsation VLF chorus EMIC/Pc1 pulsation plasmasphere injection from plasma sheet sun Van Allen Probes ERG THEMIS magnetosphere solar wind Energization and loss of radiation belt particles occur in the inner magnetosphere through interaction with various VLF/ULF waves and background field variations. VLF/ULF waves THEMIS LEO satellites auroral particles loop antenna wave- particle interactions camera radiation belt particles aurora Van Allen Probes ERG magnetometer 60 o 70 o 80 o MLAT/MLON MAP Possible ground stations at subauroral latitudes K. Shiokawa Study of energization and loss of high-energy particles in geospace using multi-point ground and satellite network at subauroral latitudes Study of energization and loss of high-energy particles in geospace using multi-point ground and satellite network at subauroral latitudes

24. 北海道大 東北大 信州大 気象研 NICT 極地研 東京大 名古屋大 京都大 九州大 existing planned cosmic ray NO x,O 3 airglow Solar telescope Solar wind aerosol SD radar IPS solar wind magne/G PS aurora wave MAGDAS magnetometer s PANSY MUR OMTI airglow instruments Multi-point ground network will expand over Asia and Africa Equatoria l MU radar SOLAR-C ERG IUGONET database EISCAT_3D radar

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