1. EU-Russia Relations: Alternative Futures
Sergei Medvedev,
Higher School of Economics, Moscow

2. Fifteen years of zastoi
No evident crisis, but a perpetual stalemate
3 gaps
between EU-Russia interdependence and the actual state of relations
between political rhetoric the level of implementation
between ‘strategic partnership’ and the lack of strategic thinking
Zastoi = stagnation, muddling through (a word from the Brezhnev era)
supported by massive energy flows
concealed by increased semiotic activity (strategies, partnerships, summits)

3. The structural impediment
No mega-incentive of Russian membership of the EU
EU political machinery not suited for dealing with non-acceding “partners”
ENP a watered-down derivative of enlargement, “common spaces” a watered-down version of the ENP
Russia not sure about the way to deal with the EU
EU a new political animal, a bureaucratic/technical, rather than strategic way of policy-making
Russia defaults into tried and tested bilateralism
The negativist strategy: “no intention to join the EU” as the main stated strategy… but is it enough?

4. Building the scenarios
Why? This is a way to fill the third gap (lack of strategic thinking)
no intent to forecast, but rather to conceptualize and problematize EU-Russia relations
explore possible options and risks
find the points of compatibility/convergence of both systems
How? A need to develop a forecasting instrument that would suit both Russia and the EU
Common denominators: globalization and adaptation
Common variable: re-defining the role of the nation-state

5. Building the scenarios
GLOBAL TRENDS: Globalization and resistance
KEY VARIABLE: Role of the nation-state
European
scenarios E1 E2 E3
Russian
scenarios R1 R2 R3
ER1
ER2
ER3

6. Globalization and resistance
Re-Nationalization
Fragmentation
Regionalization, localization
Resistance/Identity
State as an anchor of identity
Anti-Americanism
Old Economy,
oil, resources, hierarchy
State intervention
Global terrorism
Regional instability
De-Nationalization
Integration
EU federalism
Homogeneity
Markets, liberalism
Americanization
New Economy
networks
Crisis of the welfare state
Liberal imperialism
New World Order
Key variable = Role of the Nation-state

7. Role of the Nation-State
In the economy (Economic axis X):
Liberal/ globalized / private / de-regulated/, or…
Statist / Public / Regulated / protectionist
In politics (Political axis Y):
Decentralized / networked / confederal, or…
Centralized / integrated / unitary

8. Generic chart Centralized/ Integrated Economic axis Statist Regulated
Liberal
Global
Political axis
Decentralized/
Networked

9. Russia’s options Centralized/ Integrated R3: Bureaucratic Capitalism
R1: Authoritarian
Modernization
Statist
Regulated
Liberal
Global
R2: Liberal
Modernization
Decentralized/
Networked

10. Russian scenarios R1: Authoritarian modernization
Model: South Korea in the 1960s-1980s
R2: Liberal modernization
Model: East Central Europe in the 1990s
R3: Bureaucratic capitalism
Model: Mexico, Indonesia

11. R1: Authoritarian modernization
Political centralization
“Administrative vertical”, “managed democracy”
Limits on federalism and local autonomy
East Asian models: South Korea1960s-70s?
Corporatism / re-distribution of resource rent
Liberal economic and social agenda
Capital-intensive modernization projects
Dismantling the paternalist social system
WTO membership, OECD application
Generally pro-Western foreign policy
Extended cooperation with the US (terrorism, Greater Middle East?)
Friction with EU, CoE, OSCE

12. R2: Liberal modernization
Political pluralism
Resurgence of liberal parties/projects (support by the Kremlin?)
Modernization from below, civil society development
Extended federalism and regionalism
Cross-border cooperation
Full economic liberalization, de-monopolization
Fighting the “Dutch disease” and resource dependence
Development of the small and medium business
Central European model (Poland, Czech Republic)
Enhanced dialogue with the EU
Not just economic interests, but normative affinity and legal harmonization

13. R3: Bureaucratic Capitalism
Informal state capitalism
Corporations are private but de facto controlled by the state
High ownership concentration / monopolies (Gazprom, Rosneft, etc.)
Postponement of structural reform / stagnation / corruption
Dependence on natural resources/ oil exports: Russia as a petro-state
Authoritarian drift
Privileged role for the bureaucratic corporation/security elite
One-party rule (like in Japan, Mexico)
A unitary territorial structure (appointing governors)
“Cold peace” with the West
Opposing the “Color Revolutions” in the CIS

14. EU options Centralized/ Integrated E3: Fortress Europe E1: Global
Actor
Statist
Regulated
Liberal
Global
E2: Common
Market Plus
Decentralized/
Networked

15. EU scenarios E1: Global actor E2: Common Market Plus
Political Union (French concept)
E2: Common Market Plus
Economic Union Plus (British concept)
E3: Fortress Europe
Isolationist view

16. E1: Global actor
Success of constitutional referenda and institutional reform
Moving towards the political union
Deepening and widening of the EU (accession of Turkey, Ukraine, etc.)
Liberal economic policy: opening up EU markets to globalization
Consolidated foreign and security policy
Enhanced Neighborhood Policy
Global role – out of the area

17. E2: Common Market Plus
Failure of the Constitution and of institutional reform
Weakening of central institutions, re-nationalization and regionalization
Emergence of a “core Europe” of rich nations
Proliferation of bilateralism
No political union, “Common Market Plus”
Globalization and liberalization of national and subregional markets
Low-profile global role of the EU

18. E3: Fortress Europe
Powerful external variables /“globalization gone bad”:
Global terrorism, WMD, Islamic mobilization
Role of the US and/or Russia
climate change, catastrophic migration
Enlargement stops at 25 + BG, ROM, CRO
Limited institutional reform, with impact on JHA
Securitization of polity, stricter immigration/border control
Economy: protectionism and state intervention
Foreign policy: Isolationism, no global commitment
Failure of subregionalism and of neighborhood projects

19. EU-Russia scenario matrix
Europe
Liberal Modernization
Authoritarian Modernization
Bureaucratic
Capitalism
Global Actor
Partnership
Zastoi
Common Market +
Fortress Europe
Cold Peace

20. EU-Russia scenarios: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
ER1: Partnership
Probability: Low (2)
ER2: Cold Peace
Probability: Medium (3)
ER3: Zastoi
Probability: High (4)

21. ER1: Partnership
Development of EU-Russia institutions beyond the traditional neighborhood policy
a Special Partner status for Russia?
acceptance by Russia of part of the acquis, institutional adaptation
Full cooperation in the four common spaces
Economy: from the Free Trade Area to Common Economic Space
CFSP: Cooperative security with Russia
JHA: full cooperation (counterterrorism), visa-free status for Russia?

22. ER2: Cold Peace A combination of worst-case scenarios:
deteriorating global conditions: terrorism, WMD, migration
global security alert, geopolitics, competition for resources
“Fortress Europe” in the EU and/or bureaucratic capitalism in Russia
EU and Russia increasingly alienated
US-Russia cooperation possible, over the head of the EU
Russia’s unsuccessful attempts to divide the EU
Raising visa and border barriers
failure of cross-border regionalism
Trade disputes, delayed Russian entry into the WTO

23. ER3: Zastoi
Continuation of present trends, stagnation of EU-Russia relations
Loose institutions, hollow summits, bureaucratic squabbling between EU and Russia
Lack of cohesion, rival visions of Russia in the EU
Failure of the PCA follow-up Strategy (after 2007)
Bilateralism with Russia (France, Germany, UK)
Of four common spaces, only some cooperation in the First (economy) and Fourth (humanitarian)
frictions in internal security (visas, borders, re-admission)
competition in foreign policy (rivalry in the CIS: Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, South Caucasus)

24. Negative trends prevail
Perpetuation of the current system in Russia
Reproduced in the election cycle
This system is tolerated by the West, due to
Russia’s territory / position/ geopolitics of size
Oil/resources / geopolitics of energy
Security/ geopolitics of terrorism
Uncertainty in Europe
Failure of the constitutional referenda / “Orange revolution” in the EU
Europessimism, future of enlargement uncertain
Russia not on top of the priority list
No instruments, no leverage no cohesion in EU’s Russia-policy

25. Facilitating EU-Russia Partnership
A liberal modernization scenario in Russia
A global vision for the EU
A special role for the bilateral relations
Finnish presidency
Traditional partnerships (Germany, France)
Externalities to the EU-Russia relations
A drop in the oil prices