1. Data Mining – Algorithms: OneR Chapter 4, Section 4.1

2. Simplicity First Simple Algorithms sometimes work surprisingly well It is worth trying simple approaches first Different approaches may work better for different data There is more than one simple approach First to be examined: OneR (or 1R) – learns one rule for the dataset – actually a bit of a misnomer – one level decision tree

3. OneR – Holte (1993) Simple, cheap method Often performs surprisingly well Many real datasets may not have complicated things going on Idea: –Make rules that test a single attribute and branch accordingly (each branch corresponds to a different value for that attribute) –Classification for a given branch is the “majority” class for that branch in the training data –Evaluate use of each attribute via “error rate” on training data –Choose the best attribute

4. Figure 4.1 Pseudo-code for 1R. At least in the simplest version, “missing” is treated as a separate value

5. Example: My Weather (Nominal) OutlookTempHumidWindyPlay? sunnyhothighFALSEno sunnyhothighTRUEyes overcasthothighFALSEno rainymildhighFALSEno rainycoolnormalFALSEno rainycoolnormalTRUEno overcastcoolnormalTRUEyes sunnymildhighFALSEyes sunnycoolnormalFALSEyes rainymildnormalFALSEno sunnymildnormalTRUEyes overcastmildhighTRUEyes overcasthotnormalFALSEno rainymildhighTRUEno

6. Let’s take this a little more realistic than book does Divide into training and test data Let’s save the last record as a test

7. For each attribute – start with Outlook Make a rule for each value –Sunny  yes 1/5 errors –Overcast  yes* 2/4 errors –Rainy  no 0/4 errors –Total errors = 3/13 Move on to next attribute – temperature –Hot  no 1/4 errors –Mild  yes2/5 errors –Cool  no*2/4 errors –Total errors = 5/13 * - means tie – arbitrarily broken (maybe random)

8. Continue with Humidity Make a rule for each value –High  yes* 3/6 errors –Normal  no 3/7 errors –Total errors = 6/13 Move on to next attribute – windy –False  no 2/8 errors –True  yes1/5 errors –Total errors = 3/13 - means tie – arbitrarily broken (maybe random) First and last attributes tie – one would have to be arbitrarily chosen On the test record, the first would end up being correct, the last wouldn’t

9. Again being more realistic than the book, this will be cross validated Normally 10-fold is used, but with 14 instances that is a little awkward – –6 of the tests would be on 1 instance –4 of the tests will be on 2 instances I’m going to do 14-fold instead – having one test instance for each test Next test, save 13 th instance out as test data

10. For each attribute – start with Outlook Make a rule for each value –Sunny  yes 1/5 errors –Overcast  yes 1/3 errors –Rainy  no 0/5 errors –Total errors = 2/13 Move on to next attribute – temperature –Hot  no 1/3 errors –Mild  yes*3/6 errors –Cool  no*2/4 errors –Total errors = 6/13 * - means tie – arbitrarily broken (maybe random)

11. Continue with Humidity Make a rule for each value –High  no 3/7 errors –Normal  yes* 3/6 errors –Total errors = 6/13 Move on to next attribute – windy –False  no 2/7 errors –True  yes2/6 errors –Total errors = 4/13 - means tie – arbitrarily broken (maybe random) First attribute wins On the test record, this makes an incorrect prediction

12. In a 14-fold cross validation, this would continue 12 more times Let’s run WEKA on this …

13. WEKA results – first look near the bottom === Stratified cross-validation === === Summary === Correctly Classified Instances 9 64.2857 % Incorrectly Classified Instances 5 35.7143 % ============================================ On the cross validation – it got 9 out of 14 tests correct (I don’t know which way it went on arbitrary decisions so we may not re-create exactly if we walk all of the way through

14. More Detailed Results === Confusion Matrix === a b <-- classified as 4 2 | a = yes 3 5 | b = no ==================================== Here we see –the program 7 times predicted play=yes, on 4 of those it was correct The program 7 times predicted play = no, on 5 of those it was correct There were 6 instances whose actual value was play=yes, the program correctly predicted that on 4 of them There were 8 instances whose actual value was play=no, the program correctly predicted that on 5 of them

15. Part of our purpose is to have a take-home message for humans Not 14 take home messages! So instead of reporting each of the things learned on each of the 14 training sets … … The program runs again on all of the data and builds a pattern for that – a take home message

16. For each attribute – start with Outlook Make a rule for each value –Sunny  yes 1/5 errors –Overcast  yes* 2/4 errors –Rainy  no 0/5 errors –Total errors = 3/14 Move on to next attribute – temperature –Hot  no 1/4 errors –Mild  yes*3/6 errors –Cool  no*2/4 errors –Total errors = 6/14 * - means tie – arbitrarily broken (maybe random)

17. Continue with Humidity Make a rule for each value –High  no 3/7 errors –Normal  no 3/7 errors –Total errors = 6/14 Move on to next attribute – windy –False  no 2/8 errors –True  yes2/6 errors –Total errors = 4/14 - means tie – arbitrarily broken (maybe random) First attribute wins - see WEKA results on next slide

18. WEKA - Take-Home === Classifier model (full training set) === outlook: sunny-> yes overcast-> yes rainy-> no (11/14 instances correct) This very simple classifier rule-set could be the take home message from running this algorithm on this data – if you are satisfied with the results! This 11/14 correct is NOT a good indicator of quality – it is looking at % correct on TRAINING DATA The cross validation results previously shown (9/14) is a much more fair judgment because it is on TEST DATA

19. Let’s Try WEKA OneR on njcrimenominal Try 10-fold unemploy: hi-> bad med-> ok low-> ok (27/32 instances correct) === Confusion Matrix === a b <-- classified as 1 6 | a = bad 3 22 | b = ok

20. Numeric Attributes For OneR, numeric attributes are “ discretized ” – the range of values is divided into a set of intervals (Too) simple method: –Sort –Put breakpoint wherever class changes (this is “supervised” discetization) –See my weather data … Temp- erature 64656869707172 75 80818385 Play?YNNYNNYYNYYNNN With OneR, there would only be one error on the training data … but..

21. This is “overfitting” What makes 64 a different group than 65? Using this technique, ideal division would be with a numeric primary key – every attribute value could get its own group and error on training data would be 0 (but unlikely to be valuable for future prediction) Improvement via a Heuristic – each group must have at least N members of majority class (and go further if keep having majority class) In book, example N = 3. In WEKA, default N = 6.

22. With N = 3 on My Weather temperature Hit 3 rd No with 70, then continue and include 71 Hit 3 rd Yes with 75, then continue and include 80 We’re actually just lucky here that the last group reaches 3 in a majority class. If one had been No, that still would have been the last group – no choice Temp- erature 64656869707172 75 80818385 Play?YNNYNNYYNYYNNN 3 errors on this training data with this discretized attribute, but more likely to be useful for future predictions

23. With N = 3 on My Weather humidity In Class Exercise – What groups will we have? Humid ity 6570 7580 858690 919596 Play?YNYYNNNNNYYNYN

24. Let’s run WEKA My Weather Data First with default options Next with 3 (double click option area – WEKA option B)

25. Another Thing or Two Using this method, if two adjacent groups have the same majority class, they can be collapsed into one group (this doesn’t happen for temperature or humidity) We can’t do anything about missing values, they have to be in their own group

26. OneR in context The machine learning community had been using a set of available datasets to compare algorithms for a number of years –http://www.ics.uci.edu/~mlearn/MLSummary.html Algorithms were getting more and more complicated, with small gains in improvement Holte (1993) said “the emperor has no clothes” – state of the art methods were often only a few pct points better, and with much more complicated structural patterns (concept descriptions) OneR can provide a “ baseline ” against which other, more complicated methods can be compared –If they improve significantly, use them, otherwise …

27. Class Exercise

28. Let’s run WEKA OneR on japanbank B option = 3

29. We can actually discretize and save data for future use using WEKA Preprocess Tab Select Choose Unsupervised > Attribute > Discretize Choose Options –Attribute indices (#s to be binned – e.g. attr 3-4) –FindNumBins – to have WEKA find a good number of groups for this data –NumBins = max # groups to consider Choose Apply Button Choose Save Button, to save in permanent file Undo if necessary

30. End Section 4.1