1. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Oscar Alves, Yonghong Yin, Robin Wedd, Maggie Zhao and Harry Hendon CAWCR PEODAS

2. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Introduction to PEODAS Impact on Forecast Skill (vs Old System) Comparison with other Centres Plan

3. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology PEODAS (Yin et al 2010) Pseudo Ensemble Kalman Filter – (Based on extension of BLUElink system; Oke et al) 11 member ensemble but used lagged set for covariances (100 member) Compression to central rather than assimilation into each Constant background/obs error ratio (not using ensemble) Background covariance only used from ensemble

4. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Comparison with POAMA-1 POAMA-1 PEODAS System Optimum Interpolation Pseudo EnKF Covariances 2D Univariate Static 3D Multi-variate Time-evolving Observations Temperature profiles from BoM Temperature and salinity profiles from EU ENACT ForcingNCEP Re-analysis ERA-40 Re-analysis Bias Correction Re-analysis None 3D relaxation to Levitus 1980-present 1960-present

5. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Example of Ensemble Spread (Estimate of analysis error) From Yin et al 2010 Temperature Salinity

6. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Correlation between re-analysis and UKMO EN3 dataset Heat Content Salt Content Produced by Maggie Zhao

7. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Impact on Forecasts (& Comparison with other models) Mostly Based on hind-casts from ~1982- 2006

8. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Produced by Li Shi NINO 3 and IOD Skill POAMA-2

9. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Impact of Assimilation on Heat Content Skill Correlation in Tropics Produced by Maggie Zhao POAMA-2 (3 models) No Assim POAMA-1.5

10. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Impact of Assimilation on Salt Content Skill Correlation in Tropics Produced by Maggie Zhao No Assim POAMA-1.5 POAMA-2 (3 models)

11. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Salinity Correlation Old Forecasts PEODAS Forecasts PEODAS OBS OLD OI OBS EN3 OBS

12. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Temperature Correlation Old Forecasts PEODAS Forecasts PEODAS OBS OLD OI OBS EN3 OBS

13. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Comparison of re- analyses with other centres

14. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Comparison with Other Centres Correlation with “Observations” Heat ContentSurface Current PEODAS ECMWF Produced by Maggie Zhao

15. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Composite Heat Content Produced by Li Shi

16. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology ENSO Composite ECMWF PEODAS NCEP Surface SalinityHeat Content Produced by Li Shi

17. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology IOD Composite ECMWF PEODAS GODAS (NCEP) Heat Content Produced by Li Shi EN3 Surface Salinity

18. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Summary PEODAS assimilation shows good agreement with obs and competitive with other systems Skill improvement for NINO3 (IOD ?) Sub-surface skill better compared to NINO3 But sub-surface skill, especially salinity, depends on observed dataset (Similar problem looking Great Barrier Reef SST Skill) What is reality?