1. Chapter 13 Author: Lee Hannah

2. FIGURE 13.1 Species ’ Range Shift and Protected Area. This figure from Peters ’ seminal early work on climate change and biological diversity shows the changing relationship between a species ’ range and a protected area. The species ’ range is indicated by hatching. As climate shifts, the proportion of range within the protected area changes. The figure shows the reserve being lost as the species ’ range ceases to intersect with it, but it is unlikely that a reserve would be declassified based on the loss of only one species. The reserve would remain important for many other species, so the greater question is how to maintain protection of the species that has moved beyond the reserve. Adding a protected area within the new range of the species is one important option. Reproduced with permission from Yale University Press.

3. FIGURE 13.2 Metapopulation Range Shift with Respect to a Protected Area. A more sophisticated view of a species ’ range shift considers the area of occupancy within the species ’ range, or the individual populations that make up the overall metapopulation of the species. Range shifts in this view involve loss or change in size of individual populations, which in turn change the representation of the species in a protected area.

4. FIGURE 13.3 Range Shifts Relative to Multiple Protected Areas. Range shifts in three species (a, b, c) are illustrated, each relative to two protected areas. This example illustrates the complexity of conserving multiple species as ranges shift. Figure courtesy of Conservation International.

5. FIGURE 13.4 Diversity of Movement within a Range Shift. Assumptions that species will always shift poleward with warming are belied by modeling results. Here, the simulated range of a protea species in the Cape Floristic Region shifts away from the pole (northward). There is no poleward landmass in this region, so this species is tracking climate upslope, moving into hills above the Cape lowlands. Blue represents newly suitable future range, red represents current climatically suitable range lost, and green represents currently suitable climatic range retained. From Hannah, L., et al. 2005. The view from the cape. Extinction risk, protected areas, and climate change. Bioscience 55, 231 – 242.

6. FIGURE 13.5 The King Protea ( Protea cynaroides ). The king protea is one of hundreds of protea species whose future ranges have been projected in species distribution modeling for the Cape Floristic Region. It is the national fl ower of South Africa. From Wikimedia Commons.

7. FIGURE 13.6 High Irreplaceability Areas — Alliance for Zero Extinction Sites. Alliance for Zero Extinction sites contain one or more species that occur only in those locations. These sites are irreplaceable: They must be conserved if species losses are to be avoided. Copyright National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A.

8. FIGURE 13.7 Healthy (Top) and Bleached (Bottom) Coral Reefs. Courtesy U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

9. FIGURE 13.8 Zoning Map for the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park is a marine protected area that has experienced extensive coral bleaching. In response to bleaching events and other management issues, a zoning plan for the park reflects permitted uses that best integrate climate change with other park management objectives. Tourism is excluded in some areas to facilitate postbleaching recovery. Map courtesy of the Spatial Data Centre, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, 2010.

10. FIGURE 13.9 Sedimentation and Shading Effects on Coral Bleaching. Shading (a) and sedimentation (b) are two factors that can infl uence the severity of coral bleaching. Sedimentation stresses corals and may exacerbate bleaching effects, whereas shading protects corals from synergies of high temperatures and photic effects, thereby reducing the probability of bleaching. Reproduced with permission from IUCN.

11. FIGURE 13.10 Marine Protected Areas. Healthy marine systems such as these can be one of the major benefits of marine protected areas (MPAs). MPAs can improve food web health and reduce chances of coral bleaching by decreasing synergistic pressures such as fi shing and tourism overuse. Courtesy U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).