1. The Long Reach of Early Math Skills Greg J. Duncan University of California, Irvine Robert Siegler Carnegie Mellon University

2. Gaps in Early Math Skills

3. The Problem Starts in the Preschool Period (Starkey et al., 2004) % Correct

4. Math Gaps Persists Across Elementary School (Duncan and Magnuson, 2011) Gaps in SAT-type units

5. Math Gaps Persists Across Elementary School (Duncan and Magnuson, 2011) Gaps in SAT-type units

6. Math gaps are biggest in the United States (OECD, 1992) Low High

7. Do Math Gaps Matter?

8. able to communicate thoughts & needs verbally able to communicate thoughts & needs verbally enthusiastic and curious in approaching new activities enthusiastic and curious in approaching new activities knowing how to sit still and pay attention knowing how to sit still and pay attention Only 10% thought that it was important that children starting school know numbers and the alphabet Only 10% thought that it was important that children starting school know numbers and the alphabet School readiness as defined by kindergarten teachers:

9. School readiness according to George W. Bush: “On the first day of school, children need to know letters and numbers. They need a strong vocabulary...These are the building blocks of learning, and this nation must provide them.” “On the first day of school, children need to know letters and numbers. They need a strong vocabulary...These are the building blocks of learning, and this nation must provide them.”

10. “[T]he elements of early intervention programs that enhance social and emotional development are just as important as the components that enhance linguistic and cognitive competence” “[T]he elements of early intervention programs that enhance social and emotional development are just as important as the components that enhance linguistic and cognitive competence” (Shonkoff and Phillips, 2000: 398-99) School readiness as defined by Neurons to Neighborhoods:

11. Our question: What are the roles of math, reading, attention and socioemotional skills for later child success? What are the roles of math, reading, attention and socioemotional skills for later child success?

12. A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors Skill/ behavior domain: Math and Reading Achievement Description:Concrete reading, math, etc. achievement skills Example test areas or question wording: Knowing letters and numbers; beginning word sounds, word problems

13. A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors Skill/ behavior domain: Math and Reading Achievement Attention Description:Concrete reading, math, etc. achievement skills Ability to control impulses and focus on tasks Example test areas or question wording: Knowing letters and numbers; beginning word sounds, word problems Can’t sit still; can’t concentrate; score from a computer test of impulse control

14. A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors Skill/ behavior domain: Math and Reading Achievement AttentionAnti-social behaviors Mental health Description:Concrete reading, math, etc. achievement skills Ability to control impulses and focus on tasks Ability to get along with others Sound mental health Example test areas or question wording: Knowing letters and numbers; beginning word sounds, word problems Can’t sit still; can’t concentrate; score from a computer test of impulse control Cheats or tells lies, bullies, is disobedient at school Is sad, depressed, moody

15. School-entry Skills & Later Achievement Six longitudinal datasets Six longitudinal datasets School entry measures of skills and behaviors School entry measures of skills and behaviors Outcomes: Reading and math achievement in 1 st through 8 th grade Outcomes: Reading and math achievement in 1 st through 8 th grade –Test scores and teacher reports Covariates: Family SES, child and (in 1 of the 6) mother’s cognitive skills Covariates: Family SES, child and (in 1 of the 6) mother’s cognitive skills (Duncan et al., 2007)

16. In other words: let’s have a horse race between early academic skills and behavior and see which ones win

17. Effects on later achievement

19. Power of early math skills Math impacts are adjusted for IQ differences Math impacts are adjusted for IQ differences Early math predicts later reading scores as much as early reading does! Early math predicts later reading scores as much as early reading does!

20. Now let’s look beyond school entry: What problems in K-5 best predict dropout, college, etc. What problems in K-5 best predict dropout, college, etc.

21. Double Jeopardy: Hernandez (2012) One in Six Children Who Are Not Reading Proficiently in Third Grade Fail to Graduate from High School On Time, Four Times the Rate for Children with Proficient Third- Grade Reading Skills

22. Persistent early school problems and adolescent attainment Math problems Math problems Reading problems Reading problems Attention problems Attention problems Anti-social behavior problems Anti-social behavior problems Mental health problems Mental health problems (Duncan and Magnuson, 2011)

23. Children with persistent reading problems were: 32 percentage points less likely to graduate high school 36 percentage points less likely to attend college Children with persistent math problems were: 32 percentage points less likely to graduate high school 44 percentage points less likely to attend college Simple associations are even more dramatic:

24. Effects of persistent K-5 problems on ever attending college (average = 43%)

26. Effects of age 14-16 skills and behaviors on earnings (males only)

28. Math matters a lot School entry math predicts later school success Avoiding persistent math problems in K-5 best predicts college attendance Math achievement in adolescence predicts labor market success

29. Why math? (preliminary) Structural story: teachers and schools provide extra opportunities for early math achievers? moderate math skills keeps kids out of special education?

30. Why math (con’t)? Motivational story: Math feedback is very concrete? Kids who don’t master math don’t think they are good at math or good at school?

31. What can be done about it? We need to know more about what works to promote early math proficiency

32. gduncan@uci.edu