1. Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique Is Nova Scotia Making Genuine Progress? An Overview of Some Key Trends Halifax, 30 October, 2008

2. Defining Genuine Progress Are there consensus values on the kind of Nova Scotia we want to leave our children? Health and wellbeing, safety and security, decent living standards, educated populace, access and inclusion, healthy environment and natural resources, strong and caring communities Beyond ideology

3. From indicators to accounts What distinguishes GPI from other wellbeing indicator systems = adds economic valuation component -> moves towards accounting system = In line with 5 capitals in OSP, which recognizes that social, human, and natural capital also have value ->accounting framework And EGSPA: Recognizing “the economic value of Nova Scotia’s environmental assets is essential to our long-term prosperity.”

4. -> A new accounting system This new accounting framework allows assessment of full economic, social, and environmental costs and benefits, & of cost- effectiveness of alternative policy options vs existing accounting system: Social, human, natural capital ignored; and their depletion misleadingly measured as gain; + anything can make economy grow regardless of OSP/Weaving Threads goals

5. A mixed picture Improvements in employment, real income, income equity (inclusion), poverty reduction, provincial debt status, waste and air quality (20-year timeline), smoking rate, GHGs….. Declines or insufficient progress (in relation to targets) in agriculture, forests, fisheries, ecological footprint, energy shift, wealth equity, obesity, volunteering, student debt.…. Just a few examples follow:

6. Official unemployment rates, Canada and Nova Scotia, 1976-2007

7. Official unemployment rates by region, Nova Scotia, 2001 to 2007

8. Disposable Household Income (Richest : Poorest 20%) Canada and Provinces, 1981-2004 ($2004) 1981199319982004 Canada 4.64.75.25.1 NL 4.54.84.44.5 PE 4.13.53.83.9 NS4.34.65.34.3 NB 4.74.24.54.6 QC 4.44.14.54.3 ON 4.24.75.3 MB 5.04.64.5 SK 5.54.74.54.6 AB 4.55.56.05.2 BC 4.64.85.26.0

10. Average disposable (after-tax) economic family income by quintile, adjusted for family size, Canada and Nova Scotia, 1976-2006 ($2006) 1976198119861991199620012006 CANADA 1 st quintile$11,500$12,600$12,800$12,600$11,800$13,900$15,100 2 nd quintile$20,600$21,900$21,600$21,200$20,800$23,900$25,300 3rd quintile$27,600$29,000$28,600$28,000$28,100$31,900$34,100 4 th quintile$36,200$37,700$37,000$36,600$36,800$42,000$45,000 5 th quintile$57,500 $58,500$58,100$59,600$71,400$75,400 NOVA SCOTIA 1 st quintile$10,800$10,700$11,300$11,900$10,800$12,900$15,200 2 nd quintile$17,500$17,900$18,500$19,300$18,700$21,200$23,900 3 rd quintile$22,700$23,800$24,200$24,900$24,700$28,200$31,100 4 th quintile$28,800$30,300$31,800$32,100$32,400$36,500$39,900 5 th quintile$43,500$46,300$50,700$49,000$50,300$61,900$62,900

11. Prevalence of low income after tax (92 LICOs base), total population, Canada and Nova Scotia, 1997-2006

12. Prevalence of low income after tax (92 LICOs base), selected groups, Nova Scotia, 1997-2006

13. Gini coefficients of after-tax income, all family units (economic families and unattached individuals), Canada and provinces, 1981 to 2004 197619811991199820012004 Canada.36.35.36.39 NL.34.33.35.36.37 PE.38.34.35.36.35 NS.34.37.38.37 NB.34.35.34.36.37 QC.35.36.37.38.37 ON.36.34.36.38.39.40 MB.37.36.34.37.36.37 SK.38.36.37.38 AB.38.35.37.38.39 BC.37.35.37.40.39

14. Civic and voluntary work, average hours per year, total population, 15 years and older, Canada and provinces, 1992, 1998, and 2005

15. Free Time, Nova Scotia and Canada, 1992,1998, 2005 (hours per day)

16. Share of population indicating high time stress, NS and Canada, 1998 & 2005 1998 GSS %2005 GSS % MALE Nova Scotia14.713.4 Rest of Canada15.313.9 FEMALE Nova Scotia17.422.7 Rest of Canada19.418.6 TOTAL Nova Scotia16.218.3 Rest of Canada18.616.4

17. Crime rate, total incidents per 100,000 population, Canada and Nova Scotia, 1962-2007

18. Crime rate comparison: NS and Canada rates of increase, 1962-2007 (1962=100)

19. Crime rates (per 100,000 population), by offence breakdown, Nova Scotia, 1962-2007 Crime cost = $700 million/year +

20. Youth crime rate per 100,000, aged 12-17, Canada, provinces and territories, 2006 VIOLENT CRIMEPROPERTY CRIMEOTHER CRIMINAL CODE TOTAL CRIMINAL CODE* Canada1,5282,5342,8326,885 NL1,6202,9154,2458,780 Prince Edward Island1,3323,8364,2359,403 Nova Scotia2,2723,6875,15411,113 New Brunswick1,6802,7424,0108,432 Quebec1,1101,5121,1433,765 Ontario1,4382,4552,0635,956 Manitoba2,7093,3955,03711,140 Saskatchewan3,4666,31610,15619,939 Alberta1,5903,0574,0788,725 British Columbia1,2542,1833,0016,438 Yukon4,5246,15514,86825,547 Northwest Territories7,74414,39122,49244,627 Nunavut5,63511,37414,15231,161

21. Change (Percent) in Total After-Tax Income (1999–2004) and Median Debt Value (1999–2005), Canada

22. Net Worth by Wealth Quintile ($ Trillions, 2005 Constant $), Canada, 1999 and 2005

23. Share of Wealth (Percent), by Net Worth Quintile, Canada, 1999 and 2005

24. Current Youth Smokers, aged 15– 24, Canada and NS, 1999–2005

25. Percentage Decline in Tobacco Use, Canada & Provinces, 1999-2005

26. Measured obesity rates by province, aged 18+, 2004

27. Overweight and obesity rates by province, children, aged 2 -17, 2004

28. Percentage of population aged 12 and over diagnosed with asthma, both sexes, Canada and provinces, 2007

29. Average amount of government student debt at time of graduation ($2000 CDN), Classes of 1990, 1995, and 2000, Canada

30. Percentile scores of correct answers to general political knowledge questions, by age group, 1984, 1993, 1997, 2000

31. Total Farm Cash Receipts, NS, 1971–2007 (Millions of $2007)

32. Total Net Farm Income, Nova Scotia, 1971–2007 (millions of $2007)

33. Expense to Income Ratio (%), Nova Scotia Farms, 1971–2006

34. Total Net Farm Income and Total Debt, NS Farms, 1971-2006 (millions of $2007)

35. Debt to Net Income Ratio, Nova Scotia Farms, 1971–2006

36. Solvency Ratio, Nova Scotia, QC, and Canadian farms, 1971–2006

37. Fishery GDP for Nova Scotia, 1984-1999 (1997$ millions)

38. Value of cod stocks, Eastern Scotian Shelf region, 1972- 2002, (2007$ millions).

39. Lobster landings in Nova Scotia, 1972-2007 (metric tonnes)

40. Mean trophic level (weighted by landed weight) in Nova Scotia Fisheries, 1972-2007

41. Estimated total biomass of porbeagle shark in the northwest Atlantic, 1961, 1991 and 2001

42. Employment trend in Nova Scotia fisheries, 1987-2007

43. Age distribution of Nova Scotian fishers, 1931-2006

48. Protected areas, Nova Scotia, 2007 TYPE OF PROTECTED AREATOTAL (HA) 34 Wilderness Areas294,951 16 Nature Reserves4,123 2 National Parks and 5 National Wildlife Areas 137,379 Provincial Parks and Park Reserves33,000 National Heritage RiversN/A Total Area Protected469,453 Percentage of Total Provincial land (5.5 million ha) 8.5% (interim target 12%)

49. Total area harvested and area clearcut, Nova Scotia, 1975-2005, (hectares)

50. Percentage of area harvested by clearcutting, 1975-2005

52. Value-added per cubic metre of wood harvested, by province, 1998 & 2004, ($2007) PROVINCEVALUE-ADDED (PER M 3 OF WOOD HARVESTED)1998 VALUE –ADDED (PER M 3 OF WOOD HARVESTED)2004 NFLD$50$121 PEI$39$54 NS$127$107 NB*$156$176 QC$260$241 ON$374$367 MAN$123$425 SASK$79$142 ALTA*$113$137 BC$133$117 CANADA$205$183

53. Nova Scotia Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions (kt of CO2 equivalents), 1990-2006

54. Per capita GHG emissions, Canada, provinces, territories, 2006 (kt of CO 2 equivalents)

55. 2006 NS greenhouse gas emissions broken down by sector (kt of CO2 equivalents) Greenhouse Gas Source Category 2006 Emissions Percent of Total Energy Total1840094% Electricity Generation614031% Fossil Fuel Industries9505% Commercial/Institutional17609% Residential11006% Transportation Total570029% Road transport386020% Agriculture4802% Waste5203% Nova Scotia Total19600100%

56. Major sources of GHG emissions, Nova Scotia, 2006

57. NS GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalents) 1990- 2006, compared to NS EGSPA target for 2020

58. NS GHG emissions (kt CO2 equivalents) 1990- 2006, cf Suzuki Fdn. emissions target for 2020

59. Cumulative potential damage cost avoidance through achieving the NS Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation Targets (based on graduated emission reductions from 2008-2020) Year EGSPA Target (10% below 1990)Suzuki Target (25% below 1990) Emission Reductio ns (tonnes) Damage Cost Avoidance (C$2005 millions) Emission Reductio ns (tonnes) Damage Cost Avoidance (C$2005 millions) $36 per tonne$1,230 per tonne $36 per tonne$1,230 per tonne 2008 397,000$14.3$488.3622,000$22.4$765.1 2009 794,000$28.6$976.61,244,000$44.8$1,530.1 2010 1,191,000$42.9$1,464.91,866,000$67.2$2,295.2 2011 1,588,000$57.2$1,953.22,488,000$89.6$3,060.2 2012 1,985,000$71.5$2,441.63,110,000$112.0$3,825.3 2013 2,382,000$85.8$2,929.93,732,000$134.4$4,590.4 2014 2,779,000$100.0$3,418.24,354,000$156.7$5,355.4 2015 3,176,000$114.3$3,906.54,976,000$179.1$6,120.5 2016 3,573,000$128.6$4,394.85,598,000$201.5$6,885.5 2017 3,970,000$142.9$4,883.16,218,000$223.8$7,648.1 2018 4,367,000$157.2$5,371.46,840,000$246.2$8,413.2 2019 4,764,000$171.5$5,859.77,462,000$268.6$9,178.3 2020 5,161,000$185.8$6,348.08,084,000$291.0$9,943.3 Total 36,127,000$1,300.6$44,436.256,594,000$2,037.4$69,610.6

60. Cumulative potential co-benefits through achieving the NS Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation Targets (based on graduated emission reductions from 2008-2020) Year EGSPA Target (10% below 1990)Suzuki Target (25% below 1990) Emission Reductio n (tonnes) Co-Benefits (C$2005 millions) Emission Reductio ns (tonnes) Co-Benefits (C$2005 millions) $13 per tonne$20 per tonne$13 per tonne$20 per tonne 2008 397,000$5.2$7.9622,000$8.1$12.4 2009 794,000$10.3$15.91,244,000$16.2$24.9 2010 1,191,000$15.5$23.81,866,000$24.3$37.3 2011 1,588,000$20.6$31.82,488,000$32.3$49.8 2012 1,985,000$25.8$39.73,110,000$40.4$62.2 2013 2,382,000$31.0$47.63,732,000$48.5$74.6 2014 2,779,000$36.1$55.64,354,000$56.6$87.1 2015 3,176,000$41.3$63.54,976,000$64.7$99.5 2016 3,573,000$46.4$71.55,598,000$72.8$112.0 2017 3,970,000$51.6$79.46,218,000$80.8$124.4 2018 4,367,000$56.8$87.36,840,000$88.9$136.8 2019 4,764,000$61.9$95.37,462,000$97.0$149.2 2020 5,161,000$67.1$103.28,084,000$105.1$161.7 Total 36,127,000$469.7$722.556,594,000$735.7$1,131.9

61. Control cost estimates of meeting the NS Environmental Goals and Sustainable Prosperity Act and Suzuki Foundation Targets (based on graduated emission reductions from 2008-2020) Year EGSPA Target (10% below 1990)Suzuki Target (25% below 1990) Emission Reductio n (tonnes) Control Cost (C$2005 millions) Emission Reductio ns (tonnes) Control Cost (C$2005 millions) $12 per tonne$142 per tonne $12 per tonne$142 per tonne 2008 397,000$4.8$56.4622,000$7.5$88.3 2009 794,000$4.8$56.41,244,000$7.5$88.3 2010 1,191,000$4.8$56.41,866,000$7.5$88.3 2011 1,588,000$4.8$56.42,488,000$7.5$88.3 2012 1,985,000$4.8$56.43,110,000$7.5$88.3 2013 2,382,000$4.8$56.43,732,000$7.5$88.3 2014 2,779,000$4.8$56.44,354,000$7.5$88.3 2015 3,176,000$4.8$56.44,976,000$7.5$88.3 2016 3,573,000$4.8$56.45,598,000$7.5$88.3 2017 3,970,000$4.8$56.46,218,000$7.5$88.3 2018 4,367,000$4.8$56.46,840,000$7.5$88.3 2019 4,764,000$4.8$56.47,462,000$7.5$88.3 2020 5,161,000$4.8$56.48,084,000$7.5$88.3 Total 36,127,000$61.9$732.956,594,000$97.0$1,148.2

62. CO2 Equivalent Reduction In Year 2020Cumulative Over 2008-2020 Low Estimate High EstimateLow Estimate High Estimate Maximum EGSP Act (5,150,000 tonnes) Damage Avoidance Climate Change Mitigation$185.8$6,348.0$1,300.6$44,436.2 Co-Benefits$67.1$103.2$469.7$722.5 Total Damage Avoidance$252.9$6,451.2$1,770.3$45,158.7 Control Costs$4.8$56.4$61.9$732.9 Ratio of Damage Avoidance to Control Costs53:1114:129:162:1 Net Benefits$248.1$6,394.8$1,708.4$44,425.8 Maximum Suzuki (8,075,000 tonnes) Damage Avoidance Climate Change Mitigation$291$9,943.3$2,037.4$69,610.6 Co-Benefits$105.1$1,61.7$735.7$1,131.9 Total Damage Avoidance$396.1$10,105.0$2,773.1$70,742.5 Control Costs$7.5$88.3$97$1,148.2 Ratio of Damage Avoidance to Control Costs53:1114:129:162:1 Net Benefits$388.6$10,016.7$2,676.1$69,594.3 Summary of damage avoidance benefits and control costs in year 2020 and cumulatively 2008-2020, (C$2005 mill.)

63. Cost-effectiveness: Every $1 invested in reducing GHG emissions through 2008-2020 will save $29 in avoided damages. When control costs are subtracted from benefits attained by avoiding climate change damages and achieving co-benefits (cleaner air), net cumulative benefit of achieving EGSPA greenhouse gas emissions target by 2020 is $846 million Meeting the Suzuki target will produce a net cumulative benefit of $1.8 billion Stern: "The benefits of strong, early action on climate change outweigh the costs."

64. Energy use, final demand, terajoules (TJ), Nova Scotia, 1978 to 2006

65. Power generation fuel mix for Nova Scotia Power, 1993-2006

66. Total road passenger movement, in Nova Scotia, 1990-2006 (millions of passenger-km)

67. Total road passenger movement, NS, by vehicle type, 1990 to 2006

68. Total GHG emissions from transportation, NS, 1990 to 2005 (kt CO2 equivalents)

69. Number of fatalities and injuries from road accidents per 100,000 residents, Nova Scotia, 1990 to 2005

70. Modal share (percentage) of transportation to work, Nova Scotia, 1996-2006

71. Reducing NS’s Ecological Footprint: eg) Transportation Drive less, walk & cycle more, use public transport, car-pool. Switch from 1/car -> 4/car, 3 days/week, reduces commuting footprint by 45% Coordinated land use/transportation planning is essential to bring about any substantial shift in transportation patterns

72. COSO x NO x VOCs 19903551978176 19953401807985 20023141637252 20052761357749 Indicator: Nova Scotia Criteria Air Contaminant Emissions (kg/capita) 1990-2005

73. NS Footprint Projected to 2020 Figure 16, The Nova Scotia Ecological Footprint, GPI Atlantic 2001

74. Can we do it? Percentage Waste Diversion in Nova Scotia

76. Full cost Accounting Results The new NS solid waste-resource system in 2000-01 produced net savings of at least $31.2 million, when compared to the old 1996-97 solid waste-resource system This translates into savings of $33 for each Nova Scotian, versus a cost of $25 as suggested when comparing strictly the operating and amortized capital costs of the two systems

77. Benefits Total benefits of 2000-01 system range from $79 million to $221 million =$84-$236 pp, incl: –$3.3 - $84.3 million in GHG emission reductions; –$9 - $67 million in air pollutant reductions –$18.8 million in extended landfill life –$28.6 million in energy savings from recycling –$6.5 - $8.9 million in employment benefits –$1.2 - $1.9 million in avoided liability costs –$1.1 - $1.7 million in export revenue of goods and services –$187,000 in additional tourism

78. Energy savings per tonne of waste recycled MaterialEnergy savings Paper8.5 million Btu Plastic20.1 million Btu Glass2.4 million Btu Steel Cans18.4 million Btu Aluminium Cans166.9 million Btu

79. Costs Total costs of 2000-01 solid waste-resource system were $96.6-102.7 million: –$72.4 m. in operating and amortized capital costs –$14.3 m. for beverage container recycling prog. –$2.7 million for used tire management program –$1.6 million in RRFB operating and admin costs –$5 - $9.5 million to increase participation –$220,000 - $1.8 million in nuisance costs

80. Conclusions: Accounts 1995 NS Solid Waste-Resource Strategy has led to a considerable net benefit, both in monetary and non-monetary terms: The solid waste-resource system in 2000- 01, despite increased operating and amortized capital costs, provided a net savings of between $31 million and $167.7 million compared to the operating and amortized capital costs of the old system

81. Indicators of Genuine Progress % diversion from landfills: 50% Access to curbside recycling in Nova Scotia jumped from less than 5% in 1989 to 99% today 76% of residents now have access to curbside organics pickup Access =highest rates in the country This is “genuine progress”

82. Conclusions: Indicators Nova Scotia is a leader both internationally and nationally in solid waste diversion. The accessibility, comprehensiveness, and levels of waste being composted and recycled have all improved since the introduction of the Solid Waste-Resource Strategy. BUT backsliding: Diversion 50% (2000) -> 36% today (a/c NS DOE) 41% (Statcan)

83. Per capita solid waste disposal (kg) for Canada and provinces, 2004 and 2006

84. Diversion rate of waste by province and territory, 2004 and 2006

85. Per capita solid waste disposal (kg per capita per year), Nova Scotia, 1996/97-2006/07

86. Residential recycling rate, Canada and provinces, 2000-2004

87. Percent of residents who compost, Canada and provinces, 1994 and 2006

88. Volunteerism: Atlantic Provinces lead (formal rate)

90. Measuring What we Value - Leaving a Sustainable and Prosperous Nova Scotia for our Children

91. Genuine Progress Index for Atlantic Canada Indice de progrès véritable - Atlantique www.gpiatlantic.org