1. The Transition Movement From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience Event, location Date Name Transition Network

2. Agenda  Peak Oil and its effects  Climate Change  Economic contraction  PO + CC + EC ≠ “business as usual”  Responses at different levels  global, national, local, personal  What is a transition town  Examples and achievements so far  Q&A discussion --------------------  RESILIENCE

3. Peak Oil we’ll never “run out” of oil we’ll never “run out” of oil we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil we’re running out of cheap, plentiful oil oil underpins oil underpins –industrial development –agriculture –economics –population about ½ way through it… about ½ way through it… it’s going to decline it’s going to decline

4. Peak Oil – a theory? 98 oil producers 98 oil producers

5. Peak Oil – a theory? Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers

6. Peak Oil – discovery  US discovery peaked in 1930s  production peaked in 1971  UK discovery peaked in 1975  production peaked in 1999  world discovery peaked in 1960s  production will peak in 20??

7. Peak Oil – net energy on the downslope

8. Peak gas for UK Source – National Grid Source – National Grid

9. UK energy balance 1965 - 2010

10. Peak Oil vs Peak Exports Oil producers getting richer Oil producers getting richer Developing their own economies Developing their own economies Middle East growth: 5-6% pa Middle East growth: 5-6% pa Russia growth: 7% pa Russia growth: 7% pa Increasing their domestic consumption of oil Increasing their domestic consumption of oil fuelled by subsidised prices fuelled by subsidised prices Less available for countries they export to. Like us … Less available for countries they export to. Like us …

11. Peak Oil – what’s it like?  terminal decline  demand destruction  examples:  1990s: North Korea  1990s: Cuba  2000: UK fuel crisis  Now: Poor countries

12. Climate Change – the end of the debate Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas concentrations The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states: Upsala Glacier, Argentina

13. Climate Change – the feedbacks kicking in?

14. Why the Arctic Matters Polar Science Center Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington

15. Peak Oil & Climate Change

16. What can be done? Global Global  Oil Depletion Protocol  Contraction and Convergence  Kyoto National National  TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing) Community Community  Transition Towns, cities, villages, rural Personal Personal  “The work that reconnects”  self directed re-education

17. Peak oil, climate change, food and the Scottish parliament  Unanimously passed motion  “…Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for global food shortages; … food price inflation now exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other relevant bodies to … seek solutions that take account of the growing pressures on agriculture from both climate change and the rush to biofuels as well as the peak in oil production … ensuring the long-term capacity and capability of our food supply; … encourage the development of local supply chains through public procurement, address the imbalance in power between the big supermarkets and our food producers....” (June 2008)

18. Transition and Somerset CC (UK)  acknowledges [...] that the independence of the Transition Movement is key to its grass roots appeal.  fully endorses the Transition Town Movement and subscribes to the principles and ethos of the organisation's goals to reduce dependence on fuel oil and create more sustainable communities.  commits to providing support and assistance to all towns in Somerset that wish to join this initiative [...].  [...] allocating funds to assist in achieving the outcomes of the Transition Towns [...] requiring all directorates to support Transition Initiatives  seeks to become the first Transition Authority in the UK.  agrees to undertake a review of its budgets and services to reduce dependence on fuel oil and produce an energy descent action plan in line with the principles of the Transition Initiative. (Motion unanimously pass by Somerset County Council in July 2008)

19. Monteveglio council, Italy  Oil and fossil fuel depletion is this administration’s priority, to be implemented through an Energy Descent Plan to turn Monteveglio into a “Post Carbon” City.  Strategic partnership with the Association Monteveglio Città di Transizione [Transition Town Monteveglio] with whom this administration shares:  a view of the future (the depletion of energy resources and the significance of a limit to economic development)  methods (bottom-up community participation)  objectives (to make our community more resilient, i.e. better prepared to face a low energy future)  an optimistic approach (although the times are hard, changes to come will include great opportunities to improve the whole community’s quality of life).  Begin a participative and institutional process to promote Monteveglio as a Transition Town, with the direct participation of the whole community and a final statement by the City Council.  Define CO2 emission measurement tools and containment policies well beyond EU targets and in line with the global objective of 350 ppm. excerpt from Monteveglio “Decree”

20. Can we respond? Going up the energy slope, we used Going up the energy slope, we used –ingenuity –creativity –adaptability –cooperation Going back down… –if we’re early enough –if we’re cooperative –the future could be a whole lot better…

21. What’s stopping us? (1) Dominant myths of today Dominant myths of today  Things are getting better  Tomorrow will be like today, but bigger and shinier  Economic growth is good  We must keep shopping  Technology will solve all our problems  There is no alternative  You can’t stop progress  Living standards are rising  Humans are selfish and greedy by nature  The market will solve it  We’re all doomed…

22. What are our stories for the future? Industrial Ascent Energy useEnergy use Resource useResource use Environmental degradationEnvironmental degradation PollutionPollution Peak Energy ? Techno-Fantasy Green-Tech Stability Earth stewardship Post Mad Max Collapse Great Grand Children Agriculture 10.000yrs BP Industrial Revolution Baby Boom Pre-industrial culture Historical Time Future Time Creative Descent (Permaculture)

23. Changing the myth from…

25. What’s stopping us? (2) Cognitive Overload Theory (fruit salad experiment) Cognitive Overload Theory (fruit salad experiment) Short term vs long term thinking Short term vs long term thinking –rational vs emotional –neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian Belief in authority figures Belief in authority figures –electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose –obedient children survive Sunk cost, or investment in the present Sunk cost, or investment in the present –“it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job depends on him not believing it” Optimism Optimism –an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling

26. Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Americas)

27. Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Aus/NZ)

28. Who’s designing a creative, positive energy descent? (Europe and beyond)

29. Who’s designing creative, positive energy descent? (UK and Ireland)

30. How are they organising? Transition Model Understands:  PO + CC + £  ≠  “Business as usual”  Adaptable, creative  Start now 7 Buts “ingredients”

31. Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1) I’d get involved, but... 1) we don’t have funding 2) “they” won’t let us 3) turf wars with other green groups

32. Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2) I’d get involved, but... 4) no one cares about the environment 5) it’s too late anyway 6) I don’t have the right qualifications 7) I don’t have the energy for it

33. The Transition Response

34. Transition Model - Step 1  Set up an initiating group and design its transformation from the outset  atrophy  personal agendas  humility  stages 2-5  reforms from subgroups

35. Transition Model - Step 2  Awareness raising  allies and networks  prepare community  movies  talks  events

36. Transition Model - Step 3  Lay the foundations  other groups  existing projects  official bodies  businesses  collaboration

37. Transition Model - Step 4  Organise a Great Unleashing  coming of age  powerful, passionate, informative, inspirational  timing  content  making connections

38. Transition Model - Step 5  Form “working groups”  starting new groups  bringing in existing groups  guidelines  training  working groups and the steering group

39. Transition Model - Step 6  Use “Open Space”  shouldn’t work!  one long coffee break  World Café  Harrison Owen - Open Space Technology: A User’s Guide  Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ - The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future

40. Transition Model - Step 7  Develop visible practical manifestations of your project  not a talking shop  chose carefully  lure in fence-sitters  team building potential  getting dirt under your fingernails

41. Transition Model - Step 8  Facilitate the Great Reskilling  repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural building, loft insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is endless…)  eg WWOOFing

42. Transition Model - Step 9  Build bridges to Local Government  becomes crucial  don’t wait too long…  open door  Community Development Plan  elections…!

43. Transition Model - Step 10  Honour the Elders  elders as a community resource  1930 to 1960 – moving from oil scarcity to abundance  oral history  community infrastructure  not about going backwards

44. Transition Model - Step 11  Let it go where it wants to go…  focus on the questions  unleash the community  any sense of control is illusory

45. Transition Model - Step 12  Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action Plan  assess current situation  create 15-20 year vision for all key areas  integrate with community plan if possible  identify steps needed to get there  start the work

46. What kind of things are they up to…? loads of awareness raising talks, movies, discussions skillsharing seed sharing local food directories local currencies oral history archives planting fruit trees starting up locally owned renewable energy companies garden share schemes energy saving advice for the community central buying of trees for “city orchards” mending courses loads of reskilling events, eg Dr Bike, composting toilets, reedbeds working with local schools cutting out plastic bags and holding workshops on how to make fabric ones out of scraps getting sustainability books into their libraries car share schemes community supported agriculture schemes guerilla gardening permaculture courses Typical activities

47. What are they up to…? (UK) Taken from the May/June 2010 Roundup - a trawl of websites and googlealerts from around the world  Portobello, Scotland - short courses in vegetable growing and raised bed construction  TT Brixton - Master Gardener training course  TT Sevenoaks - including a seedling swap, advice on raising chickens and bees and a food hub  New Forest Transition – a new Local Food Market  Unleashings in Hebden Bridge, TT Malvern  TT Totnes published the EDAP  TT Finsbury in London – video workshops  TT Halesworth – upcycling (mending) project  Portobello – home water checks  TT Berkhamstead’s – car free day  TT Horncastle – Nappucino event (skillshare re alternatives to “disposable” nappies)

48. What are they up to…? (Europe and US) Taken from the May/June 2010 Roundup - a trawl of websites and googlealerts from around the world  New TT initiative started up in Witzenhausen, Germany  Transition Hub starting in Brussels, Belgium  New TT initiative started in Heidelberg west, Germany  Unleashings in TT Carrboro-Chapel Hill and TT Whatcom in US  T San Francisco mulling over a local currency – “bernalbucks”  T Kurilpa and the Brisbane Transition Hub had David Holmgren (permaculture co-founder) at big awareness raising event  US TV show called ‘Sustainable Today’ featured David Johnson and Jim Newcomer speaking about the transition in Portland, Oregon  Transition Tasmania – ‘produce swap’ and no-knead bread skill share  TT Blackwood in Oz – seed share event  TT Invercargill, New Zealand were given a community garden

49. Our choice…  We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.

50.  Percentage of food consumed locally that was produced within a given radius  Ratio of car parking space to productive land use  Degree of engagement in practical relocalization work by local community  Amount of traffic on local roads  Number of businesses owned by local people  Percentage of local trade carried out in local currency  Proportion of the community employed locally  Percentage of essential goods manufactured within a given radius  Percentage of local building materials used in new housing developments  Number of 16-year-olds able to grow 10 different varieties of vegetables to a given degree of basic competency  Percentage of medicines prescribed locally that have been produced within a given radius Resilience Indicators

51. Climate Change – weather extremes