1. Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization
Leading through Learning 1

3. Member Countries Indonesia (1965) Lao PDR (1965) Malaysia (1965)
Philippines (1965)
Singapore (1965)
Thailand (1965)
Cambodia (1971)
Brunei Darussalam (1984)
Vietnam (1992)
Myanmar (1998)
Timor-Leste (2006)

4. Associate Members Australia (1973) France (1973) New Zealand (1974)
Canada (1988)
Germany (1990)
Netherlands (1993)
Spain (2007)
United Kingdom (2013)

5. Affiliate Members
International Council for Open and Distance Education (1999)
University of Tsukuba (2009)
British Council (2010)

6. Vision
The leading organization for enhancing regional understanding and cooperation in education, science and culture for a better quality of life in Southeast Asia
Mission
To enhance regional understanding, cooperation and unity of purpose among Member Countries for a better quality of life through
the establishment of networks and partnerships,
the provision of fora among policy makers and experts, and
the promotion of sustainable human resource development

8. Futures, Foresight and the Development of Education in Southeast Asia
Dr Witaya Jeradechakul Director, SEAMEO Secretariat Bangkok, Thailand

9. https://alumni.tsukuba.ac.jp/
Imagine the Future

10. The Futures Not just the Future but Futures
Futurists can not predict the future. No one can. A prediction is intended to be true and accurate statement. But we all can forecast futures. A forecast is intended to be logical and useful statement about the futures.
Futures studies help institutions and individuals envision, design, and move towards preferred futures rather than passively accepting whatever “will be”.
But to be effective the process of forecasting and envisioning must be done continuously and not just a one-shot activity

11. The Futures and Time Horizon
But when is the present, when does the future begin?
Most people are only interested in “now”.
Some planners and policy-makers may be interested in the next five, ten, or maybe 15 years.
Futurists begin to take interest from between 20 to 50—maybe 100—years from now.
Beyond 100 years is speculation, imagination and fiction.

12. The Futures and Time Horizon
DEGREE OF PARTICIPATION
futures research
planning
TIMELINE AND
DEGREE OF FLUX
administration
MAGNITUDE OF INTENDED ACTIONS
James Dator, University of Hawaii

13. Plausible versus Preferred Futures
Plausible Futures
Preferred Futures
What might happen: trends
forecasts, scenarios
We need to understand this
Values, mission, vision,
Goals, strategies, actions
Dreams and imagination
We need to create this

14. Impact and Uncertainty
high impact
Potential Drivers
high impact, high uncertainty
Drivers
high impact, low uncertainty
low uncertainty
high uncertainty
Background Trends
low uncertainty, low impact
Inconsequential
high uncertainty, low impact
low impact

15. What is Foresight
Systematic attempts to look into the future (of science, society, economy – and their interactions) in order to promote social, environmental and economic benefit
Foresight study is a process of anticipating and managing changes

16. Key Elements of Foresight Study
Structured Anticipation
Interactive and Participative
Methods
New networks
Strategic Visioning
For present day decision and action
Social Benefits and Disbenefits

17. Why Foresight is Important
Globalization
Constraints on government spending
Change in management and industrial production
Changes in the structure of and demand for knowledge production
Increasing uncertainties for the future

18. Framework of Foresight
Inputs
Strategic scanning
of environment/ Delphi
Emerging issues/ trends analysis
Systematic thinking/ causal layout
analysis
Scenarios visioning, backcasting,
roadmaps
Foresight process
Analysis
Interpretation
Prospection
Outputs
Reports, presentations, workshops
Multimedia
Strategy development and
strategic planning
Strategy

19. Example used by SEAMEO in developing Post-2015 Education agenda
Second Discussion + Analysis
Global picture of Education/ EFA/ MDGs including Issues & Trends
Country Priorities, Issues and Challenges on Education + Regional Initiatives on EFA Goals and MDGs
Consultations using Foresight
and 4 Futures
Gap Analysis
Delphi Survey
(2 rounds)
Presentation of Findings and the Post-2015 Agenda to SEAMEO Education Ministers and other Stakeholders
Futures/Preferred/ Worst Case Scenario, etc
Pre-2015 versus Post-2015 – What is missing and what are the new targets
Selected target groups
Verify the agenda
First Discussion + Analysis
(Global versus Country Issues)
Gap analysis
New set of education agenda
Example used by SEAMEO
in developing Post-2015
Education agenda

20. Range of Futures/ Foresight between “Push and Pull”
Foresight about
the future of
technology
aimed at
technology ..
and
priority setting
Foresight about
the future of
technology
aimed at
identifying
technology for
economic and
social change
Foresight about
social and
economic
needs and ways
in which these
might be solved
with the help of
Technology
Foresight about
social and
economic
needs aimed
at identifying
ways to alleviate
conditions

21. SEAMEO Consultation and Development of Post-2015 Education Scenarios and Post-EFA Education Agenda in Southeast Asia

22. Development of Post-2015 Education Agenda in Southeast Asia
Post-2015 short
( ) &
long-term ( )
recommendations
to address the
4 future futures
guided by the 4 futures but other
parameters such as
the ASEAN Community,
values and cultures
Transnational issues
ASEAN Community
Social and cultural diversity
Lifelong learning
Public health
Drivers
of change
Emerging
Issues &
Trends
Demographic change
Governance
Integration and mobility
ICT
21st Century skills
Economic growth
Environment deterioration
and sustainability
Next step:
Determining
preferred
future
4 Generic
Futures
of Manoa School
Achievements
In Education
Challenges

23. Development of SEAMEO Strategic Plan (2011-2020) Golden SEAMEO
12 SEAMEO initiatives
”business as
usual” scenario
knowledge management
SEAMEO Congress
scenario
building
Golden SEAMEO scenario
SEAMEO College
mentoring
key
success
factors
strategic
validation
strategies
“live and let die” scenario
grouping the
initiatives:
unique, shared
and common

24. Imagine
Imagine there's no heaven It’s easy if you try No hell below us Above us only sky Imagine all the people living for today Imagine there's no countries It isn’t hard to do Nothing to kill or die for And no religion too Imagine all the people living life in peace You, you may say I’m a dreamer, but I'm not the only one I hope some day you'll join us And the world will be as one

25. Imagine
Imagine no possessions I wonder if you can No need for greed or hunger A brotherhood of man Imagine all the people sharing all the world You, you may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one I hope some day you'll join us And the world will live as one

26. Futures, Foresight and the Development of Education in Southeast Asia
Thank you very much.
Futures, Foresight and the Development of Education in Southeast Asia
Dr Witaya Jeradechakul
Director, SEAMEO Secretariat Bangkok, Thailand