2. “There are risks and costs to a program of action. But they are far less than the long-range risks and costs of comfortable inaction.” John Fitzgerald Kennedy (1917-1963)

3. The Import Risk Analysis Framework

4. Simplified Hypothetical Risk Analysis Process 5. Identify Stakeholders. 6. Inform Stakeholders of Project & Seek Comments on Preliminary Hazard Identification 7. Conduct the Detailed Hazard Identification 8. Conduct the Risk Assessment  Release assessment  Exposure assessment  Consequence assessment  Risk estimation

5. Hazard Identification “What can go wrong?” The process of identifying pathogens that could potentially produce adverse consequences to the importing country

6. Hazard Identification: Screening Criteria To be considered in Risk Assessment, a pathogen must be: 1. Appropriate to the species being imported 2. Present or potentially present in the exporting country. 3. Absent from the importing country, or, if present, it should be an OIE-listed disease or a disease subject to a program of eradication or control.

7. Hazard Identification In Pathogen Risk Analysis, each potential hazard is assessed separately. Thus there will be a separate risk assessment for each hazard.

8. Hazard Identification Each identified hazard must be dealt with separately in a reasoned, logical, referenced discussion, including: its likely presence in the exporting country, based on: official and unofficial data sources surveillance and control programmes (if present) evaluation of Competent Authority zoning (if present)

9. Hazard Identification If a commodity is a potential vector for introduction of the pathogen, it is classified as a potential hazard for further consideration in the Risk Assessment step. If no potential hazards are identified, the RA process is terminated.

10. Hazards Identified in the 9 Risk Analyses Risk AnalysisNo. Genera / spp. Considered No. Hazards in Preliminary List Hazard: Host Ratio Salmonids for human consumption 22 species853.86:1 Live ornamental finfish to Australia 605 genera1040.17:1 Juvenile kingfish from Australia to New Zealand 1 species4242:1 Blue shrimp (Litopenaeus stylirostris) from Brunei to Fiji 1 species2121:1 Postlarval Macrobrachium from Fiji to Cook Islands 1 species6161:1

11. Hazards identified in the 9 Pathogen Risk Analyses (continued) Risk AssessmentNo. Genera / spp. Considered No. Hazards in Preliminary List Hazard: Host Ratio Ornamental fish & marine invertebrates to NZ 394 genera and species >5001.27:1 Adult Macrobrachium from Hawaii to NZ 1 species7676:1 Menhaden (Brevoortia sp.) from USA to Australia 1 species4242:1 Pacific oysters from Tasmania to NSW 1 species18 (includes pests) 18:1 Mean for single species RA (6 studies) 1 species43.3 hazards43.3:1 Mean for multi-species RA (3 studies) 340 species230 hazards0.67:1

12. Risk Analysis for Giant River Prawn: A Practical Approach Initial Findings lack of information on stock history & health status & on national disease status for both importing & exporting countries, necessitated that all potential pathogens reported from river prawn on a world-wide basis be considered. Since all pathogens would be “hypothetical”, detailed pathways analyses would not be included.

13. Risk Analysis of Giant River Prawn: A Practical Approach Compile a listing of pathogens. To be included in the preliminary list, a pathogen must: be an identifiable biological agent or a disease believed to be produced by a single (as yet unidentified) biological agent have been recorded from Macrobrachrium rosenbergii (any life cycle stage or geographic locality) Initial Findings: 61 pathogens/diseases of potential concern

14. Risk Analysis of Giant River Prawn: A Practical Approach Screen the list of pathogens. To be considered a potential hazard, a pathogen must: Be reported or suspected to infect PL river prawn Not be a ubiquitous free-living organism that is capable of becoming an opportunistic pathogen of river prawn Cause significant disease outbreaks in river prawn or other aquatic organisms Plausibly have the possibility of being present in populations of river prawn in Fiji

15. Results of Hazard Identification Two diseases of viral etiology were identified as potential hazards White spot disease (WSD) caused by WSSV White tail disease (WTD) due to Macrobrachrium rosenbergii nodavirus (MrNV) and/or Extra small virus (XSV)

16. Key Points Hazards (pathogens) are assessed separately against predetermined set criteria - they must be appropriate to the commodity, potentially present in the exporting country, & potentially absent from the importing country (or under a control programme). Risk analysis stops if no potential hazards are identified. Some pathogens are easily recognized to be hazards (i.e. OIE listed) but for most, basic information is lacking (“absence of reports” does not mean “absence of pathogen”)

17. Key Points In practice, Hazard Identification involves: Extensive literature searches Compilation of a table listing for each possible hazard: Host specificity Status in exporting country Status in importing country Pathogenicity Life cycle stage(s) infected References Other relevant information