1. ONS Economic Forum Email:economicforum@ons.gov.uk Twitter:@ONS #ONSeconomy Website: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get- involved/events/events/economic-forum/index.htmlhttp://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get- involved/events/events/economic-forum/index.html 15 January 2015 1

2. What’s new Peter Patterson, Deputy Chief Economic Adviser ONS Economic Forum 15 January 2015 2

3. Latest ONS economic statistics, including quarterly national accounts New quarterly release on indicators of economic well-being NA measure of living standards - relationship between RHDI and GDP growth Variations in the inflation experience of UK households What’s new - outline 3

4. Sharp fall in inflation to 0.5%, record low 4 % changes on a year earlier

5. GDP growth stabilised in 2.5-3% annual range during past year 5

6. Revisions to three measures of GDP 6

7. Mean revisions to GDP growth estimates 7 Source: OECD 4 time intervals: M5_P 5 mths Y1_P 1 year Y2_P 2 years Y3_P 3 years Percentage points

8. Services maintain the momentum of growth 8 More than half of growth in services output (or 70% of cumulative GDP growth) since 2011 is due to 3 sectors: Other professional service activities Admin & support service activities Real estate activities

9. Sectoral financial balances 9

10. UK current account deficit 10

11. Primary income balance 11

12. Economic Well-being Q3 2014 Traditional measures of progress such as GDP are increasingly considered an incomplete picture of the state of the nation. First of regular quarterly bulletins to coincide with QNA. Economic Well-being provides a fuller understanding of the economy & how it impacts on national well-being To give a more rounded and comprehensive basis for assessing changes in material well-being 12

13. GDP, GDP per head and NNDI per head 13

14. GDP and household income per head 14

15. Cumulative contributions to growth since 2007 – GDP and RHDI 15 GDP = £1,618bn in 2011

16. Variation in the inflation experience of UK households Developed alongside the Johnson Review, this paper is one response to their second recommendation: the regular publication of inflation indices for sub-groups in the UK Uses micro-level expenditure data and detailed price indices to estimate inflation rates for: o Expenditure and income deciles o Households with and without children o Retired and non-retired households Published 15 th December 2014, it is the first UK paper to do this on a CPI consistent basis Full methodology and supporting documents available online, headline results presented here 16

17. Lower income households have experienced higher inflation rates... Note: 1= lowest income, 10= highest income 17

18. ... as have lower expenditure households Note: 1= lowest expenditure, 10= highest expenditure 18

19. Retired households have experienced higher price increases than non-retired households... 19

20. ... mostly because of Energy & Fuel costs 20

21. Headline results, average inflation 2003 - 2013 % Group Inflation Decile of 12910 Disposable Income 2.92.72.52.6 Expenditure 3.73.32.3 Households with Children2.4 Households without Children2.7 Retired Households 2.8 Non-Retired Households2.5 CPI 2.6 21