1. RAM Modelling in the Project Design Phase Friday 30 th April, 2010 Paul Websdane Reliability Modelling for Business Decisions Asset Management Council – WA Chapter & Maintenance Engineering Society of Australia

2. RAM Modelling for Business Decisions Project Design and Execute Phases Project Design and Execute Phases –Steps in Process. –Examples & Learnings. –Benefits. RAM in Operations phase RAM in Operations phase –Barriers & Benefits.

3. Introduction –Snr Reliability Engineer – K2 Technology. –Experience in Oil and Gas, Alumina, Mining, Condition Monitoring, Pumping. –RAM Tools & Packages; Many different packages are available. Many different packages are available. Each have strengths and weaknesses. Each have strengths and weaknesses. –Used RAM for analysis of large new projects, small design changes, tank overhaul scenarios, decisions on redundancy.

4. RAM Modelling Overview Tool to analyse and predict the availability / reliability of an asset or facility. Tool to analyse and predict the availability / reliability of an asset or facility. Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD) used. Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD) used. Use Equipment Capability & Reliability data. Use Equipment Capability & Reliability data. Maintenance Strategies & Schedules (optimise). Maintenance Strategies & Schedules (optimise). Overall production impact - $$$$. Overall production impact - $$$$. Improved business decisions. Improved business decisions.

5. RAM models in the Design Phase Evaluate, Validate and Optimize design Evaluate, Validate and Optimize design –Availability & Reliability targets. –Production capability. –Bottlenecks & Big hitters – Critical Equipment. –Redundancy levels. –Sparing. Can “Design In” Reliability Can “Design In” Reliability –Focus improvement efforts early in design.

6. Model Basic Steps Understand system operating context, production impact and cost of downtime. Understand system operating context, production impact and cost of downtime. Document assumptions. Document assumptions. Build the RBD and Reliability Data Register. Build the RBD and Reliability Data Register. Populate with Reliability Data and details of Maintenance Strategy / Shutdowns. Populate with Reliability Data and details of Maintenance Strategy / Shutdowns. Analyse the System. Analyse the System. Update and refine over time. Update and refine over time. Conduct Sensitivity analyses. Conduct Sensitivity analyses.

7. Reliability Block Diagrams Build Reliability Block Diagram from P&ID, system drawings, PFDs; Build Reliability Block Diagram from P&ID, system drawings, PFDs; –RBD’s represent the connections between system components from a reliability perspective. –Does not show process flow.

8. Reliability Block Diagrams 3 x 50% 2 x 100%

9. RBD’s – Examples

10. Operating Context – what we need Design Capacity of each block. Design Capacity of each block. Redundancy. Redundancy. Impact on production Impact on production –No impact – why in the model? Single Point Vulnerabilities! Single Point Vulnerabilities! –Very important – do not miss these. Bypass capacity on failure Bypass capacity on failure –Inbuilt work arounds that protect production.

11. Production Impact Full Production 32 kT/d Each Turbine 8 kT/d For full production system requires 4 turbines online at all times (32kT/d)

12. Production Impact Full Production 30 kT/d Each Pump 15 kT/d For full production system requires 2 pumps online at all times (15kT/d)

13. Production Impact Bypass capacity – refines model with actual production impact – also helps with buy in from operations. Bypass capacity – refines model with actual production impact – also helps with buy in from operations. Must understand the linkages between key elements in the model. Must understand the linkages between key elements in the model.

14. Failure Modes / Reliability Data Understand dominant functional failures. Understand dominant functional failures. Reliability data sourced from Reliability data sourced from –CMMS & Facility Operating History. –Experienced operators. –OREDA. –Vendor.

15. Reliability Data CMMS CMMS –Maintenance and failure history. –Data accuracy? Job recording? –How accurate is this across industry? –Be careful – garbage in, garbage out. Facility Operating / Trip history Facility Operating / Trip history –Often stored outside CMMS. –See your friendly Reliability Engineer.

16. Reliability Data Operators & Maintenance Resources Operators & Maintenance Resources –Very valuable information resource. –BUT – difficult to quantify losses without data. –Useful information on Bypass capacity. –Engage operations and maintenance where possible.

17. Reliability Data Vendors and OREDA Vendors and OREDA –Some vendors have good history – check operating context and environment. –OREDA is of use – ensure a reasonable population of equipment is available. Useful Reliability Data is available – understand limitations and use with care. Useful Reliability Data is available – understand limitations and use with care.

18. Reliability Data Register Capture key data & references. Capture key data & references. Hold workshop with operations & maintenance to validate / review data & assumptions. Hold workshop with operations & maintenance to validate / review data & assumptions.

19. Analyse the Model Outputs Model outputs – typical. Model outputs – typical.

20. Model Outputs - time

21. Model Outputs

22. Unit Interventions

24. Update and Refining the Model Assess Design Changes Assess Design Changes –Latest updates. –Quantify improvements. –Incorporate maintenance (RCM). Shutdown analysis. Shutdown analysis. Sensitivity Studies. Sensitivity Studies. Production Profiles. Production Profiles.

25. Design Changes Add newer component (high reliability) Add newer component (high reliability) –System availability before – 98.0% –System availability after - 99.2% Improvement of 1.2% or 4.4 days production Improvement of 1.2% or 4.4 days production @ $1million per day = $4.4m savings

26. Design Changes Redesign to save cost! Redesign to save cost! Reduction in availability 0.5% or 1.8 days production Reduction in availability 0.5% or 1.8 days production @ $1million per day = $1.8m COST to business. Can demonstrate impact of changes on facility performance – better decisions are made. Can demonstrate impact of changes on facility performance – better decisions are made.

27. Sensitivity Studies Critical Equipment improvement options; Critical Equipment improvement options; –water washing frequencies. –more reliable equipment. –maint strategy changes. –Redundancy installed. Show me the money $$$$! Show me the money $$$$! Shutdown analysis – modify frequency and durations – optimise. Shutdown analysis – modify frequency and durations – optimise.

28. Sensitivity Studies – Savings $$

30. Production Profiles - Refining Highlights system deficiencies over time. Highlights system deficiencies over time. Applications Applications –well deterioration over time. –Tank volume decrease (scaling) over time.

31. Improving Business Decisions Predict performance over time. Predict performance over time. Validate design changes. Validate design changes. Quantify ($) cost and impact of failure. Quantify ($) cost and impact of failure. Identifies Critical Equipment Identifies Critical Equipment –where to focus improvement efforts. –where to focus training. –where to consider redundancy. –where to hold critical spares (MTTR).

32. Asset’s Operations Phase Traditionally this is done poorly (if at all). Traditionally this is done poorly (if at all). Barriers Barriers –Lack of buy in / support from operations & maintenance. –involve O&M in model build and assumptions. –Modelling – inaccuracy, no understanding of operating context. –Rigorous review of data and facility configuration – engage operations.

33. Asset’s Operations Phase Barriers Barriers –Lack of confidence in model / data. –Use valid data, document assumptions, involve operations & maintenance. Review actual performance compared to design over time – feedback into model. Review actual performance compared to design over time – feedback into model. Consider the model to be “live” – regularly update to improve accuracy. Consider the model to be “live” – regularly update to improve accuracy.

34. Operations Phase - Benefits Highlight improvement opportunities. Highlight improvement opportunities. Justify cost of upgrades. Justify cost of upgrades. Quantify BENEFITS of past projects. Quantify BENEFITS of past projects. Assess effectiveness of maintenance. Assess effectiveness of maintenance. Assess risk of shutdowns – optimize shutdown intervals. Assess risk of shutdowns – optimize shutdown intervals.

35. Summary RAM modelling is a valuable tool in Reliability Engineering. RAM modelling is a valuable tool in Reliability Engineering. Important to use valid data and involve operations & maintenance. Important to use valid data and involve operations & maintenance. Useful in all industries, for large and small projects. Useful in all industries, for large and small projects. Can improve business decisions by quantifying loss and benefits in $ terms. Can improve business decisions by quantifying loss and benefits in $ terms.

36. Questions?