1. 15 th TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference Tuesday, May 19 th, 2015 – Atlantic City, NJ Integrating Travel Demand Models & SHRP2 C11 Tools: Statewide Assessment of the Broader Economic Benefits from Transportation Investment Eirini Kastrouni, Elham Shayanfar, Lei Zhang, Paul Schonfeld, Subrat Mahapatra National Transportation Center @Maryland University of Maryland – College Park 1 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

2. Presentation Outline National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu 2 1.Introduction, Research Motivation & Research Objective 2.Methodology & Tools Overview 3.Case Study 4.Estimation Results 5.Conclusions & Research Contribution 6.Future Research Directions

3. Introduction 3 How are transportation improvements evaluated? First-level: direct benefits travel time savings, vehicle operating cost reductions, safety benefits and emission reductions Second-level: wider economic benefits positively affect the intensity of economic activities due to agglomeration effects production cost reduction, increased gross domestic product, and growth of business sectors and income in the affected region National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

4. Research Motivation 4 Develop a comprehensive framework and a prototype tool for estimating the broader economic benefits of transportation improvements for Maryland. Current State-of-Practice Lack of satisfactory and transferable tools Benefit-cost analysis tools often focus on direct benefits only, e.g., time savings, accident reduction Broader economic benefits (productivity gain, spillover, market accessibility, etc.) are often ignored National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

5. Research Objective 5 The objective of this research is to quantify the wider economic benefits of transportation infrastructure investment. To achieve this: Integration of the Maryland travel demand model with the SHRP2 C11 tools Integration demonstration through a case study Estimation of travel time reliability improvements and changes in market access in performance and monetary terms. National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

6. Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) 6 Statewide four-step travel demand model currently used by MSHA Trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and traffic assignment Allows consistent estimates of future development impacts on transportation performance measures. MSTM study area: Maryland, Delaware, DC, & parts of Virginia, West Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

7. Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) 7 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

8. SHRP2 C11: Wider Economic Benefits of Transportation 8 Buyer-Supplier Market Access Tool: Inputs: population, employment, GRP, generalized travel costs Output: effective density (measure of accessibility to employment), productivity Reliability Tool: Inputs: facility attributes, traffic, capacity, value of travel time, incidents, reliability Output: incident delay, recurring delay, delay costs, cost of unreliability, etc. Accounting Framework Tool: Assigns a dollar value to the previously estimated benefits National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

9. MSTM & SHRP2 C11 7-Level Integration Framework 9 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

10. Customizing SHRP2 C11 Tools for MD 10 Maryland-Specific Parameters in lieu of the Default SHRP2 C11 Parameters  Impedance Decay Parameter: behavioral parameter that captures spatial distribution of trips and market proximity based on average trip length in the study area ~ α = 1 (Zhang et al., 2013)  Value of Time VOT: MSTM-specific value of time: 23.3 and 106.4 cents per min for personal & commercial travel respectively  Reliability Ratio RR: MSHA’s value of 0.75 for congestion- relief projects  Productivity Elasticity with respect to market access: μ = 0.01 (He et al., 2015) National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

11. 11 Wide Range of Projects:  Large-Scale Construction  Toll Lanes/Managed Lanes  Local Connectors  Transit Projects  Freight-related Projects MSTM & SHRP2 C11 Integration National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

12. Case Study: Inter-County Connector 12 Project Information  6-lane toll highway  9 entry/exit points Study Area  13 counties National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

13. Market Accessibility 13 Buyer-Supplier Market Access Tool Results National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

14. Travel Time Reliability 14 Travel Time Reliability Improvement Results National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

15. Accounting Framework 15 Value of Total Annual Benefits from ICC Construction National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

16. Estimation Results: Summary 16  Direct Benefits  Broader Economic Benefits  Project Benefit and Cost Summary Travel Time$311.6M Fuel$8.3M Maintenance$4.7M Market Accessibility $69.8M Travel Time Reliability$0.2M Project Cost$2,560M Direct Benefits$324.6M Broader Economic Benefits$70M Broader Economic Benefit as a Percentage of Direct Benefit 22% Note: All benefits are annual figures. Cost estimates consider initial construction only. National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

17. 17 National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu Other Case Studies Case Studies ICCETLLOCAL BRT Total Project Cost$2,560 M$756 M$75 M$519 M Annual Direct Project Benefits$325 M$63 M$6.3 M$47 M Annual Broader Economic Benefits $70 M$5.5 M$1.1 M$23.1 M Broader Economic Benefits as a Percentage of Direct Benefits 22%9%18%49% ICC: Inter-County Connector ETL: Express Toll Lanes LOCAL: Local Connector BRT: Bus Rapid Transit

18. Conclusions 18 Summary 7-level integration framework is applicable to capital investment, operational investment, and demand management projects anywhere in MD Customized for MD and regional differences considered Research Contribution Analysis of the economic benefits of new transportation infrastructure investment by integrating an economic analysis tool with a statewide travel demand model; SHRP2 C11 tools’ parameter customization for Maryland in a bid to obtain sounder, region-specific results; Integration demonstration on a much debated case study, the Inter-County Connector (ICC). National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

19. 19 Future Research Directions A Comprehensive Framework National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

20. Acknowledgement 20 This research is jointly funded by the Maryland State Highway Administration (MSHA) and the National Transportation Center at the University of Maryland (NTC@Maryland). National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu

21. Thank You! Questions, Comments, and Suggestions are Welcome. Please Contact: 21 Lei Zhang, Ph.D. Project P.I. Associate Professor Director of the National Transportation Center Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Maryland Phone: 301-405-2881 E-mail: lei@umd.edulei@umd.edu Eirini Kastrouni, M.Sc. Ph.D. Candidate Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Maryland E-mail: kast@umd.edukast@umd.edu National Transportation Center @Maryland || www.ntc.umd.edu || www.tep.umd.eduwww.ntc.umd.eduwww.tep.umd.edu