Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published bySamson Lee Modified over 9 years ago
1
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR Annual Conference Commercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum San Francisco, CA November 8, 2013
2
GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no Fresh Recession (Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery)
3
U.S. Total Payroll Jobs (8 million lost … 7 million gained) In thousands
4
States with Fast Job Growth StateJob Growth Rate 1North Dakota3.2% 2Utah2.7% 3Idaho2.5% 4Texas2.4% 5Colorado2.3% 6Minnesota2.3% 7Georgia2.1% 8Washington2.1% 9Arizona2.0% 10New Jersey2.0%
5
Unemployment Rate
6
Employment Rate
7
Labor Force Participation Rate: Record Low for Men and Cyclical Low for Women (Adults 20 years old and up)
8
Well Shy of Long Run Trend ( 6 to 8 million more jobs needed) In millions
9
Consumer Spending Growth (2% growth; not 3% or 4%)
10
Business Spending Growth (3% growth; not sustained 5% to 10%)
11
Monetary and Fiscal Policies
12
Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy to 2015 ?) %
13
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from Quantitative Easing $ million
14
Consumer Price Inflation Less than 2% (% change from one year ago)
15
Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth (Above 2% and On the Way to 3%)
16
Household Net Worth
17
Federal Government Spending (Stimulus … Flat … Decline)
18
Shrinking Budget Deficit (in $billion)
19
Federal Government Annual Spending/Revenue $ trillion
20
Federal Debt Held By Public (Cumulative Accumulation as % of GDP)
21
Germany Too High Trade Surplus No Stimulus Budget Surplus in 2013 (though still has high debt from prior deficits) Blame Germany for holding back the World Economy? Or Emulate Germany’s Economic Reforms?
22
International Sovereign Borrowing Cost Country10-year Government Borrowing Cost Japan0.6% Switzerland1.1% Germany1.7% France2.3% Canada2.4% U.S.2.5% Britain2.6% China4.0% Spain4.1% Italy4.2% Russia7.5% India8.6% Greece8.7% Brazil11.6%
23
Consumer Confidence Now and About Future
24
Productivity and Income Doubling Productivity GrowthYears for Income to DoubleExamples 1%72 yearsU.S. today? 2%36 years1970 to 2007 (pre-financial market crash) 3%24 yearsU.S. post-war to 1970 5%14 yearsAsian Tigers
25
GDP Forecast
26
Commercial Market Activity
27
Transactions Up 27% YoY – 2013 YTD Source: Real Capital Analytics
28
CRE Prices Advance – CBD Off & Apt Lead Source: Real Capital Analytics
29
Spreads Remain Elevated Source: Real Capital Analytics
30
REALTOR® Markets Deal Size Source: NAR
31
REALTOR® CRE Markets Rebound
32
Prices Accelerate in REALTOR® Markets
33
Small Banks Important to REALTORS®
34
SIOR Markets in Recovery
35
CCIM Quarterly Market Trends
36
Apartment Fundamentals
37
Apartment Rents
38
Apartment Vacancy Comparison
39
Apartment Investments Source: Real Capital Analytics
40
Renter Households In thousands
41
Homeowner Households has not Grown since 2006 … but Primed to Grow In thousands
42
Household Formation Bursting Out (in millions)
43
Office Fundamentals
44
Office Rents
45
Office Vacancy Comparison
46
Office Investments Source: Real Capital Analytics
47
Jobs in Professional Business and Financial Services … at New Peak In millions
48
Retail Fundamentals
49
Retail Rents
50
Retail Vacancy Comparison
51
Retail Investments Source: Real Capital Analytics
52
Jobs in Retail Trade (Still Below Prior Peak)
53
Spending Effect from Higher Home Prices 18% cumulative gains over 2 years Median Existing Home Price
54
Industrial Fundamentals
55
Industrial Rents
56
Industrial Vacancy Comparison
57
Industrial Investments Source: Real Capital Analytics
58
Jobs in Wholesale Trade (Still Below Prior Peak) In millions
59
U.S. International Trade Long-Term Growth
60
U.S. International Trade But No Growth in Recent Years
61
International Dimension
62
International CRE Investment in U.S. Source: Real Capital Analytics
63
Volume of International Transactions (April 2012 to March 2013)
64
REALTORS® Working With International Clients In Past 12 Months, 27 Percent of REALTORS® Have Worked with an International Client. – Clients Residing in Another Country: 51 Percent. – Clients Residing in this Country: 49 Percent. – A Niche Market on Buyer Side: Facility with languages and cultures very helpful. – On Sellers Side—Understanding of foreign cultures helpful.
65
Percent of Total U.S. International Sales by Country Top Countries—2013 Report *China includes PROC, Hong Kong, Taiwan
66
Top State Destinations—2013 Report
67
Majority of International Buyers Pay All Cash
68
Impact of the Value of the Dollar on Foreign Purchases
69
U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan (Yuan per $)
70
U.S. Dollar vs. Euro ($ per Euro)
71
Broad U.S. Dollar Strength/Weakness (Broad Trade Weighted)
72
REALTORS® Working With International Clients
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.