1. Updating the IOOS-NCEP- MARACOOS Interaction: The Partnership is Working! “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director 1 MARACOOS Meeting Baltimore, MD November 1, 2012

2. Outline “The Weatherman is not a Moron” NCEP Enables Bay Forecasts and Regional Coastal and Great Lakes Models Extending Prediction Models into “Non- Traditional” Areas Ongoing Discussions with Regional Associations Summary 2

3. 3 THE WEATHERMAN IS NOT A MORON IN THE HOCUS POCUS REALM OF PREDICTING THE FUTURE, WEATHER FORECASTING STANDS OUT AS AN AREA OF GENUINE, MEASURABLE PROGRESS. YOUR OWN EXPERIENCE MAY DIFFER. BY NATE SILVER September 9, 2012

4. 4 From the inside, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction looked like a cross between a submarine command center and a Goldman Sachs trading floor. Quoted from “The Weatherman is not a Moron” New York Times Magazine, September 9, 2012

5. 5 Weather prediction has progressed when most other predictions have failed Progress can be “measured”/verified in a quantitative way Prediction capabilities include uncertainty and have already been integrated into key decision support Actually goes as far as stating the NWS does the best job in conveying uncertainty in forecast products “The Weatherman is not a Moron” - Nate Silver, New York Times

6. 6 Hurricane Sandy

7. Day 7 Forecast Valid 8AM Monday Oct 29 Verifying Analysis Valid 8AM Monday Oct 29

8. Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Saturday, October 27, 2012

9. Official 5 – day Track Forecast from 8AM, Sunday, October 28, 2012

11. Wave Watch III model output valid 8PM Mon Oct 30 36 hour Wave height forecast (ft)

12. 72 hour Precipitation Forecast: 8AM Saturday Oct 27 – 8AM Tuesday Oct 30 Issued 6AM, Sat Oct 27, 2012

13. Probability of 48 hour snowfall > 12 inches Issued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012 Valid 8PM, Sunday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30 3 day Snow Accumulation (inches) Issued 2PM, Saturday, Oct 27, 2012 Valid 8PM Saturday Oct 28 – 8PM Tuesday Oct 30

14. Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) Total Water Level (feet) 30 hour forecast Initial time: 2PM Sunday, Oct 28 Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) Storm Surge relative to MSL(feet) 30 hour forecast Initial time: 2PM Sunday, Oct 28

17. ESTOFS Surge Guidance from 2AM Sunday Oct 28

18. 18 NCEP Enables Bay Forecasts and Regional Coastal and Great Lakes Models

19. NOAA Response to 2004 SAB NCEP Ocean Modeling Review Panel Major Recommendation #1: Integrate Ocean Modeling –NCEP will provide a comprehensive operational national backbone ocean and coastal ocean modeling capability across time- scales of a few hours to a year or more. –NOAA will integrate appropriate ocean, coastal ocean, estuarine and Great Lakes models, including NOS Regional operational models, into NCEP’s operational modeling system. 19

20. 20

21. 21 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM NMMB GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMMB North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Refresh for Aviation Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s Model Production Suite GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 21 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% ~2B Obs/Day NOS – OFS Great Lakes Northern Gulf of Mex Columbia R. Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware Space Weather ENLIL Regional DA Sea Nettle Forecast

22. First global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at NOAA/NCEP. Based on a 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) – Community model developed under National Oceanographic Partnership Program (NOPP) –Led by Navy/FSU Attributes –1/12 th degree horizontal resolution –Run once per day out six days –32 vertical hybrid layers Earth System Modeling Framework compatible Provide boundary conditions for coastal models Implemented operationally on October 25, 2011 Output: global sea surface height and three dimensional fields of temperature, salinity, density and velocity 22 Global Real-Time Ocean Forecast System

23. 23 Bay Models Running on NCEP’s Operational Computers Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System Columbia River Estuary Operational Forecast System Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System Northern Gulf of Mexico Operational Forecast System Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System

24. Advances – over previous versions running in NOS Increased resolution, reliability, decreased run time Improved real time and backup input fields (winds, etc) Coastal ocean backbone to support navigation, hazards response, ecological User comments: value usefulness, accessibility, reliability Outputs used by USGS, USCG, NOS/OR&R, Applied Science Associates, etc. in real-time setting. Web products used daily by coastal managers, maritime, navigation and emergency response communities. Reliability and timely delivery of products are most important. Graphics on CO-OPS Web Site:CO-OPS Web Site Water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations Time series plots of selected locations, contour and vector map plots, animations Model data sets on NOAA’s WOC and CO-OPS THREDDS, NOMADSNOAA’s WOCCO-OPS THREDDS Station/point netCDF files (6-minute output): Time series at selected stations Gridded model output netCDF files (hourly output) NOS Coastal Operational Forecast System Products:

25. Runs on NCEP computers to produce four times daily forecast guidance of total water level, current 25 Great Lakes Operational Forecast System speed and direction, and water temperature for each of the Great Lakes.

26. 26 Coupled Models: Atmosphere – Ocean – Land  provide opportunities for ecosystem prediction: beach/water quality, health, ”critters” Extending Prediction Models into “Non-Traditional” Areas Coupling models and linking products Regional Earth System Modeling

27. An Example of Operational Ecological Forecasting (Sea Nettles) Global Ocean Forecasts Ecological Forecasts –Forecasting Sea Nettles Bay Forecasts 27

28. Ecosystem Prediction 28 Predicted chance of encountering sea nettles, C. quinquecirrha, on October 4, 2012 Automatically generate daily nowcasts and 2-day forecasts of Sea Nettles, Chrysaora quinquecirrha, in Chesapeake Bay Generated since 2002 in a research mode Important for water management and recreational purposes Put into operational production suite April, 2012 * Research initiated, developed and results demonstrated by NOS and NESDIS with regional partners and customers Predicting Sea Nettles in Chesapeake Bay

29. 29 Surface Water Salinity Forecast Guidance Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System Surface Water Temperature Forecast Guidance Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System

30. 30 Gulf of Mexico Harmful Algal Bloom Bulletin Region: Southwest Florida Monday, 27 August 2012 NOAA Ocean Service NOAA Satellite and Information Service NOAA National Weather Service Satellite chlorophyll image with possible HAB areas shown by red polygon(s). NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Relies on satellite imagery, field observations, models, public health reports and buoy data to assess and predict bloom conditions, location and movements.

31. 31 Ongoing Discussions with Regional Associations

32. NCEP interactions with IOOS, RAs, MARACOOS Modeling and Assimilation Steering Committee (Tolman, Ji): ~2005-2008 HFR steering committee (Ji-NCEP, S. Glen-MARACOOS): 2009- “Super Regional Testbed” (SURA): 2010-2012 Coastal Ocean Modeling Testbed: est. 2012 MARACOOS-NCEP meeting at NCEP: June 2012 Tony Siebers: member, MARACOOS Users Council and Inundation Working Group “Azafran” Discussions (Uccellini, Kuska) Meeting at Rutgers: Oct. 2012

33. 33 Rutgers Whiteboard

34. High Priority Outcomes driving the process –Water/Beach quality? –Health? –Food security? Public/private sector Operational Concept – Central model enabling local model? Connecting atmospheric and ocean/coastal models? –Model Access (NOMADS) –Data Access (gliders, HF radar) Computing capacity 34

35. 35 HYCOM Bay Models Delaware Chesapeake Tampa N. Gulf of Mex Columbia R. Local Coastal Models GFS NAM Work Station WRF NOS/NCEP Connecting Atmospheric and Ocean/Coastal Models 27 km wind grids 4 km wind grids

36. Summary Weather-Ocean interaction envisioned in the 2004 SAB recommendations is alive and well Lessons learned from weather community are applicable to emerging coastal services NOAA/NOS remains committed to enabling the rapid spin up of coastal and ecosystem forecasting and serving the needs of the entire community (“enable”, not control) 36