1. ADF: Impact of HIV/AIDS and Governance by Prof. Alan Whiteside Commissioner CHGA The Epidemic and its Consequences for Africa

2. Outline of Presentation Understanding HIV/AIDS –The Numbers –Timeframe –Impact Conclusions

3. HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, end 2003 20 – 39% 10 – 20% 5 – 10% 1 – 5% 0 – 1% No data available outside region 2003 Source: UNAIDS, 2002.

5. HIV prevalence rates among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in urban sites in Cameroon: 1989-2000 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000 Bamenda Limbe Yaounde Garoua % HIV-positive Source: National AIDS Programme, Cameroon (1989-2000). Data compiled by the US Census Bureau

6. Epidemic Curves, HIV 27Aug01-Report I:Epidem’gy& Lit.p.27 T 1 T 2 Time Numbers A 1 A 2 HIVprevalence A B

7. Epidemic Curves, HIV and AIDS 27Aug01-Report I:Epidem’gy& Lit.p.27 T 1 T 2 Time Numbers A 1 A 2 HIVprevalence AIDS-cumulative B 1 A B

8. Epidemic Curves, HIV, AIDS & Impact 27Aug01 -Report I:Epidem’gy & Lit. p.27 T 1 T 2 Time Numbers A 1 A 2 HIV prevalence B 1 A B AIDS - cumulative Impact

9. The Three Challenges Prevention Appropriate care and treatment Impact mitigation But remember this is a long wave epidemic

10. Outline of Presentation Understanding HIV/AIDS –The Numbers –Timeframe –Impact Conclusions

11. All orphans and orphans due to AIDS by HIV prevalence, Uganda, by year 198519901995200020052010 Year 0 0.5 million 1 million 1.5 million 2 million Total Number 0 6% 12% HIV Prevalence Total Orphans AIDS Orphans HIV Prevalence

12. Estimated and projected deaths 15-34, with and without AIDS in South Africa: 1980-2025 Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2002) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000 Deaths (thousands) 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Without AIDSWith AIDS

13. Outline of Presentation Understanding HIV/AIDS –The Numbers –Timeframe –Impact Conclusions

14. Estimated increase in adult death rates relative to the 1985 rates

15. Mortality in Swaziland 17

16. Declining life expectancy Changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950-2005 Source: UNAIDS, 2002. Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic

17. Percent of children under age 15 that are orphans by year, region and cause, 1990-2010 Percentage of children under 15 years who are orphaned by year, region and cause Sub-Saharan Africa AsiaLatin America Source: Children on the Brink, 2002

18. By 2010 orphans will account for 15-25% of all children in 12 countries in SAA Source: UNICEF

19. Outline of Presentation Understanding HIV/AIDS –The Numbers –Timeframe –Impact Conclusions: AIDS and Governance

20. By-elections in Zambia (number) source IDASA

21. Non-participation by young women Non-registration HIV prevalence _ _ + + Pearson’s r =.7 Level of analysis: the nine provinces

22. Loss of Friends or Relatives to AIDS (Afrobarometer)

23. ADF: Impact of HIV/AIDS and Governance by Prof. Alan Whiteside Commissioner CHGA The Epidemic and its Consequences for Africa