1. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 Broken Voices on Broken Phones – What to do about cell phone only households Nick Moon Managing Director, GfK NOP Social Research

2. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 2 The One-Minute (UK-specific) Summary  You can do election polls using RDD samples of cell-phone numbers BUT  You can’t get a nationally representative sample  You can’t get the right result by standard weighting  It costs twice as much

3. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 3 The UK Situation

4. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 4 Mobiles By Age

5. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 5 Mobiles By Social Class

6. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 Anti-Obama bias of landline only polls 6 Can you hear me now? Obama's missing 2 percent By failing to survey cellphone-only voters, pollsters could be undercounting Barack Obama's support by millions of voters. Pew: Cellular Polling Bias Hurts Obama Why lack of cellphone polling is creating bias in US Presidential polls Pollsters Not Capturing Key Obama Demo: Cell Phone Only Voters

7. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 Anti-Obama bias of landline only polls? 7 Source: fivethirtyeight.com, Sunday before polling day

8. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 Final election polls 8

9. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 9 The 2005 Experiment  General Election offered an opportunity  Our polling was all being done by RDD  Mobiles only experiment run at same time  RDD sample with same quotas as main survey  Impossible to keep to quotas  as we expected

10. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 10 The NOP Prediction Poll NOPActual result 36 33 23

11. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 11 Unweighted By Gender TargetTraditionalMobile Male48.4 58.7 Female51.651.541.3

12. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 12 Unweighted By Age TargetTraditionalMobile 18-3426.5 50.5 35-5437.636.738.1 55+35.936.611.4

13. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 13 With standard political poll weighting TraditionalMobile Conservative3324 Labour3537 Liberal Democrat2328 Other911

14. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 14 Traditional and Mobile by Age Average difference between traditional and mobile 18-344.0 35-545.3 55+11.0

15. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 15 Likelihood of Voting TraditionalMobile 0 or 11011 2 to 579 6 to 8811 9 or 107468 Mean score8.48.0

16. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 16 Costs and Outcomes  Is it more expensive?  Is it harder to get cooperation?  Do you get different dispositions?  Debrief of team leaders revealed no particular problems  Other than filling quotas  Did not get more refusals on the mobile sample

17. GfK NOPSocial ResearchEurobarometer Conference Paris 21 November 2008 17 Interviewing Hours Total Traditional242 Mobiles420