1. © PATHENA 2009 | All rights reserved Subsidies for a better Labour Market António Murta

2. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 2 Agenda 1- Introduction 2- The forces that shape the Labour Market: Gratton Model 3- The impact of technology 4- Demographics and longevity 5- What are the shifts that Gratton forecasts? 6- My own perspective 7- A look into the future

3. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 3 Introduction AS-IS Labour Market TO-BE Labour Market Regulatory pressures Individual awareness The forces that shape it Challenge: what can we do to make the labour market a better one?

4. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 4 The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model Social change Technology Globalization Labour Market Energy resources Demographics and longevity 5 1 2 4 3

5. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 5 The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model Social change Technology Globalization Labour Market Energy resources Demographics and longevity 5 1 2 4 3 Cloud services/ PAAS Convergence (Digital) High added-value automation Internet of Things: quantum digital leap

6. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 6 The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model Social change Technology Globalization Labour Market Energy resources Demographics and longevity 5 1 2 4 3 24x7 $: old-rich → new-rich Education powerhouses: China + India Urbanization ↑

7. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 7 The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model Social change Technology Globalization Labour Market Energy resources Demographics and longevity 5 1 2 4 3 Words population growth ↑↑ (!) Demographic paterns of the old-rich ↓ Longevity ↑ Wellfare state = non-sustainable in the present form

8. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 8 The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model Social change Technology Globalization Labour Market Energy resources Demographics and longevity 5 1 2 4 3 Energy prices ↑ Sustainability emerging as a key trend Need for a massive transformation of the energy value chain

9. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 9 The forces that shape the labour market: Gratton model Social change Technology Globalization Labour Market Energy resources Demographics and longevity 5 1 2 4 3 Role of women as leaders Lack of trust on institutions (including democracy) Family (reinvented) Growing social awareness

10. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 10 The impact of technology Man – machine divide line and the effect of innovation (over time) on it The effect of innovation over time Cost of $ + - - + Man – machine divide line Man Territory Machine Territory Cost of human labour Kurtzweil: singularity = 2045?

11. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 11 The impact of technology Cloud services: creation of a truly global labour market P1 P2 input output input output Location does not matter (customer, worker) Virtual value chains Quality = Y (costs, levels of service)

12. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 12 The impact of technology Unified Umbrella brand and digital interface VOICEDATAINTERNETTVMOVIES MUSICMAGAZINESBOOKSTICKETS HOME CONTROL ENERGYSECURITYWELL BEING HEALTH CARE EXPENSES Digital convergence: 3-Play 20-Play (from Telco to Digital Distribution)

13. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 13 Demographics and longevity 7 Billion people 9 Billion people 20102050 Simply the biggest threat that we all face !!! Earth

14. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 14 Demographics and longevity The European wellfare state is not sustainable anymore…. No growth or limited growth Demographics working against it Implications on immigration policy Danger of generational clashes (David Willets =2030?)

15. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 15 What are the shifts that Gratton forecasts? SHIFT 1 SHIFT 2 SHIFT 3 From generalist to expert (IP Focus) From isolated competition to active networker From unbalanced consumer to passionate producer

16. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 16 My own perspective Flexibility (to gain time) Personal awareness Change Management on the Labour Market Global regulation 1 2 4 3 Politics How can we diminuish the risks of isolation/ Social exlusion? Expanded entrepreneurship

17. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 17 My own perspective Expanded entrepreneurship Flexibility (to gain time) Personal awareness Change Managment on the Labour Market Global regulation 1 2 4 3 Politics Gerhard Schroder Protection of employment Attitude change: entrepreneurs + workers You can only do it if you can fund it (previous savings)!

18. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 18 My own perspective Expanded entrepreneurship Flexibility (to gain time) Personal awareness Change Managment on the Labour Market Global regulation 1 2 4 3 Politics Continuous education To save for the end of the life (back to history) Work for a longer total time Opportunities for the seniors

19. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 19 My own perspective Expanded entrepreneurship Flexibility (to gain time) Personal awareness Change Managment on the Labour Market Global regulation 1 2 4 3 Politics Global adoption of a level of wellfare state (OMT/OMC) Upper limits (Max) on salary bandwidth If we do not regulate it.… we will get proteccionism (by zones)

20. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 20 My own perspective Expanded entrepreneurship Flexibility (to gain time) Personal awareness Change Managment on the Labour Market Global regulation 1 2 4 3 Politics Entrepreneur ≠ worker Levels of entrepreneurship SMES, lots of them Eco-systems with large numbers of affiliated SMES

21. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 21 A look into the future Alibaba Public etendering Medical Media- Center? Robotics Neurosurgeon Product Metadata Repositories …

22. CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE 22 Bibliography 1. “The Shift”, Lynda Gratton, 2011, Hapercollins 2.“The new division of labour”, F. Levy and R. Murnane, 2004, Princeton Press 3.“The singularity is near”, R. Kurtzweil, 2009 4.“The future of work”, T. Malone, 2004, Harvard Press 5.“Employment: a fix that functions”, R. Atkin, M. Steinglass, 04/08/2011, Financial Times 6.“The age of specialization”, T. Malone, R. Laubacher, T. Johns, July-August 2011, Harvard Business Review 7.“Special Report: The future of jobs”, The Economist, September 10 th 2011

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