1. Global Scenarios to be used for the GECAFS scenario exercise
Monika Zurek
FAO, Rome
GECAFS 1st Caribbean Scenarios Meeting, 1Sep 05

2. Drivers, Activities and Outcomes relevant to Developing Scenarios
for analysing interactions between GEC and Food Systems
Societal Interests
that relate to Food Systems
Food Security
Environmental Security
Other Securities
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Demography
Economics
Socio-political context
Cultural context
Science & Technology I I
Food System OUTCOMES
contributing to:
Interactions
among
DRIVERS
Naturally-
induced drivers
e.g.
Volcanoes
Solar cycles
Other societal interests
Food Security
Environmental Security / Natural Capital: I
GEC
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Land cover & soils
Atmospheric composition
Climate variability & means
Water availability & quality Nutrient availability & cycling
Biodiversity
Sea currents & salinity
Sea level
Food System ACTIVITIES D
Arrow D = Direct feedback to GEC from Food System Activities
Arrows I = Indirect feedback to GEC from Food Systems Outcomes

3. Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to Food System ACTIVITIES
Other societal goals
Income
Employment
Wealth
Social & political capital
Human capital
Infrastructure
Peace
Insurance
Food Security
Environmental Security / Natural Capital
Ecosystems stocks, flows
Ecosystem services
Access to NC assured
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD
ACCESS
Nutritional Value
Social Value
Food Safety
Affordability
Allocation
Preference
FOOD
AVAILABILITY
Production
Distribution
Exchange
Food System ACTIVITIES
Producing food: resource inputs, farmers, raw materials
Processing & packaging food
Distribution & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade
Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, consumption

4. Possibilities for linking scenarios across scales
Take full stories of global scenarios and “translate” into regional stories.
Develop regional scenarios based on rationale for choosing global scenarios, the assumptions global scenarios make and the outcomes of global scenarios, ensuring that outcomes of regional scenarios do not conflict with outcomes of global scenarios.

5. Global Scenarios exercises which include GEC variables
IPCC (climate)
World Water Vision (water)
Global Scenarios Group
OECD Environmental Outlook
(FAO 2015/2030 (projection))
GEO-3
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)

6. Global scenarios to be used for GECAFS
IPCC GEO3 MA
A1 Policy first Global Orchestration
A2 Market first Order from Strength
B1 Security first TechnoGarden
B2 Sustainability first Adapting Mosaic

7. Indirect Drivers of Change Direct Drivers of Change
MA Framework
Human Well-being and
Poverty Reduction
Basic material for a good life
Health
Good Social Relations
Security
Freedom of choice and action
Indirect Drivers of Change
Demographic
Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework)
Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework)
Science and Technology
Cultural and Religious
Direct
Drivers
Indirect
Ecosystem
Services
Human
Well-being
Direct Drivers of Change
Changes in land use
Species introduction or removal
Technology adaptation and use
External inputs (e.g., irrigation)
Resource consumption
Climate change
Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)

8. Consequences of cross-scale feedbacks
Continual and reciprocal feedbacks between humans and
other components of ecosystems
people
nature
Ecosystems develop in different ways in the different
scenarios, because of the different events and decisions
in society (including social response to ecosystem change).
* These differences occur even though the basic
ecological assumptions are the same in all scenarios.

10. Global Orchestration
Order from Strength
Adapting Mosaic
Techno
Garden
Market First
Industrial Nations
Developing Nations
Demo-graphics
2050 population: 8.1 billion
2050 population: 9.6 billion
2050 population:
9.5 billion
2050 population: 8.8 billion
low
Average income growth
high
medium
similar to Order from Strength but with increasing growth rates toward 2050
lower than Global Orchestration, but catching up toward 2050
Income distribution
becomes more equal
similar to today
similar to today, then becomes more equal
Overall trend in technology advances
medium-low
medium in general; high for environmental technology
International cooperation
strong
weak—international competition
weak—focus on local environment
Attitude toward environ-mental policies
reactive
proactive—learning
proactive

14. Dominant Approach for Sustainability
Global Orchestration (global & reactive) focus on macro-scale policy reform together with a socially conscious globalization, reactive approach to env. management
Dominant Approach for Sustainability
Economic Approach
Social Policy Foci
Create demand for environmental protection via economic growth and social improvements; public goods
Redefinition of the public and private sector roles; improving market performance; focus on global public good
Increase global equity; public health; global education

15. Dominant Approach for Sustainability
Order from Strength (regionalized & reactive) retreat from global institutions results in a fragmented world, focus on national security and protectionism, reactive approach to env. mgmt
Dominant Approach for Sustainability
Economic Approach
Social Policy Foci
Reactive problem-solving by individual nations; sectoral approaches, creation of parks and protected reserves
Regional trade blocs, mercantilism, self-sufficiency
Security and protection

16. Dominant Approach for Sustainability
Adapting Mosaic (Regionalized & pro-active) retreat from global institutions, focus on strengthened local institutions and local learning, proactive approach to env. mgmt
Dominant Approach for Sustainability
Economic Approach
Social Policy Foci
Learning via management and monitoring, shared management responsibility, adjustment of governance structures to resource users, common-property institutions
Focus on local development; trade rules allow local flexibility/interpretation; local non-market rights
Local communities linked to global communities; local equity

17. Dominant Approach for Sustainability
Techno Garden (global & pro-active) emphasis on development of technologies to substitute for ecosystem services, globalized world, proactive approach to manage ES via technology
Dominant Approach for Sustainability
Economic Approach
Social Policy Foci
Green technology, eco-efficiency, tradeable ecological property rights
Global reduction of tariff boundaries, fairly free movement of goods, capital and people, global markets in ecological property
Improving individual and community technical expertise; policies follow opportunities; competition

18. Market first Scenario (GEO-3)
wealth of nations and the optimal play of market forces dominate social and political agendas
globalization and liberalization to enhance corporate wealth, create new enterprises and livelihoods, and so help people and communities to afford to insure against — or pay to fix — social and environmental problems
powers of state officials, planners and lawmakers to regulate society, economy and the environment continue to be overwhelmed by expanding demands

19. Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios

21. Land use changes in the MA scenarios

22. The MA scenarios and food production (1)
In all scenarios food production increases, but food security is not achieved
Global Orchestration:
Rapid (highest) growth in food demand (-> econ dev, urbanization), part. for meat
Growth in demand about met by increases in production via yield improvements and increased trade
Per capita availability highest of all scenarios

23. The MA scenarios and food production (2)
Order from Strength
Growth in demand mainly due to population increase
Demand only partly met by increased production via area expansion, low trade
Cost of food increases
Number of malnourished children highest of all scenarios
Adapting Mosaic
Growth in demand due to population growth
Increase in production via area expansion, but more trade opportunity
Food more produced locally
Better the OS but slow increases in calorie availability

24. The MA and GEO-3 scenarios and food production (3)
TechnoGarden
Increase in demand due to population growth and economic improvements
Demand met via yield improvements and increased trade
Calorie availability similar to GO, but still malnourished children
GEO-3 Market First
Decrease of % of hungry people, but total numbers stay the same (pop. growth)

26. Cereal Production in 2050 in the MA Scenarios

27. Ecosystem services outcome across the scenarios

28. Outcomes of the scenarios analysis (1)
Focus on increasing the flow of provisioning services often leads to reductions in supporting, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services. This may reduce the future capacity of ecosystems to provide services.
Monitoring ALL ecosystem services will increase society’s capacity to avert large disturbances of ecosystem services, or adapt to them rapidly when they occur.

29. Human Well-being across the scenarios

30. Outcomes of the scenario analysis (1)
The future will represent a mix of approaches and consequences described in the scenarios, as well as events and innovations that have not yet been imagined.
All scenarios show different trade-offs between possible management strategies currently discussed in various policy fora.

31. Outcomes of the scenario analysis (2)
The MA scenarios examine the need to develop and expand mechanisms of ecosystem management that:
avoid large ecosystem changes (by reducing stress on ecosystems),
allow for the possibility of large ecosystem changes (by choosing reversible actions, experimenting cautiously, and monitoring appropriate ecological indicators),
increase capacity of societies to adapt to large ecosystem changes (diversifying the portfolio of ecosystem services and developing flexible governance systems that adapt effectively to ecosystem change), and
acknowledge the implicit trade-offs that arise as part of available management strategies among ecosystem services and between ecosystem services and human well-being impacts.