1. OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE UP TO 2030
NEEDS Research Stream 1c “New Externalities associated to the Extraction and Transport of Energy”
OIL AND GAS SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS FOR EUROPE UP TO 2030
Manfred Hafner
Observatoire Méditerranéen de l’Energie
NEEDS Forum 2
Energy Supply Security – Present and Future Issues
Krakow, 5-6 July 2007

2. Supply/Demand scenarios Flows & Routes Critical passages
Research Stream 1c “New Externalities associated to the extraction and transport energy”
Supply/Demand scenarios
Flows & Routes
Critical passages
New technology & regulation
Burdens
Impacts
Risk Analysis
Economic valuation
OIL
NATURAL GAS
ELECTRICITY
HYDROGEN

3. N NE S SE 2005e*: Gas Supply to EU-25 Gas Supplies to EU-15
Cons bcm
Imports 290 bcm
Gas Supplies to EU-15
78 bcm Norway
27%
126 bcm Russia
43%
Norway
3000
Russia
48100
U.K. 700
Netherlands
1800 SE
Turkmenistan
2860
Iran
23000
2,000 km S
7 bcm Gulf 2%
4,000 km
6,000 km
Qatar
14400
Algeria
4520
Libya
1310
Egypt
1660
Oman
800
Trinidad
330
SEMCs 68 bcm (23%)
56 bcm Algeria
6 bcm Libya
6 bcm Egypt
Other Africa
11 bcm Nigeria (4%)
Abu Dhabi
6000
Venezuela
4000
Nigeria
3510
* first 2005 estimates
Source: OME, May 2006

4. EU-25 Gas Demand (by sector)
=> Driven mainly by power generation
126
125
287
240
423
707
172
180
2.8%/y
1.2%/y
1.1%/y
*Baseline scenario ‘’European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004’’

5. Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030
Source: EC DG TREN

6. Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030
Industrial
sector
13%
Services 6%
Households
18%
District heat
& other
Primarily competing against oil and electricity for space heating.
Substitution effect not as strong as income effect
High energy prices more likely to induce energy efficiency improvements

7. Sources of incremental annual demand between 2000 and 2030
Power sector
57%
Competing against coal, nuclear & renewables
Substitution effect stronger than income effect
Largest source of gas demand growth is the most sensitive to higher energy prices!!

9. EU-25 Natural Gas Imports
* Strongly increasing gas import requirements * High uncertainty due to development in: demand domestic production
Source: European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004

10. MAIN GAS REGIONS FOR EUROPEAN SUPPLY
NORTH AFRICA :
Algeria, Libya, Egypt
NORTH SEA :
Norway
RUSSIA
THE CASPIAN AREA AND CENTRAL ASIA:
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
THE GULF :
Iran, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Saudi-Arabia, UAE, Yemen
WEST AFRICA :
Nigeria, Angola
SOUTH AMERICA :
Trinidad & Tobago, Venezuela

11. Future gas export potential for Europe
LIBYA
EGYPT
IRAN
TURKMENISTAN
ALGERIA
RUSSIA
196
166
139
100 95 94 81 57
110
115 5 12 25 38 23 28 20 35 7 44 68 88 13 11 21 45
W. AFRICA
NORWAY
QATAR/ UAE/ OMAN/ YEMEN
207
AZERB .
304
bcm
447
619
695
2005
2010
2020
2030
IRAQ 1 6
T&T + VENEZ.
RUSSIA and Central Asia

12. Algeria : Gas Export Projects
PORTUGAL
Algeria-Italy via
Sardinia Corsica
(Galsi)
8 to 16 bcm
ITALIY
SPAIN
Algeria-Italy
Enrico Mattei Gasline
(EMG, ex-Transmed)
25 to 31 bcm
Algeria-Spain
(Medgaz)
8 to 16 bcm
LNG Algeria
27 to 38 bcm
SICILY
ALGER
Skikda
Arzew
LNG (G.Touil)
5 bcm
BeniSaf
EMG
Pedro Duran Farell Gasline
(PDFG, ex-GME)
11.5 to bcm
PDFG
TUNISIA
Hassi R’Mel
MOROCCO - -
ALGERIA
Algeria Export Gas Capacities
R.Nouss
Hamra
Export gas infrastructure
2004
2010
2020
2030
EMG & Expansion (ex-Transmed) 25 27 31
PDFG & Expansion (ex-GME)
11.5 18 20
LNG Plants & Expansion
27.5 38 43
Medgaz Pipeline Project 8 16
Galsi Pipeline Project
TOTAL 64 91
119
125
Reg
Tegentour
TFT
Ohanet
In Amenas
Ahnet
In Salah
Gasline Projects
Existing Gaslines
Existing LNG Plant
LNG Plant Projects
Source: OME, May 2006
TSGP
Nigeria-Algeria to Europe

13. Libya Gas Export Capacities (bcm)
LIBYA : Gas Export Projects
ITALIY
PORTUGAL
SPAIN
EMG,
ex-Transmed
SICILE
Skikda
ALGER
Arzew
TUNISIA
Libya-Italy
(Greenstream)
ALGERIA
8 to bcm
Bouri
LNG Libya
1 to 9-14 bcm
TRIPOLI
MOROCCO
Hassi R’Mel
Libya-Tunisia
2 bcm
Marsat El Braga -
Libya Gas Export Capacities (bcm)
Bassin de Ghadames
Hatiba
Export gas infrastructure
2005
2010
2020
2030
LNG Plant & Expansion 1 4 9 14
Libya to Tunisia Gasline 2
Greenstream 8 16 24
TOTAL of the projects 27 40
Zelten
LIBYA
Wafa
Existing Gaslines
Gasline Projects
Existing LNG Plant
LNG Plant Projects
Source: OME, May 2006

14. Egypt : Gas Export Projects
Damietta
SEGAS (UFG)
2x6.9 bcm
Idku
ELNG (BG)
3x4.8 bcm
Trans Machrek Pipeline
3 to 10 bcm
Taba
Capacities of Egypt Gas Export Projects (bcm)
2004
2005
2010
2020
2030
SEGAS (Union Fenosa, ENI) at Damietta -
6.9
2x6.9
ELNG (BG/Petronas/GdF) at Idku
2x4.8
3x4.8
LNG (Shell)
5.2*
Trans Machrek pipeline
1.1 3
5 (10*) 10
TOTAL of projects 18 26 33 38
Gasline Projects
Existing Gaslines
Existing LNG Plant
LNG Plant Projects
Source : Petroleum Economist & OME, May 2006
* these figures refer to possible projects but which are not counted in the total

15. SCANDINAVIAN GAS NETWORK : EXISTING & PLANNED GAS ROUTES
TALLINN
STOCKHOLM
COPENHAGEN
SWEDEN
NORWAY
FINLAND
Shtokmanovskoye
Haltenbanken
ATS
Troll
Yamal - Europe
Franpipe
Europipe II
Europipe I
DENMARK
Existing Gas Pipeline
Gas Pipeline Project
Norpipe
Eastern axe 45 bcm
Norpipe bcm
Europipe I 13 bcm
Europipe II 21 bcm
Western axe 28 bcm
Zeepipe bcm
Franpipe 15 bcm
Frigg
Frigg/Vesterled
13 bcm
Asgard fields/ ATS
21 bcm
Snohvit
Nord Stream
27-55 bcm
Zeepipe
Ormen Lange
Ormen Lange/Britpipe
22 bcm
Easington
Bacton
NEGP
HELSINKI
BBL
20 bcm
Shtockman LNG
23 bcm
Snohvit LNG
6-11 bcm
Murchison
Balgzand
Isle of Grain
5/10
Norwegian Gas Export Capacity (bcm/yr)
Source: OME, May 2006

16. RUSSIA : EXISTING & PLANNED GAS ROUTES
YAMAL
WARSAW
RUSSIA
KAZAKHSTAN
Bovanenko
BARENTS SEA
BALTIC SEA
Yamal - Europe
Yamal I- Europe
29 to 32 bcm
Yamal II - Europe
+32 bcm
HELSINKI
TALLINN
St Petersburg
TYUMEN
UKRAINE
MINSK
Urengoy
MOSCOW
Blue Stream bcm
Shtokmanovskoye
STOCKHOLM
Northern Route
Central Route
Souhern Route
Shtokmanovskoye Europe Baltic Pipeline
18-35 bcm
Kondratki
Izmail
Uzhgorod
New Transit Line through Ukraine bcm
Shtockman LNG
23 bcm
Nord Stream
Gas Pipeline
27-55 bcm
Aleksandrov-Gay
Novopskov
Yamal LNG
25 bcm
CAPACITY OF RUSSIAN GAS EXPORT INFRASTRUCTURE to EUROPE
* This capacity is less likely and has not been included in the Total.
Source: OME, May 2006

17. Russia: important gas import potential from Central Asia

18. AZERBAIJAN
OME, Sept 2005

19. South Eastern European gas pipeline projects
Nabucco
South Stream
Blue Stream
Nabucco
TGI

20. Gulf: LNG Export Projects of which to Atlantic Basin
2005 by
Countries
Existing LNG
LNG Projects
Total cap.
of which to Atlantic Basin
QATAR 34 69
103 54
UAE 8 4 12 3
OMAN 10 5 15
IRAN 27 20
TOTAL 51
112
156 81
ISTANBUL
bcm/yr
Marmara
Izmir
Ankara
Kayseri
TURKEY
Ceyhan
Aleppo
DAMASCUS
Homs
BAGHDAD
Alexandria
Port Said
Amman
Cap. (Mt/y)
Iran LNG (BP/Reliance India) 9
Cap. (Mt/y)
Basra
Pars LNG (Total/Petronas) 10
Qatargas I (tr.1, 2&3)
KUWAIT
9.6
NIOC LNG (BG/ENI) 9
Persian LNG (Shell/Repsol)
Qatargas II Tr4&5 (ExxonM to UK)
15.6
Assaluyeh
Qatargas III Tr7(Conocco to US)
7.5
SAUDI ARABIA
North Field
Qatargas IV Tr8(Conocco to US)
7.8
Rasgas I (tr.1&2)
6.6
BAHRAIN
Rasgas II (tr. 3 &4)
9.4
Dubai
QATAR
Dolphin Project
Das Island
ABU DHABI
Yanbu
Rasgas II (new tr. 5)
4.7
RIYADH
Sohar
Rasgas II Tr6-7(ExxonM to US)
15.6
UAE
MUSCAT
OMAN
Sur
Source: OME, May 2006
Cap. (Mt/y)
Das Island (1, 2 &3)
5.7
Das Island (Tr.4)
3.3
Cap. (Mt/y)
Oman LNG (Tr.1& 2)
7.0
Oman LNG (Tr.3)
3.3

21. GAS CORRIDORS TO EUROPE

22. N NE S SE Oil Supplies to EU25 2005 Consumption 670 Mt
Gross Imports 627 Mt
99 Mt Norway
16%
222 Mt Russia
36% SE
137 Mt Gulf
22% S
17 Mt Amer. 4%
SEMCs 107 Mt (18%)
29 Mt Algeria
65 Mt Libya
3 Mt Egypt
10 Mt Syria
Other Africa
44 Mt (7%)
Source: OME, 2006

23. EU-25 Oil Imports
Source: European energy scenarios on key drivers, DG-TREN, Sept 2004

24. EU Oil Import scenario (in Mb/d)
Source:OME

25. Imports to Europe
Seaborne trade to increase
from 85% to 89%

26. Africa

27. Middle East
Qatar
Kuwait

28. Caspian

29. NORWAY

30. RUSSIA

31. EU crude oil imports by transport mode

32. Future evolution of EU crude oil imports by transport mode

33. EU Crude Oil Imports Flows – Summary 2004 Base Case (Mt)

34. Major EU Crude Oil Import Routes, 2030 (Mt), REF CASE
Atlantic Med.
Export
Import
Pipeline 5 8 12 84
0.2 61 3 3 74 9 65 82 30 23 A 33
Caspian 65 21 35 23 65 M 54 14 25 1
L. America 9 13
0.2 75
Gulf 56 55
105 16
Other Africa 23

35. EU Oil Imports (2004)

37. European Oil maritime routes
Source: ITOPF

38. Hot spots: the Ras Tanura –Rotterdam route
Primorsk
Leningrad Oblast (Russia)
Population (2002):
Area: kmq
French Finistére
Bretagne (France)
Population (2004):
Area: kmq
Dover Strait
Nord-Pas-de-Calais (France)
Populaion (2004):
Area: kmq
South East England
Population (2004):
Area: kmq
Spanish Finistere
Galicia (Spain)
Population (2004):
Area: kmq
Tangier-Tétouan (Morocco)
Population(2005):
Area: kmq
Gibraltar Strait
Andalusia (Spain)
Population(2005):
Area: kmq
The Aegean Sea is located between the coasts of Greece and Turkey and the islands of Crete and Rhodes. Its covers an area of 210 square kilometers; its maximum depth is 3,543 meters, found to the east of Crete. More than two thousand islands of varying sizes, most of which belong to Greece, are scattered throughout the Aegean
We have decided to divide this area in two part. The northern, where there is the greater concentration of inhabitants, and the southern where the inhabitants are less
Ras Tanura
Eastern Province (Saudi Arabia)
Population (2004):
Area: kmq
Nabeul Governorate (Tunisia)
Population (2004):
Area: kmq
Sicily Strait
Sicily
Population (2004):
Area: kmq
Suez Canal
Egypt Regions around the Suez Canal
Population (2004):
Area: kmq

39. Hot spots: the Novorossisk – Augusta route
Kraj di Krasnodar (Russia)
Population (2004):
Area: kmq
Augusta
Sicily
Population (2004):
Area: kmq
Bosphorus
Istambul (Turkey)
Populaion (2005):
Area: kmq
Kocaeli
(Turkey)
Population (2005):
Area: kmq
Aegean sea
Northern Aegean
Population (2004):
Area: kmq
Southern Aegean
Population (2004):
Area: kmq
The Aegean Sea is located between the coasts of Greece and Turkey and the islands of Crete and Rhodes. Its covers an area of 210 square kilometers; its maximum depth is 3,543 meters, found to the east of Crete. More than two thousand islands of varying sizes, most of which belong to Greece, are scattered throughout the Aegean
We have decided to divide this area in two part. The northern, where there is the greater concentration of inhabitants, and the southern where the inhabitants are less
Crete
Population (2004):
Area: 8336 kmq

40. Research Stream 1c “New Externalities associated to the extractions and transport energy”
Results of externality values associated to the fuel chain up to the EU border ready by September 2007
Operational externalities (extraction and transport)
Accidental/probabilistic externalities (extraction and transport)
The NEEDS project does not specifically target “security of supply” issues, but rather “environmental externalities”

41. WP1. Methodological developments
SECURE project proposal FP7: Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications
WP1. Methodological developments
Definition of concepts and general methodology of the project
WP5. Models and tools by energy source
WP4. Quantitative global models
Long term energy scenarios based on policy lines
Adaptation of the POLES model to include risk assessment
Development of energy risks assessment model (ERA)
Quantitative analysis of policy recommendations
WP3. Long term policy lines
Qualitative analysis of energy policy options and scenarios for the EU
WP2. Value of energy security
Estimation of consumers’ risk aversion and willingness to pay for security
WP6. Results and policy recommendations
5.1. Oil
5.2. Natural gas
5.3. Coal
5.4. Nuclear
5.5. Renewable energy sources
5.6. Electricity
5.7. Impact of accidents and terrorist threats
- External supply
- Internal supply
- Geopolitical risks
- Technical risks
- Economic & regulatory risks
5.8. Demand dimension of energy security
WP7. Stakeholders consultations and dissemination