1. Workshop on the use of GAINS model for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol Focus on key measures to improve air quality in Europe and the role of EECCA and Balkan countries in that improvement 20-21 June 2011 IIASA, Laxenbrg

2. Methodology for emission calculations and estimating of mitigation potentials The GAINS model Janusz Cofala (IIASA), Stefan Åström (IVL)

3. Outline Background Method Some illustrative results

4. Background GAINS The GAINS model is an updated version of the RAINS model Originally, the RAINS model was developed to support the UNECE CLRTAP GAINS makes it possible to propose effect-oriented international policies to reduce transboundary air pollution These policies are cheaper than 'uniform cap' policies. The GAINS model is today also including greenhouse gas calculations The GAINS model provides support to the work with air pollution in the EU and CLRTAP, as well as EU efforts to reduce emissions of Greenhouse gases in the EU.

5. Background GAINS The model calculates cost efficiency from a 'techno- economical' perspective (macro-economic feedbacks are not included) The model does not put an economic value on health and environmental impacts from air pollution. Cost-benefit analysis can be done as a separate task by other research team (AEA Technology) The model exists in several versions: –The abatement cost minimizing offline version run by IIASA –The Greenhouse Gases Mitigation Efforts Calculator (for Annex I countries) –online scenario analysis tools for: Europé (within EMEP), East Asia (with China), South-Asia, Rest of the World Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Sweden, Russia (national implementations)

6. GAINS methodology – REMINDER!! A model provides a simplified version of reality which can be used to show complex interactions

7. GAINS methodology – REMINDER!! The scenario technique A scenario is the description of a possible, consistent future development of a system (e.g. the energy, transport and agricultural system) The purposes of scenarios are the presentation and quantification of different pathways of future development of technical systems and analysis of the consequences of these pathways (costs, environmental impacts) the analysis of changes in the system caused by changed exogenous parameters Friedrich, 2010

8. Multi-pollutant-multi-effect approach

9. Building blocks of GAINS Energy/agricultural projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Air pollution impacts, GWP of GHG emissions Costs PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI, IEA, nat. projections Simulation/ “Scenario analysis” mode, available online

10. The GAINS optimization mode Energy/agricultural projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Costs Environmental targets OPTIMIZATION PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI, IEA, national projections Air pollution impacts, GWP of GHG emissions

11. Models help to separate policy and technical issues Amann, 2009 Decision makersModels Decide about: Ambition level (environmental targets) Level of acceptable risk Willingness to pay Identify cost-effective and robust measures: Balance controls over different countries, sectors and pollutants Regional differences in Europe Side-effects of present policies Maximize synergism with other air quality problems Search for robust strategies

12. Aggregation of energy- related sources Fuel categories: Coal Oil Gas Biomass Renewables Nuclear Electricity Heat Different types and grades included Primary sectors: Power plants Other energy production and conversion Industry Domestic Transport Non-energy use Further divided into secondary sectors

13. Aggregation of transport sources Road transport –Cars, light-duty trucks –Heavy-duty trucks, buses –Motorcycles and mopeds (2-stroke, 4-stroke) Non-road mobile sources –Rail, Air, Inland waterways –National sea traffic and national fishing –Mobile machines – construction and industry, agriculture –Other (households, gardening, forestry, military) For each source vehicle numbers and fuel consumption assessed. For road transport – also vehicle-kilometers

14. Aggregation of process sources Production of raw materials: Steel Aluminum Other metals Cement Glass Oil and natural gas Oil refining Fertilizers… Storage and handling of bulk products: Coal Agricultural products Metal ores Fertilizers Other… Construction activities Waste treatment and disposal

15. Stationary sources: SO2: –Use of low sulfur fuels –In-furnace control –Flue gases desulphurization –Process emissions controls NOx: –Combustion modification –Catalytic and non-catalytic reduction NH3: –Dietary changes –Animal housing adaptation and air purification –Manure storage and application techniques –Urea substitution Options to control emissions of air pollutants: VOC: –Basic management techniques –Solvent substitution –End-of-pipe measures PM –Cyclones, ESP, other Filters –Cleaner industrial processes –Improved boilers and stoves –Good practices Mobile sources: EURO standards Non-road EURO equivalents

16. GAINS data base on emission control options Wagner, Klimont, 2009 SO 2 : 180 options NO x : 400 options PM:850 options (same as NOx for transport sector sources) NH 3 : 110 options VOC:500 options GHG:300 (ca), incl structural measures for CO 2, options for CH 4, N 2 O, F-gases

17. GAINS methodology - scenarios By using a data base containing information on: –Emission factors for unabated emissions –Dispersion of air pollution over Europe –Ecosystem sensitivity, Population distribution –Technologies and options for reducing emissions, specified with respect to: emission removal efficiency cost of implementation And by using scenario specific estimates (projections regarding: –Activities causing pollution –Implementation of emission reducing technologies

18. GAINS results - scenarios The GAINS model can calculate the following results: –Emissions in a country –The impact on the environment and human health caused by the emissions –The costs for reducing emissions in countries With respect to that: –Some technologies used to reduce pollutants might increase emissions of other pollutants –Emissions in some countries have a larger impact on human health and the environment than other countries’ emissions

19. GAINS methodology – Calculating emissions i,j,k,mCountry, sector, fuel, abatement technology EiEi Emissions in country i AActivity in a given sector Ef“Raw gas” emission factor eff m Reduction efficiency of the abatement option m XImplementation rate of the considered abatement measure Klimont, 2009

20. Cost calculations in GAINS All costs in constant Euro 2005 Net of taxes Annual costs method Costs based on international investment and operating experience For developing countries – local components in investment costs included Three levels of discount rate –4% (social) –10% (business) –20% (private)

21. Cost components Common (the same for all countries) - unit investment costs, - fixed O+M costs, -extra demand for labor, energy, and materials Country-specific - size of installation, - plant factors, - prices for labor, electricity, fuel and other materials, - cost of waste disposal

22. Calculating abatement costs Cofala, 2009 Cost components: common (the same for all countries) - annualized unit investment costs, I ann - fixed O+M costs, OM fix - extra demand for labor, energy, and materials, OM var country-specific, OM var - size of installation, - plant factors, - prices for labor, electricity, fuel and other materials, - cost of waste disposal C = I ann + OM fix + OM var

23. Calculating dispersion of pollutants (Source-receptor relationships for PM2.5 - from the EMEP Eulerian model) PM2.5 j Annual mean concentration of PM2.5 at receptor point j ISet of emission sources (countries) JSet of receptors (grid cells) p i Primary emissions of PM2.5 in country i s i SO 2 emissions in country i n i NO x emissions in country i a i NH 3 emissions in country i α S,W ij, ν S,W,A ij, σ W,A ij, π A ij Linear transfer matrices for reduced and oxidized nitrogen, sulfur and primary PM2.5, for winter, summer and annual

24. Air pollution impacts Damage to human health: loss in life expectancy from PM2.5 mortality from ground-level ozone Damage to vegetation: effects of acidification and eutrophication for forests, semi-natural ecosystems, Natura 2000 areas Emissions of greenhouse gases

25. Results- examples

26. Current and future (2020) emissions of air pollutants in Europe, kilotons

27. An example cost curve for SO 2 Cost curves describe how pollution control costs increase with increasing levels of emission reductions.

28. Loss in life expectancy attributable to fine particles [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Calculations for 1997 meteorology 2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical Current legislation emission reductions

29. Excess acid deposition to forests Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, Calculation for 1997 meteorology 2000 2020 2020 CAFE baseline Maximum technical Current legislation emission reductions

30. More information http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/meetings/GAINS-tutorial/presentations.html http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains/gains-methodology.html?sb=10 Documentation Presentations