1. CANADA’S REPORT ON ENERGY SUPPLY AND DEMAND Energy Balances Gary Smalldridge, Chief, Energy Section, Manufacturing and Energy Division May 2009

2. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 2 Relevance of an Energy Balance  In an ideal world “Supply” = “Demand”  An energy balance is an accounting framework that seeks to reconcile supply with demand  As such it is a powerful validation tool in itself … “in a balance sheet it needs to all add-up”

3. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 3 Relevance of an Energy Balance An energy balance provides for an harmonized framework:  Harmonisation => Comparability  Comparability => Understanding of the market  Understanding of the market => Better informs the policy decision process

4. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 4 Relevance of an Energy Balance Will help identify discrepancies;  Different classifications: fuel, plant type…  Missing inputs or outputs to transformation  “Out of range” efficiencies Electricity, CHP and Heat plants Inputs to refineries vs. their refined products outputs, Coke ovens inputs vs. outputs…,  Incomplete energy flows; Coal gasification vs. gas production / consumption… Oil tar to singaz,  Differences in product/flows definitions; Natural gas production: raw /marketable Coal trade: contract vs. shipments

5. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 5 Relevance of an Energy Balance In summary, the Energy Balance:  Provides an energy supply & demand statistical equilibrium; “accounting” framework to validate energy flows from supply to consumption by economic sectors, reconciliation of supply/disposition vs. consumption data,  Defines energy flows within boundaries of economic sectors;  Starting point toward a better understanding of energy.

6. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 6 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL FACTORS AFFECTING THE ENERGY BALANCES  Environmental Climate change Statistical precision  Economic Development of oil sands Offshore crude oil and natural gas extraction Deregulation of natural gas and electricity Industry restructuring  Technology Co-generation of electricity Alternate forms of Energy Coal Bed Methane Other renewable fuels

7. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 7 Monitoring of the Energy Market: “An Evolving Challenge”

8. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 8 What is the Report on Energy Supply and Demand in Canada?  The Report on Energy Supply and Demand is an integrated set of energy balance sheets presented in both natural units and terajoules  The product was developed as the result of the need for this output by the System of National Accounts, Federal and Provincial/Territorial partners, International reporting obligations and industry

9. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 9 CANADIAN ENERGY FLOWS

10. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 10 Operational Strategy  Calculation of an integrated supply and disposition balance for energy  Maximize the use of administrative records.  Managing response burden  Conduct regular and frequent consultation with major users - industry associations, various departments of energy, etc.

11. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 11 ENERGY FORMS  Coal (bituminous, sub-bituminous, lignite, anthracite)  Crude Oil (heavy, light & medium, synthetic, bitumen)  Natural Gas  Natural Gas Liquids (propane, butane and ethane)  Electricity (hydro, nuclear, fossil fuel, other)  Coke and Coke Oven Gas  Spent Pulping Liquor  Wood and Wood Waste  Steam  Refined Petroleum Products (17 products)

12. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 12 Supply  + Production  - Exports  + Imports  +/- Inter regional transfers  +/- Stock variation  +/- Inter product transfers  +/- Other adjustments  - Transformation to other fuels  Net supply

13. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 13 Demand  Producer consumption  Non-energy use  Mining & Oil and gas extraction  Manufacturing  Transportation  Agriculture  Residential  Public administration  Commercial and other institutional

14. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 14

15. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 15 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK Export Data Total Total Supply Census Survey & Adminis trative Data Census Survey & Adminis trative Data Sample & Dispositi on Surveys Total Petajoules

16. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 16 Monitoring of the Energy Market: “Basket of Energy Commodities”

17. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 17 STRENGTHS  Captures all energy use including internally produced and consumed energy  Differentiates between fuels used for industrial processes and fuels used to generate electricity  Differentiates between energy products used for energy purposes and non-fuel use (e.g. natural gas and petroleum coke)  Provides information for a large number of energy commodities at a detailed level

18. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 18 SUPPLIERS VS CONSUMERS SUPPLIERS Directed to suppliers of energy:  smaller number of suppliers than consumers  company-based  economy wide detail  higher level of industry aggregation CONSUMERS Directed to consumers of energy:  large number of consumers  establishment-based  more detailed manufacturing data

19. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 19 WEAKNESSES OF SUPPLIERS SURVEYS  Problems coding sales to correct industry  Cannot differentiate between energy use and non-energy use  Sales do not necessarily correlate to consumption  Cannot identify secondary distribution of energy forms  Difficulty allocating consumption to integrated sites

20. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 20 CHALLENGES - MACRO  Lack of data on alternative and emerging transportation fuels  Data quality issues on domestic and foreign marine and airline transportation sectors  Limited sub-national energy consumption data  Measurement of cogeneration activities within an establishment

21. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 21 Challenges - MICRO emerging renewable energy sources emergence of small and medium scale electricity producers the delineation between domestic and foreign use of fuels (marine transportation/airlines) secondary distribution of refined petroleum products, natural gas and electricity fuels used to generate electricity ethanol production and sales

22. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 22 Links to more information Report on Energy Supply and Demand in Canada - http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/57-003-x/57-003- x2007000-eng.pdf

23. 28/08/2015 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 23 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION Gary Smalldridge, Chief, Energy Section, Manufacturing and Energy Division, Statistics Canada (613) 951-3567 Gary.Smalldridge@statcan.gc.ca