1. Protecting and Promoting Canadian Arctic Sovereignty and Security Northern Sovereignty and Political Geography in North America The Association for Canadian Studies in the United States (ACSUS) Washington, DC, June 14, 2010 Rob Huebert Rhuebert@ucalgary.ca Centre for Military and Strategic Studies

2. Main Themes A New Arctic International Region is Forming on a Global Basis The Arctic is a state of massive transformation –Climate Change –Resource Development – (was up to a high $140+ barrel of oil- now $80 barrel) –Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization

3. Main Questions What is the impact of a Globalizing Arctic on Canadian Arctic Relations? What is the nature of this new region? Are we witnessing the birth of an Arctic Arms Race? Or is it a new Co-operative Arctic Regime? How does it impact “old” issues for Canada? How does it create new issues/opportunities for Canada?

4. Sovereignty and Security Two Interdependent Concepts Sovereignty for Canada by itself is Meaningless –Sovereignty is a means and not an end –Canadian tendency (academic, policy and public) to separate the two interdependent concepts Sovereignty must be used to I) Provide Security for Canadians II) Allow for the provision and promotion of Canadian well-being

5. Security in the Canadian Arctic Traditional Security Traditional Security/ Non- Traditional Security MilitaryPolicingEnvironmental DiplomaticEconomic Cultural

6. Confounding Nature of Arctic Sovereignty and Security Non-linear Progression of Factors –Hard to understand interaction of change –Events can occur very quickly eg. Economic crisis/oil spills –Tendency to believe if things are going well now they will continue to go well Complexity of North –Will remain a very expensive and difficult region to operate in

7. Issue 1: Legal Status of Northern Waterways: Northwest Passage Canadian position – Internal Waters US/EU position – International Strait Issue is over Control of Trans-Polar Shipping 2 main incidents 1969/70; 1985 –1969 Manhattan was test run for Alaska Oil –1985 Polar Sea was operational voyage

8. Northwest Passages

9. Issue 2: Arctic Maritime Boundary Disputes: Beaufort Sea Beaufort Sea : Canada and US Control of Resources; Determination of Environmental Standards

10. Issue 3: US Multi-Lateral Reluctance versus Canadian Promotion Finland and Canada versus US – Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy (AEPS) Canada vs US - Arctic Council –Role of northern P(p)eople(s) –Treaty versus Agreement –Environment versus Comprehensive –Permanent Secretariat versus Volunteer

11. The New Issues/Opportunities Climate Change and Melting Ice Economic Promise/Environmental Challenges Changing International Law Changing Geopolitical Realties

12. The Image of Change: Accessibility The Melting Ice: Movement of Ice Sept 2007-April 2008 Source: Canadian Ice Service

13. Oil and Gas The Economics: The Hope of Resources Oil and Gas: Resources of the North Source: AMAP

14. US Geological Survey Arctic 2008 To determine the sources of traditional energy supplies 30% of undiscovered Natural Gas in Arctic –Mainly in Eurasian Arctic 13% of undiscovered Oil in Arctic –Mainly in North American Arctic

15. New Oil and Gas Activity –North America Exxon/Mobil, Imperial - Cdn Beaufort Sea/Mackenzie Delta: $585 million five years 2008-2013 BP – Cdn Beaufort Sea/Mackenzie Delta: $1.2 billion Shell – off Alaska North Slope –Currently preparing for drilling

16. But Change comes quickly.. Shale Gas US as gas exporter? Deepwater Horizon April 2010 Will BP survive?

17. Uncertain Maritime jurisdiction & boundaries in the Arctic www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic

18. Canadian Effort for Article 76 Natural Resources Canada

19. Canada US Cooperation Article 76 CGS Louis St. Laurent and USS Healy

20. But Continued Disagreements…

21. New Multi-Lateral Attention Arctic Treaty versus Existing Framework Ilulissat Meeting 2008 –Role of UNCLOS –Issue of US membership Chelsea Quebec 2010 –US critique of Canada –A5 not “inclusive”

22. New Geopolitics of the North Russia –Renewed Assertiveness/ Petrodollars United States –Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act –International Role as remaining Superpower Norway –Refocus on North/ Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia Denmark –Issues with Greenland – social; energy –Rebuilding Armed Forces Iceland –Economic melt-down/Volcano melt-down Finland/Sweden –Closer cooperation with NATO Canada –Re-examining its Arctic capabilities –Renewed Assertiveness

23. Policy Statements United States –National Security Presidential Directive 66 Arctic Region Policy (January 9 2009) –USN Arctic Roadmap Russia –Russian State Rearmament Programme 2007-2015 –Principles of State Policy in the Arctic to 2020, (September, 2008)[ Norway –The Soria Moria Declaration on International Policy,”(April 2007) –Norwegian Defence 2008 (June 2008): Canada –Northern Strategy (July 2009) Denmark –Danish Defence Agreement 2010-2014 Copenhagen (June 2009) Source: http://cmss.ucalgary.ca/foreignpolicy

24. New and Developing Arctic Force Capabilities Russia –6 - Borey SSBN; 2- Yasen SSN; 5-6 Carrier Groups; New Bomber 2020 United States –F-22, Virginia class; ABM Norway –Fridtjof Nansen Frigates; F-35; Svalbard Canada –Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels Denmark –Navy: Thesis; Knud Ramussen; Flyvefisken classes

25. Exercises Russia –8-9,000 troops 09; 2 Delta’s IV 09; Bomber Patrols United States –Northern Edge – 1993-09; 8-10,000 troops Norway –Cold Response -2006-2010; 7-8,000 troops Canada –Op Nanook 2002-2009 – 750 troops Finland/Sweden –Loyal Arrow 2009 3000 troops

26. Renewed Russian Strengths 1990’s Period of Reduction –AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub Decommissioning 2000’s Renewal Russian State Rearmament Programme 2007-2015 6 SSBN 995 Borey 2 SSN 885 Yasen 6 Diesel 677 Lada Yury Dolgoruky

27. Resumption of Russian TU-95 (Bear) Arctic Flights, August 18, 2007 If US/EU position on Northwest Passage is correct then these aircraft have the right of over-flight Replacement announced to be built by 2020

28. US Arctic Forces Submarine Forces: –Seawolf and Los Angles Class –Virginia Class is now ice capable Missile Development –Missile Defence – Ft Greely USS Honolulu 2003USS Texas 2009

29. Deployment of F-22 to Alaska 186 F-22 to be built 36 are being deployed to Alaska 20% of total arsenal

30. Fort Greely – Delta Junction

31. “New” US Concerns National Security Presidential Directive 66/ Arctic Region Policy (January 9 2009) “The United States is prepared to operate either independently or in conjunction with other states to safe-guard these interests” –missile defence and early warning; –deployment of sea and air systems for strategic sealift, strategic deterrence, maritime presence, and maritime security operations; –ensuring freedom of navigation and over-flight.

32. US Arctic Exercises Northern Edge Annual US northern military exercise Annual even June 1993-2004; 2006-2009 10,000-8,000 troops 200 aircraft 1 aircraft carrier

33. Arrival of New Actors European Union –Membership on Arctic Council China –Polar Bases: 2 ½ Antarctica; 1 Arctic –Arctic Vessels – Xue Long; 10,000 ton new research icebreaker –Interests: Climate Change; Navigation; Resources –Membership on Arctic Council

34. Canadian Arctic Policy New Military Operations since 2002 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels Nanisivik Refueling Facility Resolute Bay Training Facility Increased Rangers Patrols 4000 to 5000 -Number 58 to 61 -Training and Equipment Northern Watch Throne Speech Oct 2007 –Northern Strategy (Sovereignty/Security)

35. Canadian Security Actions (cont.) Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million Icebreaker June 2008 Canada First Defence Strategy (Harper White Paper) Arctic Strategy July 2009 - One of four pillars on Arctic Sovereignty and Security Postponement (Cancelation?) of Joint Support Vessels Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic – Nordreg (shipping season 2010)

36. Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel Be capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans Be first year ice capable in the Arctic Contribute to maritime domn awareness Support other departments, agencies and ocean research Have a gun armament for constabulary missionsBe capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans Be first year ice capable in the Arctic Contribute to maritime domn awareness Support other departments, agencies and ocean research Have a gun armament for constabulary missions Source: Canadian Navy

37. Resolute Bay Canadian Base Location Iqaluit Ft. Greely St. John’s Alert Yellowknife

38. Where are Canada and US Headed? Circumpolar states have called for cooperation –What will be the new international governance regime? Circumpolar states are building up their combat capable force for the Arctic –New Equipment – Ice and Combat Capable –New Policies – Unilateral “concern” –New Training

39. Conclusion Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after end of Cold War New concerns are arising as Arctic is perceived/becoming more accessible Issues will be Maritime/Aerospace Issue will be understanding intent of old and new actors in the region Canada-US need to have a new “Arctic” Understanding

40. Conclusion: What Does Canada and US Do? Will need to resolve old boundary disputes Will need to coordinate on Arctic Governance Canada needs to ensure that its has a full and robust Surveillance and Enforcement Capability for the Arctic