1. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.at The EU and Russian Gas: Is Ukraine a Game-Changer? Based on the joint work with J. Pollak and S.R. Schubert in ÖGfE Policy Brief

2. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.atQuo Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014 Is Ukraine a game-changer?

3. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.atQuo Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014 - There is no short/medium term alternative to Russian supplies Short term I (economic argument) EU Natural Gas Suppliers, 2012Type of transport, 2012 Source: http://www.eurogas.org/uploads/media/Eurogas_Statistical_Report_2013.pdf

4. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.atQuo Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014 - Economic interdependency between Russia and the European Union makes further escalations costly - The EU supplies Russia with a diverse array of machinery, transport equipment, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and agricultural products - Around 75 percent of FDI in Russia originates from the EU Short term II (political argument)

5. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.atQuo Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014 - Within next 8-9 years many major gas supply contracts will run out - During this time the EU can expand its LNG infrastructure and increase its bargaining power towards Russia Medium Term I

6. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.atQuo Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014 Medium Term II LNG Suppliers, 2012 Source: http://www.eurogas.org/uploads/media/Eurogas_Statistical_Report_2013.pdf

7. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.atQuo Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014 - Creating Energy Union  Solidarity principle  A large scale joint R&D program  A transparent system of gas storage  Emergency distribution plans - New infrastructure projects  South Stream?  Incorporating Turkey as a transit hub for Asian markets Long Term

8. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.atQuo Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014 - October 30: a 4.6 bln dollar “winter” package between Ukraine and Russia: “Unprecedented levels of EU aid will be disbursed in a timely manner, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reassured Ukraine that it can use all financial means at its disposal to pay for gas” Current developments I Source: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1238_en.htmhttp://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1238_en.htm

9. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.atQuo Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014 - LNG terminal Klaipeda (Lithuania) to start operating in December (main supplier Norwegian Statoil) - new LNG terminal in the North Sea (the Commission supports two German companies with €4 million) Current developments II Source: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1238_en.htmhttp://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-14-1238_en.htm

10. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.atQuo Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014 - A new structure of the EU Commission in the energy sector - Energy Union on the main agenda Future Agenda

11. elina.brutschin@webster.ac.atQuo Vadis Europe? – November, 13, 2014 - Energy Union as a top priority of the Commission - Opposition to South Stream as long as Gazprom does not fully adhere to the EU completion law - A new more assertive tool in negotiating energy prices with third countries Maroš Šefčovič on his future plans: Source: http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/sefcovic-tells-meps-he-has-vision-eus-energy-union-309359