1. Jostein Dahl Karlsen Chair, Working Party for Fossil Fuels, WPFF International Energy Agency Energy Perspectives Annual Petroleum Research School of Norway PhD Seminar 24 November, Norwegian Petroleum Museum, Stavanger

2. Points Global Trends Regional Developments Oil and Gas & Technology

3. 3 Oil and Gas a strategic commodity Gas Europe and Eurasia Africa Middle East Net Regional Import and Export Capacities Source: BP Uncertainty of Opec capacity expansion

4. Importance of Non-OECD energy growth

5. Modernization – basis for global energy growth in the long term Energy consumption vs per capita income, by region

6. Global Energy Developments 1980 - 2035 Primary energy demand – a continued surge by all fuels

7. Tracking clean energy progress

8. Policy Scenarios match different energy futures

9. 9 9

10. The world's remaining energy resources will not constrain the projected energy demand growth to 2035 & beyond, but large-scale of investment is required Fossil energy resources by type Total remaining recoverable resources Proven reserves Cumulative production to date CoalNatural gasOil 3 050 years 233 years 178 years 142 years 61 years 54 years

11. Gas to become first fuel - with role of LNG on the rise Source: WEO 2014

12. Long term gas supply cost curve Volumes faced in through prices that reflects cost Source: Resources to Reserves, Oil and Gas Technologies for the 21st Century, IEA 2013

13. Unconventonional oil and gas - changes the energy landscape

14. Economic implication of US unconventional revolution Source: WEO 2014

15. Cost of gas pipeline transport Technology can reduce cost - market push is still essential Source: Resources to Reserves, Oil and Gas Technologies of the 21st Century, IEA 2013

16. Lock-in of fossil capacity, infrastructure and CO2 emissions

17. CO2 emissions in China Ongoing/recent capacity expansion in coal fired power in China reresents +10 GT of CO2 emissions locked- in

18. Natural Gas is needed to combat global climate change Europe: CO2 emissions up! Major step towards 2 DS realised if the current investments in Chinese coal power replaced with gas by 200 mill. tons CO2 in 2011

19. IEA WPFF – China MOST collaboration

20. China Natural Gas Consumption vs Production

21. 21 Gas import mix - China Recent Russian pipeline deal

22. 22

23. What’s in the store for future fuels?

24. Technology Routes – China Gas

25. Coal to Gas

26. Global Gas Flows by Inter-regional trade towards 2018

27. 27 Gas to Europe

28. 523 800km 2 2 140 000 km 2 Norwegian Continental Shelf - an important source of supply in the long term Resources, NCS

29. Political solution in the High North Russia-Norway disputed zone : agreement after 40 years of negotiations Sector line Median line Settlement principle Barents Sea

30. Arctic E & P – a remote, but unique opportunity 1: Barents Sea 2: Southern Kara Sea and West Siberia 3: Northern Kara Sea 4: Laptev Sea 5: East Siberian Sea 6: Chuchi Sea 7: Alaska North Slope 8: East Greenland The worlds remaining petroleum potential N. Afrika Caspian Sea Middle East Rest of The world Arctic 8 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 Source: USGS

31. The Barents Sea Scenario - Long term perspective (Russia) Norway Markets Oil Gas

32. Addressing techological challenges Subsea productionCompression Courtesy of FMCCourtesy of Aker Solutions

33. Upstream Oil

34. Unconventional resources – a new regional energy future?

35. Shale and tight oil wells in 2014

36. Unconventional resources – what is in the store for production Globally? Presented by Schlumberger at IEA Gas and Oil Technology Initiative Unconventional Technology Forum, Colorado School of Mines, 29 October 2014

37. 37 Time to step up information exchange?

38. 38 IEA Gas and Oil Technology Initiative Established in 2013 to provide information exchange on issues of strategic importance Global Initiative - interest from major regions; - North America/Americas, Europe, Asia/Asia Pacific International roll-out currently ongoing Highlights: www.gotia.org

39. Thank you for your attention