1. School of Earth & Environment SUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Application of a decision theatre concept to the development of an agent-based model Catherine Bale, Ruth Bush, Katy Roelich, Jonathan Busch and Mark Powell Policy Modelling in Practice, CRESS Workshop 8 th December 2014

2. 2 Outline 1.Context – policy relevant research questions 2.Decision theatre methodology 1 st Workshop 2 nd Workshop 3.Insights from methodology 4.Discussion

3. 3 District heating 38 per cent of all CO 2 emissions are from heat-related activities We spend around £33 billion annually on heat Fuel poverty is a key concern Around 80% of our demand for heat is supplied by natural gas

4. 4 Agents in the heat system Local authorities have a key role to play, but host of other agents involved. What policies could enable local authorities to develop district heating? DECC Energy companies LAs LEPs Other public sector Commercial Network operators Households Commercial Communities

5. 5 Decision theatre Originally developed in Arizona State University, and used by Newcastle University to look at flood risk management. Prototypes for making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Actively engages researchers and leaders to visualise solutions to complex problems. Uses data visualisation, modelling and simulation References: ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY, Decision theatre network, https://dt.asu.edu/home. WALSH, C. L., GLENDINNING, S., DAWSON, R. J., ENGLAND, K., MARTIN, M., WATKINS, C. L., WILSON, R., MCLOUGHLIN, A., GLENIS, V. & PARKER, D. 2013. Collaborative platform to facilitate engineering decision-making. Proceedings of the ICE-Engineering Sustainability, 166, 98-107.

6. 6 Decision theatre Workshop 1 – Oct 2014 ‘Pre-decision’ theatre – to identify actors, decision process for model development. Workshop 2 – Spring 2015 Decision theatre – to use the model with stakeholders. Used to explore the district heating development process Pre-planning and heat mapping phase Feasibility studies and stakeholder negotiations Business model development and finance

7. 7 Workshop 1 - Aims For participants: Sharing and learning across different perspectives Opportunity to reflect on their organisation’s work with district heating For us: Contribute to research and development of ABM Analysis of policy and development processes for district heating Chatham house rules

8. 8 Workshop 1 - Participants Local authority Hospital energy manager University energy manager Community energy group representative Energy company Energy from waste plant manager Local authority Local stakeholders:

9. 9 Workshop 1 - Participants

10. 10 Workshop 1 - Activities

11. 11 Workshop 1 - Feedback

12. 12 Workshop 2 - Plans New decision theatre suit as part of Newcastle University’s Science Central. Participants will use ABM and other decision-support tools to explore policy interventions.

13. 13 Insights Value to participants as well as researchers – space to step back from day-to-day. Early engagement in model development – test framework. Participants on board for next workshop: More faith in the model having been through process? Pre-decision theatre as useful (more so?) as final decision theatre? Decision theatre concept has clear benefits for policy-relevant social simulation -> incorporating participatory modelling.

14. 14 Discussion Use of decision theatre methods in policy-making context?

15. School of Earth & Environment SUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Thank you for your attention! Contact: c.s.e.bale@leeds.ac.uk Twitter:@EnergyFrin Website: http://sure-infrastructure.leeds.ac.ukc.s.e.bale@leeds.ac.ukhttp://sure-infrastructure.leeds.ac.uk