1. 1 Human dimensions of climate change I. Perceptions and biases of energy consumption II. Communicating Climate Change Shahzeen Z. Attari sattari@indiana.edu http://mypage.iu.edu/~sattari Indiana University Bloomington School of Public and Environmental Affairs

2. Can we stabilize carbon dioxide emissions? 2

3. “Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century.” (Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004) 3

4. 4 Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies (Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004) Efficiency and conservation Fuel switching Nuclear fission Renewable electricity CO 2 capture and storage Forests and soil

5. 5 “ Improvements in efficiency and conservation offer the greatest potential to provide wedges ” Efficiency and conservation Fuel switching Nuclear fission Renewable electricity CO 2 capture and storage Forests and soil Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies

6. Update: Since 2004… 6 (Socolow, 2011)

7. Why don’t Americans conserve energy and adopt energy-efficient technologies? 7

8. 8 On why people do not act Information deficit model Motivation deficit model Don’t know how much I will save Don’t know what to do Don’t know how … Cost Time Effort Social norms …

9. 9 Understand how people interact with technology and nature Perceptions of energy consumption and savings - Most effective behavior? - Accuracy of perceptions? - Factors that predict accuracy? (Attari et al., PNAS, 2010) Overview work completed

10. 10 Behaviors deemed “ most effective ” by participants 12%

11. 11 Behaviors deemed “ most effective ” by participants Curtailment Efficiency

12. 12 Risk Perception (Lichtenstein et al., 1978)

13. 13

14. 14 (Attari et al., 2010 )

15. 15 (Attari et al., 2010 )

16. 16 Laptops overestimated 2x (Attari et al., 2010 )

17. 17 Dishwashers underestimated 800x (Attari et al., 2010 )

18. 18 (Attari et al., 2010 )

19. 19 Findings: “ In your opinion, what is the most effective thing that you could do to conserve energy in your life? ” - Participants state: 55% “ curtailment ” 12% “ efficiency ” Gardener and Stern (2008): “ efficiency saves more energy than curtailment ”

20. 20 -People have small overestimates for low-energy behaviors and large underestimates for high-energy behaviors  many implications for technology, education, and policy Findings: Major misperceptions in energy consumption

21. 21 Understand how people interact with technology and nature Perceptions of energy consumption and savings (Attari et al., 2010) Overview work completed

22. 22 Understand how people interact with technology and nature Overview Current work Biases in personal energy consumption (Attari et al., rnr) Perceptions of energy consumption and savings (Attari et al., 2010)

23. 23 On why people do not act Information deficit model Motivation deficit model Don’t know how much I will save Don’t know what to do Don’t know how … Cost Time Effort Social norms …

24. What you want to do vs. What others should do 24

25. Research questions Would there be any systematic differences in how people answer the following two questions? “In your opinion, what is the single most effective thing that you could do to use less energy in your life?” “In your opinion, what is the most single most effective thing that Americans could do to use less energy in their lives?” 25

26. Predictions If information deficits: –Distribution of responses should be similar for both questions If motivated cognition: –Systematic differences in responses between questions (e.g., listing an easy non-effective behavior for self and a harder effective behavior for others) 26

27. 27 Most effective behavior: Self vs. others

28. 28 Most effective behavior: Self vs. others

29. 29 Most effective action for self and other Americans Turn off (appliances and lights) Drive less (drive less, carpool, use public transportation, bike, and walk)

30. 30 I’ll do the easy thing, you do the hard thing Individuals who choose the easier option for themselves are likely to ask others to do the harder thing. McNemar chi-square statistic for asymmetry 26.1, p < 0.0001

31. 31 Findings: I ’ ll do the easy thing, you do the hard thing -People are motivated to list easier non-effective behaviors for themselves (e.g., turning off the light) and harder more effective behaviors for others (e.g., carpooling, driving less).

32. Questions so far? 32

33. Part II : Communicating climate change 33

34. The Psychology of Climate Change Communication

35. 35 individual and group decision making under climate uncertainty environmental risk Study of individual and group decision making under climate uncertainty and decision making in the face of environmental risk Cognitive, affective, and social processes Cognitive, affective, and social processes by which people decide how to cope with environmental uncertainty and change

36. Interdisciplinary (driven by social science, psychology) agronomyanthropology climate science ecology economics engineering environmental science geography history management meteorology oceanography political sciencepsychology

37. Availability of information = use of information More/better information = better decisions 37

38. 38

39. Scientific Information Increasingly present or sought in decision settings Often in the form of a probabilistic forecast –seasonal-to-interannual, decadal, and long-term climate change –natural hazards Or, technical information related to energy consumption Many barriers to its use by decision makers How can information be communicated and used more effectively? 39

40. Availability of information = use of information More/better information = better decisions Information deficit ? Motivation deficit ? 40

41. Decision makers are selective when attending to information evaluate options using both cognitive and affective processes are influenced by the context of the decision are influenced by beliefs, goals, and prior experience 41

42. 42

43. 1 Know Your Audience Subjective perception of risk –Different people worry about different things and two people may perceive the same risk as more or less threatening and manageable, and therefore worry about it to a different extent. –Subjective feelings of being at risk (affective risk dimensions) influence judgments of the riskiness of material, physical, and environmental risks in ways that go beyond their objective consequences –Perceptions matter, often more, than scientific facts. 43 Subjective perceptions of risk influence what people pay attention to in complicated situations and define how people approach and solve problems. Risk perceptions are part of a person’s mental model.

44. 1 Know Your Audience Subjective perception of risk -- Mental models –represent a person’s thought process of how something works, understanding of the surrounding world –based on often-incomplete facts, past experiences, intuitive perceptions –include relevant knowledge and beliefs that help people interpret new information in order to reach conclusions –especially when hearing about risk, people refer to known related phenomena and associations from their past to decide if they find the risk threatening or manageable –often serve as filter for search and uptake of information confirmation bias 44

45. 45 Illustration by Ian Webster, 2009

46. 1 Know Your Audience Subjective perception of risk Mental models –Confirmation bias Cultural values –Worldview, political orientation 46

47. 2 Get Your Audience’s Attention Spatial and temporal distance –Bring the message close to home 47

49. 2 Get your audience’s attention Spatial and temporal distance –Bring the message close to home Framing matters –Different strokes for different folks CC, health, national security –Loss vs. gain: losses loom larger 49

50. Ground Meat 85% lean15% fat 50

51. Temporal Discounting $60 nowvs.$60 tomorrow $50 nowvs.$60 in 1 month $50 in 12 monthsvs.$60 in 13 months 51

52. 2 Get your audience’s attention Spatial and temporal distance –Bring the message close to home Framing matters –Different strokes for different folks CC, health, national security –Loss vs. gain: losses loom larger Tailored information 52

53. 3 Translate Scientific Data Into Concrete Experience 53

54. 54 Rational/analytic systemEmotional/affective system Analytic Logical Deliberative Abstract – encodes reality in abstract symbols, words, numbers – rules and algorithms need to be learned – system needs to be cued; does not operate automatically Holistic Intuitive Affective – fear, dread, anxiety represent risks as feelings (Loewenstein, Weber, et. al, 2001) Vivid – encodes reality in concrete images and narratives, linked in associative networks – operates automatically and without any training Two Mental Processing Systems

55. Illustration by Ian Webster, 2009 55 Illustration by Ian Webster, 2009

56. 56 Rational and Affective System –Operate in parallel Affective system is faster, delivers output earlier No visceral reaction – no motivation –When the outputs of the two systems are in conflict, behavior is typically determined by the affective processing system (Loewenstein, Weber, Hsee, & Welch, 2001) –Personal experience or anecdotal accounts of the experience of others trumps statistical evidence Because past experiences often evoke strong feelings, making them memorable and therefore often dominant in processing (Slovic et al., 2002; Loewenstein et al, 2001)

57. Recency Effect Experiential processing gives a lot of weight to recent observations –Since rare events have generally not occurred recently, they are underweighted Neglect of flood control infrastructure –However, recency weighting also predicts that, if the statistically rare event has occurred in the very recent past, people will overreact to it

59. Likelihood predictions based on availability and ease of recall 59

60. Dogs on a leash vs. cats on a leash 60

61. In your opinion, which is a more likely cause of death in the US: –Falling airplane parts –Sharks In your opinion which, is the cause of death that is more common in the US : –Car accidents –Stomach cancer In your opinion, which is the cause of death that is more common in the US: –Tornado –Lightning 61

62. Availability Heuristic Allows people to make likelihood predictions based on what they remember, how easily these memories are retrieved, and how readily available those memories are Ease of recall serves as indicator of likelihood –Probability of a blizzard: greater for October or January? –Rule of thumb works fairly well; common events are easier to remember than uncommon ones –Yet not all easily-recalled events are very likely, but rather may have taken place more recently (recency effect) may have been distorted by the media, are associated with strong emotions (affect heuristic) Plays a role in judging the probabilities of extreme climate events Makes us assume that the future will be similar to what we have experienced so far

63. Finite Pool of Worry (Linville and Fischer 1991) 4 Beware the Overuse of Emotional Appeals 63

64. 64 Illustration by Ian Webster, 2009

65. 65 Single Action Bias (Weber 1997) Illustration by Ian Webster, 2009

66. Uncertainty is uncomfortable Interpersonal uncertainty when engaging in mitigation and adaptation behavior –Post-decision regret /Fear of isolation –Drop in the bucket –Free riders Benefits of group discussion 5 Dealing with Uncertainty 66

67. People’s goals matter –Short-term self-interest vs. longer-term benefits to society or the environment Tragedy of the commons (G. Hardin 1968, based on W. Lloyd (1833) A situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently, and solely and rationally consulting their own self-interest, will ultimately deplete a shared limited resource even when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long-term interest for this to happen Cooperation leads to greater benefits for all group members Defection leads to greater benefits for the individual –Multiple (often conflicting) goals 6 Tap Into Social Identities and Affiliations 67

68. Early engagement of all relevant groups Participation in problem identification and brainstorming of solutions Social context alters the ways in which people acquire, learn, engage with, and act on new information (Orlove et al. 2007, Peterson et al. 2011) Activation of social goals (Arora et al. 2012) 6 Benefits of Group Participation and Social Context 68

69. The power of default effects 8 Make Behavior Change Easier 69

70. goldblue Effective consent rates, by country – gold: opt-in; blue: opt-out Source: Johnson/Goldstein (2007) Do Defaults Save Lives? Science, vol. 302, issue 5649, p. 1338-1339. Example: Organ Donation 70

71. The 2009 BECC Low-Carbon Lunch Experiment ACEEE Conference Standard Meat-Based Lunch 90-95% Vegetarian Lunch5-10% ACEEE = American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy BECC = Behavior, Energy, & Climate Change Conference, www.BECCConference.org www.BECCConference.org Source: Karen L. Ehrhardt-Martinez, Director, Climate, Mind and Behavior Program, Garrison Institute

72. The 2009 BECC Low-Carbon Lunch Experiment ACEEE Conference Standard BECC 2007 Meat-Based Lunch 90-95% Vegetarian Lunch5-10% ACEEE = American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy BECC = Behavior, Energy, & Climate Change Conference, www.BECCConference.org www.BECCConference.org Meat production is responsible for 18% of the global greenhouse gas emissions (Pew Commission 2008) Omnivores contribute 7 times the GHG emissions than vegans Source: Karen L. Ehrhardt-Martinez, Director, Climate, Mind and Behavior Program, Garrison Institute

73. The 2009 BECC Low-Carbon Lunch Experiment ACEEE Conference Standard BECC 2007 Meat-Based Lunch 90-95%83% Vegetarian Lunch5-10%17% ACEEE = American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy BECC = Behavior, Energy, & Climate Change Conference, www.BECCConference.org www.BECCConference.org Meat production is responsible for 18% of the global greenhouse gas emissions (Pew Commission 2008) Omnivores contribute 7 times the GHG emissions than vegans Source: Karen L. Ehrhardt-Martinez, Director, Climate, Mind and Behavior Program, Garrison Institute

74. The 2009 BECC Low-Carbon Lunch Experiment ACEEE Conference Standard BECC 2007 BECC 2009 Meat-Based Lunch 90-95%83%20% Vegetarian Lunch5-10%17%80% ACEEE = American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy BECC = Behavior, Energy, & Climate Change Conference, www.BECCConference.org www.BECCConference.org Meat production is responsible for 18% of the global greenhouse gas emissions (Pew Commission 2008) Omnivores contribute 7 times the GHG emissions than vegans Source: Karen L. Ehrhardt-Martinez, Director, Climate, Mind and Behavior Program, Garrison Institute

75. Conclusions: How to Approach the Motivation Deficit Risk communication CAN be improved Keep multiple goals in mind, look for co-benefits No “one-size-fits-all” approach –Combinations of affective/experience-based and analytic information –Participatory processes to tailor information Group decision context primes collective interests Awareness of need for individual actions also builds awareness of need for collective action 75

76. www.cred.columbia.edu/guide/ Funding : NSF-SES 0345840, NSF-SES 0951516, Charles Evans Hughes Memorial Foundation

77. Plug If you are interested in learning more: E401/555 Human Behavior and Energy Consumption @ 2:30-3:45pm SPEA in Spring 2014 Contact: Shahzeen Attari Email: sattari@indiana.edusattari@indiana.edu 77