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Published byDaisy Haynes Modified over 9 years ago
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1 Transportation Forecasting Finally, Forward Planning for Logistics
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2 Simply Having TMS and WMS is No Longer Sufficient Logistics Challenges Customer Service Seasonal, Promotional Financial Pressures Internal Drivers External Amplifiers Tight Capacity Shrinking Lead Times Volatility Lack of Visibility
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3 No Visibility Beyond Existing Orders Every Day Another Batch of Orders To Be Shipped Trapped in a constant state of scrambling Last to know about promotions Prone to unscheduled events, rush charges, overtime, etc. Reliving the same emergencies over and over
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4 Logistics Operations Identify capacity constraints before experiencing them Proactively secure capacity with preferred carriers Avoid spot market Schedule warehouse workload Enable cross-dock efficiencies Job satisfaction & productivity Less scrambling Improve intermodal usage Carrier Collaboration Share forecasts with carriers Improve strategic partnerships Become shipper of choice Negotiate beneficial rates Help improve return on assets Fundamental Shift from Reacting to Planning Customer Service Best service via preferred carriers Improved score cards Become the preferred vendor
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5 Enable the Whole Company to Operate Against the Same Plan Aligned with S&OP Synchronized with the demand planning forecast and the manufacturing and deployment strategy Visibility to proactively respond to : Promotional surges Seasonal patterns Volume shifts from changes in your network Always current – updated daily based on the latest information
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6 Thank you
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Mondelēz International N.A. Journey to Transportation Planning & Forecasting …
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The NEW Global Snacking Powerhouse Company $35 Billion Total Sales $7 Billion of this in North America Diverse Power Brands #1 Biscuit and Candy #2 Gum Clear Vision & Values Transformational Leadership Safety, Service, Cost in the ISC Supply Chain Reinvention; massive investment for future Top Tier Financial Performance; we are overtaking our competition already! A Great Place to Work Awesome Values.. 8 Mondelēz International
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Mondelēz International: What is Transportation Planning & Forecasting… Capacity Requirements Carrier forecast Facility forecast (inbound vs. outbound) CPU Capacity Management Capacity shortage vs. current routing guides Capacity surge vs. previous 4 weeks average & F/C – Defining work processes Forecast Accuracy TF vs. actual TF vs. Demand (ADF) Compliance to Replenishment (APS) 9 Three Key Capabilities
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Mondelēz International: An engine to predict future demand related to transportation planning beyond orders. Close the gap between sophisticated supply chain and reactive transportation planning by making more information available to users. Allows communication between traditional logistic information silos (Promotions, DP/Forecast, and TMS). Application using open orders, shipments, and DP forecasts to generate transportation forecasts at the lane level with shipping modes and temperature channels. TERRA Transportation Forecast: TERRA Technology utilizes the aforementioned forecast and converts to truckload requirements. Truckload forecast is compared with OTM Routing Guides What are the Needs & Enablers to Developing the process x-functionally
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Mondelēz International: Benefits Desired Capabilities Capacity Requirements Capacity Management Forecast Accuracy Cost Prediction Promotion/Category Volume Planning 11 Improve Service Improve Tender Acceptance Improve RG Compliance Simplify & Restore Reliability Proactive vs. Reactive Focus Cost Containment Benefits Capabilities Enable the Benefits
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Transportation Forecasting (TF) Overview Basic System Flow
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Mondelez Transportation Systems Flow
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IBP (S&OP) Process Transportation Forecasting is dependent on Demand and Supply… …therefore, must be integrated Logistics Planning Fulfillment/Deploy Distribution Ops. Transportation
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TF Analytics TF Analytics is dynamic reporting information organized by modules TF Analytics contains four main modules: Forecasts shows, by day, the current and historical views of the daily forecast Accuracy used to compare DP/RP and TF accuracy Forecast Evolution similar to Forecasts, but shows multiple days in one view Category Volume Breakdown shows the forecast volume for each category
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TF Analytics – Forecasts Forecasts tab allows you to view the TF forecast and Orders Selection of Truck, Pallet, Weight, Case, Volume, or Cost from the Unit options Selection of Forecasts, or Intermodal Report from the Chart options
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TF Analytics - Accuracy Compare and analyze the historical performance of the DP and TF forecasts Truck or Cost from the Unit options Forecasts, MAPE or Bias from the Chart options Loc-Zone or Loc-Cust-Mode-Temp-Carrier from the Agg Level options
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TF Analytics – Forecast Evolution Forecast Evolution tab allows you to analyze forecast changes for a given date/time period over time
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TF Analytics – Category Volume Breakdown The Category Volume Breakdown tab provides the forecast volume for each category. The breakdown uses a splitting factor based on current DP
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Routing Guide Exception: Weekly Capacity Shortages Forecast/Demand results information is reconciled weekly with Routing Guide for Capacity, KPI Mgt., Carrier Communication etc…
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Forecast & Capacity Planning Actions Information supports: Product Supply validate volume S&OP and IBP Product Supply validate volume S&OP and IBP Customer Service & Sales validation of orders Customer Service & Sales validation of orders Carrier Communication & Collaboration Carrier Communication & Collaboration Demand Planning field reconciliation Demand Planning field reconciliation Transportation Capacity Management & Execution Transportation Capacity Management & Execution Deployment & Fulfillment Practices Deployment & Fulfillment Practices Future Procurement initiatives Future Procurement initiatives Benchmarking within the industry Benchmarking within the industry Cost Containment Cost Containment Simplification of Process Simplification of Process
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Results from TERRA Transportation Forecast Planning TF Planning continues to support and contribute to moving to BIC by supply information x-functionally is a systematic process 22 Mondelēz International NA Transportation has seen significant improvement in Service & Cost Containment over the past 3 years due to TTF and Planning KPI2012 YOY2013 YOY2014 YOY2015 YTD TF Accuracy 3.1%3.7%1.1%0.4% Routing Guide Compliance 1.0%4.7%3.4%1.6% OTD 6.1%12.1%2.2%0.4% RDD 8.0%10.7%0.7%1.7% EDI Compliance 1.0% 4.0%0.4%
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THANK YOU, AND ENJOY YOUR JOURNEY Joe Tuturice Mondelēz International North America Transportation 610-751-1650 610-751-1650joseph.tuturice@mdlz.com
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