2. FAOCGIARWMO

3. A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress. GECAFS Vision

4. How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security? What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions? Fundamental Questions

5. Global Environmental Change changes in the biogeophysical environment occurring naturally, or caused or strongly influenced by human activities. Food Systems an interconnected set of researchable processes encompassing food access & availability. Food Security a state or condition underpinned by food systems achieved when societies have year-round access to the necessary amount and variety of safe foods. Key Terms

6. Global Environmental Change Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality For example changes in: Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

7. FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Post-Harvest Handling Exchange & Trade FOOD ACCESS Affordability Preference Nutritional Value Components of Food Systems researchable elements

8. To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of global environmental change on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security. GECAFS Vision and Goal A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress.

9. Achieving the Goal 1.Improve understanding of the interactions between food systems and key socioeconomic and biogeophysical components of the Earth System. 2.Deliver the new science necessary to assist policy formulation for improving food security in the face of GEC. These are to be undertaken simultaneously

10. GECAFS Conceptual Framework Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation & Decision Support

11. 1. Conceptual & Methodological Research i.Food Systems Concepts ii.Vulnerability Concepts iii.Scenario Construction iv.Decision Support Systems 2. Food Systems Research in i.Indo-Gangetic Plain ii.Caribbean iii.Southern Africa Research Approaches

12. Develops a GEC science agenda that: targets generic science issues improves understanding of the interactions between the Earth System and Food Systems integrates natural and social sciences adds value to basic science by underpinning applied science underpins regionally-based food systems research Conceptual & Methodological Research  International networking approach  Led by small, specialist committees  Coordinated by dedicated Science Officers  Specific funding applications, mainly to science agencies Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation & Decision Support

13. Food Systems Concepts research questions 1.What parameters describe food systems so as to facilitate GECAFS research? 2.Within given food systems, which parameters are most sensitive to GEC? 3.Who are the agents within each major food system, what are their roles, and how do they interact?

14. Components of Food Systems some initial ideas

15. Five Major Food Systems initial typology Food system Main carbohydrate Main animal protein Example regions (FAO data) iricefishEastern IGP South East Asia iimaizemeatSouthern Africa Central America iiiroots & tubersfishCentral Africa Caribbean (in part) ivwheatmeatNorth Africa West Asia vmixed Caribbean (most) OECD countries

16. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental stresses Exposure to GEC FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY “Traditional” approach to vulnerability studies

17. Simulated maize yields: baseline and changes by 2055 (from Jones & Thornton, CGIAR, 2001) present2055 ™

18. GECAFS approach to vulnerability studies GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental stresses FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY/SECURITY SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc. Capacity to Cope &/or Recover from GEC Exposure to GEC

19. Food Systems Vulnerability research questions 1.What are the dimensions of risk in vulnerable food systems? 2.What are the levels of present risks and how sensitive are they to present trends and future scenarios of vulnerability? 3.How do risks compare among vulnerable populations, between regions and from the local to regional scales?

20. Scenario Development Biophysical and socioeconomic factors, eg: Climate, e.g. estimated 20-year return values for extreme minimum temperature Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Met Service of Canada

21. Estimated global water scarcity in 2050 (from Wallace, 2000) Regions are coded according to their per capita annual renewable freshwater resource (m 3 /person/year). < 10001000 - 2000> 2000 Scenario Development Biophysical and socioeconomic factors, eg:

22. Scenario Development Biophysical and socioeconomic factors, eg: Population density in areas where the length of the growing period (LGP) is <90 days.

23. Index of human insecurity (IHI) values for 1995 (from Lonergan et al., 2000) Scenario Development Biophysical and socioeconomic factors, eg:

24. 1.What are the plausible future changes in environmental and socioeconomic conditions that will affect food systems? 2.What elements of global scenarios are most important for regional-level food system analyses? 3.What what are the best approaches for linking global scenarios to regional scale so as to capture regional- level factors relevant to food systems? Scenario Development research questions

25. Decision Support Systems

26. Decision Support Systems development process Users must: help define what goes into DSS help design the interface and information content play a major role in evaluating/refining DSS help develop educational materials for DSS Must link closely with scenarios exercises

27. Decision Support Systems research questions 1.What is the best way to determine the information needs of advisors to policymakers, resource managers and other stakeholders regarding GEC and food issues? 2.How can DSS best be developed to help analyse the socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of adaptation options? 3.What is the best methodological approach to DSS development to optimise communication with stakeholders?

28. Regional Food Systems Research

29. Develops a GEC science agenda that: targets regional scientific issues relates to regional development needs interacts effectively with the regional policy making process encourages more support for the regional science communities provides contexts for conceptual research Regional Food Systems Research  Regional studies approach  Led by regional scientists assisted by GECAFS IPO  Specific funding applications, mainly to development agencies Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation & Decision Support

30. Principal Criteria: Range of GEC Issues Range of Food Systems Other Criteria (alphabetically listed): links with other ESSP elements (e.g. Core Projects, other Joint Projects) links with strategic research partners (e.g. FAO, CGIAR) regional coordination/leadership results can contribute directly to regional development policy Regional Food Systems selection criteria

31. CaribbeanIndo-Gangetic Plain Southern Africa Predominant Diet Pattern Mixed, mainly imported (majority) Roots/tubers & fish (sig. minority) Key Policy Issues Food security and self-sufficiency Trade policies and competitiveness Exporting quality produce & processed products Poverty in rural communities Main GEC Issues Climate variability & extreme events Water availability Land degradation Sea currents & salinity Biodiversity loss Sea level Main GEC Issues Climate variability Glacier and snow melt Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling GHG emissions Predominant Diet Pattern Rice & fish (east IGP) Wheat/rice & meat (west IGP) Key Policy Issues Increased agric. production Limiting env. degradation Improved socioecon. conditions Reduced labour migration Main GEC Issues Climate variability & ENSO Climate mean values Water availability & quality Land degradation Biodiversity loss Predominant Diet Pattern Maize & meat (majority) Mixed (significant minority) Key Policy Issues Food security and self-sufficiency Regional integration and trade Rural infrastructure and market access Disaster response and “safety nets”

32. GECAFS Research and the Indo-Gangetic Plain Goal To reduce the vulnerability of IGP food systems to GEC by improving policy formulation capacity for water management at national and regional levels.

33. Western Region (1, 2 & 3) high productivity – food surplus high investment in infrastructure major use of fertilisers and ground- water for irrigation in-migration of labour Eastern Region (4 & 5) low productivity – food deficit poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water high risk of flooding out-migration of labour IGP General Characteristics

34. Change with time in the importance of agriculture in national GDP, population dependent on agriculture, number of small and marginal farmers, and the size of landholdings. Data is average for all India. (Source: Indian Agricultural statistics. Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, 2002.) Context

35. Change in unsustainable area of rice and wheat in the Indian IGP as calculated by decline in the total factor productivity (TFP, a proxy of technological change). (Source: Johansen et al., 2000). Context

36.  The IGP food system is both threatened by GEC and contributes to further GEC “forcing”.  In the face of increased climate variability, policy requirements are to develop strategies that: a)sustain/boost agricultural production while limiting further environmental degradation b)promote food systems which improve socioeconomic conditions for the more vulnerable c)encourage reduced intra-regional labour migration  Research needs to recognise the marked socioeconomic and biophysical differences across the region. Context

37. Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems How would changed water management affect rural livelihoods, intra-regional trade, GHG emissions and water tables? How will climate variability affect change in water demand in IGP food systems? What changes in water management (through policy instruments and/or agronomic practices) will reduce the vulnerability of IGP food systems to climate variability? IGP Western Region General Questions

38. Specific Objectives  Improved assessment of the spatial and temporal vulnerability of food systems across the IGP.  Refined decision support systems to address stakeholder needs relating to potential policy and technical interventions.  Improved water governance from enhanced capacity of stakeholders to use different types of decision support systems.

39. 1.Standard characterisation and classification of food systems and their water requirements: five case study sites. 2.Refined and improved Water Poverty Index methodology. 3.Initial assessments of vulnerability of the food systems in relation to water availability for the case study sites and the region. Will build on regional research on: food production (RWC) diversification (IFAD & WB projects) policy reform in irrigation sector (IMWI) GECAFS IGP Research Products Stage I

40. 4.Decision Support Systems for analysing socioeconomic and environmental consequences of alternative policies and water management technologies. 5.Analysis of socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of alternative water policy and technical options at national and regional levels. GECAFS IGP Research Products Stage II Capacity building of regional stakeholders and scientists through collaborative analysis in both stages.

41. Participating Institutions Bangladesh:Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad India:Indian Council of Agricultural Research Nepal:Nepal Water Conservation Foundation Pakistan:Global Change Impact Studies Centre & Pakistan Agricultural Research Council UK:NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology USA:University of Illinois CGIAR:International Food Policy Research Institute GECAFSInternational Project Coordination

42. GECAFS Research in the Caribbean

43. Priority Policy Goals for CARICOM Food security Enhancing productivity and international competitiveness in agriculture Food safety Rural employment Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector and rural communities How will GEC interact with these goals? GECAFS Research in the Caribbean

44. Caribbean Research Regional Characteristics Many small island states Diverse cultures, environments and food provision systems Great dependence on food imports (~ 80%) Reliance on export crops and tourism to provide revenue Susceptibility to weather extremes Susceptibility to changes in preferential export markets Weak regional-level institutional connectivity Research needed at both “local” and “regional” levels

45. GECAFS Integration Need to bring together the conceptual and food systems research so as to achieve the Project’s goal Use GECAFS Conceptual Framework as basis Cross-compare and analyse prototype methods in different regions Phased conceptual and regionally-based research

46. Regional food systems research Conceptual & methodological research I II III Phase I: Preparation & Scoping => clear research goals Phase II: Project start-up => assessment & synthesis of existing information Phase III: Main analysis => science & policy contributions Integration through phased conceptual and regionally-based research

47. Integration Implementation Joint workshops and integration exercises Funding from both aspects Critical role of Science Officers

48. GECAFS Partnerships, Funding and the Future

49. Principle 1 GECAFS research must concentrate on integrative issues of common interest to IGBP, IHDP and WCRP, and develop research questions where inter- disciplinarity is required. GECAFS Design Principles

50. Principle 2 GECAFS research must draw together and build on relevant aspects of each Programme’s Core Projects and, by linking these with appropriate inputs from other organisations, set these in a broader context of coupled human- environment systems. National Research FAO SEI MAWMO CGIAR Core Projects Core Projects Core Projects

51. Research Relevance and Partnerships Science Natural Socio- economic

52. Science Agendas Development Agendas Research Relevance and Partnerships Science Natural Socio- economic

53. Science Agendas Development Agendas Policy Makers Resource Managers Research Relevance and Partnerships Science Natural Socio- economic

54. Science Agencies, e.g.: NERC NAS NOAA ICSU Development Agencies, e.g.: USAID DFID Ca. US$450k GECAFS Funding Planning and start-up funds 2002-03

55. Gregory PJ et al. 2002. Global Environmental Change and Food Provision: A New Role for Science. Science for Sustainable Development 7, 16 p. ICSU Paris. Franklin S. 2004 Towards a narrative theory of climate change vulnerability. Ann Am Assoc Geog (submitted). Downing TD, et al. 2004. Vulnerability Method Briefs Series www.vulnerabilitynet.org. www.vulnerabilitynet.org Aggarwal et al. 2004. Adapting Food Systems of the Indo- Gangetic Plains to Global Environmental Change: Key Information Needs to Improve Policy Formulation. Env Sci & Policy (in press) Policy Brief for CARICOM Ingram et al, 2004. GECAFS Science Plan & Implementation Strategy ESSP Series #2 (in prep) Science and Policy Products

56. IPO funding secured from UK-NERC (2003-08) Vulnerability Research Science Officer funding secured from UK-ESRC (2004-06) DSS Research Science Officer funding secured from USDA (2004-06) Application to APN for GECAFS research in IGP Application to USAID for GECAFS research in Caribbean Workshop on Food Systems definitions, UK, Oct 04 Research scoping workshop for Southern Africa, late 04 GECAFS Forward look

57. A robust framework for novel, interdisciplinary approaches to GEC research that examines vulnerability to impacts, adaptations and feedbacks. Summary 1 Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation & Decision Support

58. A problem- oriented, policy- relevant approach which can bring together the GEC and Development agendas, and their donor communities. Summary 2 Science Agendas Development Agendas Policy Makers Resource Managers Science Natural Socio- economic

59. A design for analyses at regional and sub-regional levels which will help develop effective policy to protect vulnerable sections of society. Summary 3

60. A methodology which allows an analysis of trade-offs between managing resources for both food security and environment. Summary 4

61. www.gecafs.org Getting involved Disciplinary research develops with IGBP, IHDP & WCRP Core Projects Interdisciplinary research develops in GECAFS in Conceptual research networks Regional food systems research