1. Agriculture and Food Security Agriculture and Food Security in Myanmar Gary C. Jahn Agriculture Development Officer USAID The contents do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

2. Outline 1.Sources 2.The Status of Agricultural Development and Food Security in Myanmar 3.Comparison with the region 4.Why is the situation like this? 5.Discussion: What can be done to improve the situation?

3. Sources Michigan State University / MDRI Agriculture and Food Security Diagnostic for Myanmar (USAID 2013) USAID 2013 Land Tenure and Property Rights Assessment of Myanmar ASH Center Studies 2009-2012 ADB Agriculture Sector Assessment, Myanmar 2012- 2014 Discussion Paper No. 63. Agricultural Policies and Development of Myanmar’s Agriculture Sector (IDE 2006)

4. Asia Source: http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/asia/_derived/index.htm_txt_map-of-asia.gifhttp://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/asia/_derived/index.htm_txt_map-of-asia.gif

5. Potential of Myanmar for Agriculture High Potential Exceptional resources (water, land, location, climate) – Water: 10 times as much per capita as China and India; 2 times as much as Vietnam, Thailand and Bangladesh – Land: 14 million acres virgin and fallow; 83 million acres of forest – Strategic location: near major regional markets Diverse ecosystems  diversification potential Relatively low population pressure High potential for increased land use

6. Population Densities CountryPopulation Land area (sq mi) Density per sq mi Myanmar (BurmaMyanmar (Burma)47,382,633253,954187 Cambodia13,881,42768,154204 Thailand64,631,595197,595327 China1,313,973,7133,600,927365 Vietnam84,402,966125,622672 India1,095,351,9951,147,949954 Bangladesh147,365,35251,7032,850 Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0934666.htmlhttp://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0934666.html

7. How crowded is Myanmar?

9. How big is Myanmar? Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0934666.htmlhttp://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0934666.html

10. Percentage of land used for agriculture by each country Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.ZShttp://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.ZS

11. So how does Myanmar compare to the region? GDP per capita? Farm income? % in poverty? Food security: affordability, availability, safety? Malnutrition?

12. Low incomes, high poverty Agricultural income per worker Poverty (%< $1.25/day) South Korea$19,807 Malaysia$6,6804 Indonesia$7303 Thailand$7068 Bangladesh$50711 Cambodia$4345 Vietnam$3674 Myanmar$19426

13. Status of Myanmar in Region Source: CIA World Factbook - accurate as of January 1, 2012 http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=67CIA World Factbook http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=67

14. Food Security in Region Cambodia Bangladesh Nepal Myanmar Pakistan India Sri Lanka Vietnam Thailand Malaysia

15. Malnutrition: Deaths per 100,000 Source: WHO, World Bank, UNESCO, CIA, country databases for global health and causes of death. http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/malnutrition/by-country/http://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/malnutrition/by-country/

16. High levels of food insecurity: Stunting by state/region

17. Lowest % of agricultural products imported (2010) 1 Equatorial Guinea 2.40 % 2 American Samoa 2.87 % 3 Singapore 2.94 % 4 Argentina 2.95 % 5 India 2.97 % 6 China, Hong Kong SAR 3.85 % 7 Thailand 4.06 % 8 Republic of Korea 4.42 % 9 Australia 4.53 % 10 United States of America 4.53 % 11 Zambia 4.63 % 12 Brazil 4.82 % 13 China 4.95 % Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspx; http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/200908302449/Related-news-from- Saudi/saudi-arabia-food-a-agricultural-imports-to-grow-by-25-in-2009.htmlhttp://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspxhttp://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/200908302449/Related-news-from- Saudi/saudi-arabia-food-a-agricultural-imports-to-grow-by-25-in-2009.html

18. Highest % of agricultural products imported (2010) 11 Haiti 30.11 % 12 Sao Tome and Principe 28.85 % 13 Tonga 28.22 % 14 Cape Verde 27.54 % 15 Tuvalu 27.44 % 16 Yemen 27.15 % 17 Samoa 26.50 % 18 Myanmar 25.54 % 19 Solomon Islands 25.41 % 20 Senegal 24.94 % Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspx; http://www.caribbean360.com/index.php/news/barbados_news/182495.html; http://www.presstv.ir/detail/37413.htmlhttp://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspxhttp://www.caribbean360.com/index.php/news/barbados_news/182495.html

19. Poverty & food security indicators In Southeast Asia, Myanmar has: Lowest GDP per capita, Low food affordability and availability High malnutrition, Lowest farm incomes High import of agricultural products

20. Historical Agricultural Performance Example: rice & bean exports http://www.myspace.com/123945320/photos/11106187#%7B%22ImageId%22%3A11106187%7D

21. World’s Top Rice Exporters 1961 Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspxhttp://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspx

22. World’s Top Rice Exporters Today Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspxhttp://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspx

23. World’s top Bean Exporters 1961

24. World’s Top Bean Exporters Today Source: http://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspxhttp://faostat.fao.org/site/342/default.aspx

25. Myanmar rice production

26. Rice production (millions of tons) ~5 million ha paddy ~8 million ha paddy

27. Why did beans out-perform rice in Myanmar? Fujita & Okamoto (2006) found: After 1988, sluggish growth in all crops covered by policy constraints But a self-sustaining increase in output of crops outside the remit of agricultural policy Today pulses and beans are Myanmar’s largest export item

28. What were these policies? In the socialist period: Farmers required to sell rice to government at below market prices A system of rationing cheap rice to consumers through shops and cooperatives Subsidized transport for rice – lowering price in boader areas Government monopoly on rice exports

29. What was the result? Link between supply & demand broken Domestic rice prices & farm income kept artificially low Farmers had no incentive (or means) to increase production; Remote areas lacked incentive to produce cheap rice No market driven demand for improved technology

30. What about beans? No compulsory sales to government at below market price. No rationing No government export monopoly Bean prices rose in response to increased demand inside AND outside Myanmar Production rose in response to increase demand for beans; demand for technology

31. Why is agricultural productivity low? Poor policies Poor water control High transport and transaction costs Conflict Land access, ownership, use Limited budgets for key supporting ministries Structure of agricultural support institutions Traders well-organized, farmers not Weak data

32. Let’s discuss current agricultural policies and how they are affecting agricultural development and food security.

33. Limited public budget for agriculture Location Agricultural research spending ($ per $100 in agric. output) Developed world2.40 Sub-Saharan Africa0.72 Developing world0.53 Asia, 20080.41 Myanmar, 20030.06 Source: ASTI (2009).

34. Structure of agricultural support institutions Weak links between farmers, research and extension Control and monitoring functions well developed; Institutional culture and resources for listening to farmers, linking them to research solutions poorly developed Policy has liberalized, but ministerial support structure has not.

35. Farmer organizations weak Illegal before 2011 (other than government- controlled cooperatives) Labor law now permits organizing Freedom of assembly permits gatherings

36. Unreliable data ItemData variability Population+/- 20% GDP growth rate+/- 160% Rice production+/- 50% Cattle population+/- 40%

37. Unreliable data Prevent sound policy decisions Limit transparency in policy discussions Impede private sector investment

38. Three Alternative Pathways

39. Business as Usual Low productivity agriculture Inequitable distribution of assets & income)  high poverty & malnutrition High volatility Myanmar can do better!

40. The Short Game: Improving Performance in the Absence of Structural and Policy Reforms + productivity of monsoon rice + diversification  high-value horticulture, fishing, poultry + build human capital of landless children + safety nets

41. The Long Game: Structural and Policy Reforms Necessary for Rapid, Broad-Based Agricultural Growth + increase public resources for agriculture + structural reform of support institutions - market-oriented, farmer-centered research system - extension mobility and modernization - agricultural education investments - farmer organizations + improve data quality + predictable policies + improved water management systems + improved land access + rural education