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Published byElisabeth Gallagher Modified over 9 years ago
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Manish, William, & Sarah
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CURRENT HOLDINGSSUGGESTED HOLDINGS AT&T0% Verizon0% China Mobile Ltd.2.41% NII Holdings0.98% Buy: AT&T2.14% NII Holdings0.27% Sell China Mobile Ltd.2.41%
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Smallest company of the three with a market cap of 3.93B Competes in a foreign, niche market in South and Latin America Has a high beta of 2.02 and behaves more like a growth stock Is a young company with limited historical data.
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Growth: Credit: History: Spin off of Nextel Rapid growth in Latin and Central America Downturn in profits associated w/unemployment and Mexico problems (N1H1, drug trafficking decreased tourism) 200920102011 Projected Sales 5.27B 4.80B 4.20B Projected Earnings350M320M250M 200620072008 ROE 2.73.2 GPM 72% 73%
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Valuation measures: Historical price ratios—the ratios have currently contracted, most likely due to the economy Future valuations—as the economy improves, the ratios should expand Relative to the industry and S&P 500 The ratios have contracted Target price: $33.86 Major determinants of value: operating margin on service revenues, depreciation expense and capital expenditures
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Relative to Industry HighLowMedianCurrentTarget Multiple Target E, S, B, etc/Share Target Price P/Trailing E3.20.151.40.19 P/Forward E2.20.041.30.04 P/B7.91.34.41.5 P/S3.30.92.01.1 P/CF5.71.22.71.5 EntValue/EBIT DA 4.101.062.671.28 P/Trailing E3.20.532.00.63 P/Forward E2.30.601.40.62 P/B4.70.82.90.8 P/S3.40.82.10.8 P/CF3.00.41.70.5 EntValue/EBIT DA 2.920.551.890.67 P/Forward E34.36.722.59.315.92.540.30 P/S5.40.53.20.72.033.765.66 P/B14.41.28.31.75.013.969.32 P/EBITDA20.381.9812.822.957.98.063.00 P/CF32.82.818.74.111.45.765.54
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Buy 0.27% of NIHD to bring the holding up to 1.25% of the total SIM Primary catalysts Valuation: 80%/20% DCF/Valuation model gives a 1 year target price of $33.86 Risks: Double Dip recession (high beta) Political uncertainty
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China Mobile provides a wide variety of mobile communication services in 31 provinces in China Largest wireless provider in the world by customer In January 2009, the company started offering 3G services Beta:.91
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Sell 2.41% of CHL Primary Catalyst: successful 3G network Risks: High penetration rate Strong competition in Chinese market Market in certain large cities showing signs of maturity iPhone?? Potential deal between Apple and China Unicom (competitor of China Mobile)
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AT &T -Company Overview Largest telecom company in US ( Market cap $147.68 billion) Best brand in Telecom - Ranked no. 1 company in telecom sector by fortune magazine (11 times in last 14 years) Business Segmentation Wireline Services – Voice and Data (55% of total revenues) Wireless Communications and Services (39% of total revenues) Advertising and publishing (4% of total revenues) Other Segment (2% of total revenues) Major competitors - Verizon, Sprint Nextel Corp. and T- mobile USA, Inc.
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Financials Overview ($MM)20082007200620052004Trend Revenue$124,028$118,928$63,055$43,848$40,733Up Net Income$12,867$11,951$7,356$4,870$4,487Up EPS2.171.951.891.421.78Up Total Assets$265,245$275,644$270,634$145,632$110,265Up Dividend1.611.471.351.31.26Up
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Sensitivity Analysis Current Price $24.45 Implied equity value/share$36.27 Target Price$26.99 Upside to DCF 48.35% Discount Rate Terminal Grow th Rate 9.51010.51111.51212.5 2.540.2337.4635.0332.8830.9829.2827.75 342.0238.9436.2733.9431.8830.0628.42 3.544.0940.6537.6935.1332.9030.9229.17 446.5542.6439.3336.5034.0431.8930.00 4.549.5045.0041.2538.0835.3533.0030.93 553.1047.8343.5139.9136.8734.2631.99 5.557.6051.2946.2342.0938.6335.7133.20
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Valuation Analysis Absolute Valuation MedianCurrent#Your Target Multiple *Your Target E, S, B, etc/Share Your Target Price (F x G) P/Forward E16.08.512.52.0125.13 P/S2.11.11.321.8228.37 P/B2.21.51.716.2727.66 P/EBITDA5.232.893.48.4628.76 P/CF6.73.946.2725.08
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Recommendation Buy 2.14% of AT&T Primary catalysts Valuation: 80%/20% DCF/Valuation model gives a 1 year target price of $34.14 Brand name, Market Cap and ability to form alliance- (Apple iPhone 3G) Pros: 2008 annual report marked Consolidated revenues up by more than 4 percent to $124 billion in year. Reported earnings per share grew by 11.3 percent to $2.16 per share. Returned $15.6 billion to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases. Delivered strong cash flow - 25th consecutive year of dividend growth Cons: Slow growth due to cut throat competition and worsening economy
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Buy AT&T (2.14%) Very large upside, largest telecom company in the US Buy NII Holdings (0.27%) Niche market, upside. Sell China Mobile (2.41%) Reaching its maturity, small downside, increasing competition
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