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Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright © 2010 Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. The Role of Enterprise Risk Management in S&P Ratings of Non-Financial Companies Steve Dreyer Managing Director U.S. Utilities & Infrastructure Ratings
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2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Standard & Poor’s Ratings History 1860:Henry Varnum Poor Publishes “The History of the Railroads & Canals of the United States” 1906:Luther Blake founds Standard Statistics Bureau to Provide Financial Info on c. 100 Cos. 1916:Standard Statistics Begins to Assign Debt Ratings to Corporate Bonds 1941:Poor’s Publishing and Standard Statistics Merge 1966:The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Acquires Standard & Poor’s Coverage Ratings on Securities Valued At Over $30 Trillion Ratings on Debt In More Than 100 Countries Offices in 22 Countries Scope Corporate (Industrials, Financial Institutions) Municipal and Other Public Entities Sovereigns Structured Transactions
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3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Standard & Poor’s Role in the Capital Markets Credit Ratings Provide Investors, Debt Issuers, Traders and Counterparties… – An Independent, Objective and Forward Looking Opinion of Creditworthiness – A Global Benchmark for Investors to Compare Credit Risk Among Peers
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4. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Standard & Poor’s Credit Ratings Scale BB+ BBVulnerable BB- B+ BMore Vulnerable B- CCC+ CCCImminent Vulnerability CCC- CCHighly Imminent Vulnerability D Default AAA Extremely Strong AA+ AAVery Strong AA- A+ AStrong A- BBB+ BBBAdequate BBB- Investment Grade Speculative Grade
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5. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ CCC CCC- CC D AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- 70% of Ratings are Below Investment Grade Counterparty Credit Ratings of U.S. Non-Financial Companies at Sep. 1, 2010 2% 9% 20% 42% 6% 1% 20%
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6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Default Frequency by Rating Category Copyright © Standard & Poor’s 2010 Sources: Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research and Standard & Poor’s CreditPro ® Global Corporate Cumulative Average Default Rates by Rating, 1981-2009 (%) (Time horizon, years)
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7. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. S&P Corporate Ratings Methodology MinimalModestIntermediateSignificantAggressive Highly Leveraged Excellent AAAAAAA-BBB-- Strong AAAA-BBBBBBB- Satisfactory A-BBB+BBBBB+BB-B+ Fair --BBB-BB+BBBB-B Weak -- BBBB-B+B- Vulnerable -- B+BCCC+ Business Financial Our ratings combine the Business Risk Profile Score and Financial Risk Profile Score
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8. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. S&P Corporate Ratings Methodology: Business Risk Profile Excellent Strong Satisfactory Fair Weak Vulnerable Business Excellent Strong Satisfactory Fair Weak Vulnerable Components of the Business Risk Profile Score Country Risk Industry Risk Competitive Position Peer Comparisons Profitability
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9. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. S&P Corporate Ratings Methodology Business Excellent Strong Satisfactory Fair Weak Vulnerable Excellent Strong Satisfactory Fair Weak Vulnerable + Management: Strategic Positioning Operational Effectiveness Components of the Business Risk Profile Score Country Risk Industry Risk Competitive Position Peer Comparisons Profitability
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10. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. S&P Corporate Ratings Methodology MinimalModestIntermed.SignificantAggressive Highly Leveraged Components of the Financial Risk Profile Score. Financial MinimalModestIntermed.SignificantAggressive Highly Leveraged Financial Cash Flow Adequacy Liquidity / Short-Term Factors Capital Structure / Asset Protection Accounting / Information Risk
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11. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. S&P Corporate Ratings Methodology MinimalModestIntermed.SignificantAggressive Highly Leveraged Components of the Financial Risk Profile Score. Financial MinimalModestIntermed.SignificantAggressive Highly Leveraged Financial Cash Flow Adequacy Liquidity / Short-Term Factors Capital Structure / Asset Protection Accounting / Information Risk + Management: Financial Management Governance & Financial Policies MinimalModestIntermed.SignificantAggressive Highly Leveraged
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12. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. S&P Corporate Ratings Methodology MinimalModestIntermediateSignificantAggressive Highly Leveraged Excellent AAAAAAA-BBB-- Strong AAAA-BBBBBBB- Satisfactory A-BBB+BBBBB+BB-B+ Fair --BBB-BB+BBBB-B Weak -- BBBB-B+B- Vulnerable -- B+BCCC+ Business Financial Our ratings combine the Business Risk Profile Score and Financial Risk Profile Score
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13. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. * “Discussion Questions at Management Meetings”, on www.erm.standardandpoors.com 1.What are the company’s top risks? How big are they? How often are they likely to occur? How/when is this list updated? 2.What is management doing about each of the top risks it faces? 3.What size operating or cash loss has management and the board agreed is tolerable? 4.Describe the staff responsible for risk management programs and their place in the organization chart. How do you measure the success of risk management activities? 5.How would a loss from a key risk impact incentive compensation of top management and on planning/budgeting? 6.Tell us about discussions about risk management that have taken place at the board level or among top management when making strategic decisions. 7.Give an example of how your company responded to a recent “surprise” in your industry and describe whether the surprise affected your company and others differently. S&P ERM Review for Non-Financial Corporations: Discussion Questions *
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14. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Managing Business Risks: Strategic Positioning Scoring: Positive Neutral Negative Credibility vs. Company’s Stated Objectives, Capabilities & History vs. Our Expectations vs. Industry, Market & Economic Conditions vs. Strategy of Peers vs. Company Culture vs. Shareholder/Stakeholder Expectations
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15. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Managing Business Risks: Strategic Positioning Scoring: Positive Neutral Negative Incentives Alignment of Compensation with Strategy Consequences of Underperformance (Businesses & Individuals) Culture Communication of Plans & Objectives Record of Implementing Policies Understanding Causes of Successes and Failures
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16. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Managing Business Risks: Strategic Positioning Scoring: Positive Neutral Negative Strategy Stability Frequency and Nature of Changes Unanticipated Acquisitions/Divestitures/Restructurings Strategic Fit Diversification Market Share Gains Availability of Excess Cash, Cost Synergies Valuation Considerations
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17. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Managing Business Risks: Operational Effectiveness Scoring: Positive Neutral Negative Execution Expertise in Each Key Line of Business Effectiveness of Audit & Control Systems Performance vs. Expectations Organization Structure: Effect on Efficiencies & Achievement of Strategies Risk Awareness Forecasting Ability Identification of Influencing Factors
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18. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Managing Financial Risks: Financial Management Sophistication of Financial Standards Financial Risk Appetite: Beyond Unadjusted Leverage Interdependencies of Risk Performance vs. Expectations Risk / Reward Tradeoffs Aggressiveness Capital Levels & Structure Liquidity Policy: Access to Financing Allocation / Quality of Investments Interaction with Board of Directors Scoring: Positive Neutral Negative
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19. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Managing Financial Risks: Financial Management Use of Risk Management Tools Detail and Comprehensiveness of Guidelines Asset / Liability Matching Appropriate Use of Insurance, Hedging Accounting & Management Information Aggressiveness of Accounting Choices Degree of Adjustment Required Transparency & Responsiveness, especially under stress Scoring: Positive Neutral Negative
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20. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Managing Financial Risks: Governance & Financial Policies Scoring: Neutral Negative Governance: Ownership Issues Degree of Board Independence Board Activism & Nature of Management Interaction Governance: Management Issues Turnover, Concentration Complexity of Organization Structure Governance: Stakeholder Issues Quality, Frequency, Consistency of Communications Frequency & Level of Regulatory, Tax or Legal Conflict
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21. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poor’s. Copyright © 2010 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (S&P), a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an “as is” basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT’S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P’s opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non–public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees. STANDARD & POOR’S and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. www.standardandpoors.com
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