1. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 1 The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 Marc Houyoux MCNC Environmental Modeling Center October 21, 2002 http://www.emc.mcnc.org/products/smoke

2. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 2 Overview l Provide a snapshot of SMOKE l Status to date l Emissions modeling trends l Recent SMOKE enhancements l Ongoing SMOKE development l Recent SMOKE applications l Release and support issues

3. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 3 Status to Date l Idea for SMOKE from Dr. Carlie Coats l Vector-matrix multiplication, I/O API, integer-based matching l Prototype based on limited EPS 2.0 l Compared to EPS 2.0 results for NC l Added EMS-95 format readers and processing l Compared to EMS-95 results during OTAG l Update and integrate with Models-3/MIMS l Update based on applications (ongoing) l Update for toxic emission inventories (ongoing) l Stand-alone versions 1.3 and 1.4-beta currently in use

4. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 4 Current Trends in Emissions Modeling l EPA – annual and national cases l More regional modeling centers starting work – WRAP: annual and regional cases l Processing for both ozone and haze l MOBILE6 – even precomputed emissions have been favored over episode-dependent MOBILE5b l Increased interest in SAPRC chemical mechanism l PC-Linux platforms

5. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 5 Improvements in version 1.4 beta (1) l Inventory Import (Smkinven): – PMC computation allowed when VMT in inventory – Added CEM data reader and automated matching with IDA inventories – Repaired EMS-95 hour-specific usage when trying to match with IDA inventories – Updated to permit computation of “annual” emissions when only ozone-season emissions provided – Corrected assignment of weekday normalization l Controls (Cntlmat): – Updated to permit cross-referencing at all 4 levels of SCCs – Repaired application of pollutant-specific controls – Repaired generating multiple projection/control matrices

6. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 6 Improvements in version 1.4 beta (2) l Inventory growth (Grwinven): – Correctly output IDA-formatted inventories – Updated to apply any number of projection or control matrices l Elevated source selection (Elevpoint): – Added support of user-defined selection by stack parameters, emissions, emissions rank, plant ID, source ID, analytical plume rise, and any combination of these items l Spatial allocation: – Updated for grid extractions (Grdmat, Rawbio, Laypoint, Temporal, and Premobl) l Temporal allocation (Temporal): – For mobile, allowed use of min/max temperatures from previous day – Corrected bug caused when output time zone > source time zone

7. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 7 Improvements in version 1.4 beta (3) l Biogenics – released BEIS3! l Layer Fractions: – Added usage of hour-specific plume rise computed outside of SMOKE (Smkinven, Laypoint, and Smkmerge) l Quality Assurance: – Updated to include reporting by speciation or temporal profile codes or gridding surrogate codes – Added selection of inventory records based on noncontiguous subgrid, region codes, and elevated status – Added normalization by population and cell area

8. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 8 SMOKE since version 1.4-beta l Main reporting utility (Smkreport) – Now includes growth and control – SCC descriptions included with area and mobile “by source” l Merge program (Smkmerge) applies mobile control matrices l 3-d sea-salt model added l Corrections – Corrected calculation of mobile control matrices (Cntlmat) – Corrected reporting by layer fractions (Laypoint) – I/O API fix corrected Jan 1 and Oct emissions (Temporal) – PC temporal allocation will now run (Temporal) – ASCII elevated files fixed to not cause abort or drop emissions in specific cases (Smkreport)

9. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 9 Known problems with 1.4 beta l Linux IDA-format readers broken l Missing CEM data not handled properly l Links with zero-length cause intended abort l Possibly error in temporal cross-reference files l Tmpbio crashes on Sun platforms unless all options files used l State/county “controlled” totals from Smkmerge have zero emissions for any pollutant, state, or county that is not controlled l Smkreport cannot report speciation codes for hourly emissions when MOBILE5b has been used to compute mobile emissions

10. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 10 Ongoing SMOKE development l EPA ORD developed new plume rise l EPA OAQPS having MCNC update SMOKE for toxics processing l WRAP RMC having MCNC make SMOKE more robust for Linux. – Seeking about $12K to release version 1.4 for Linux l EPA STAR grant program has resulted in version of SMOKE that includes inventory uncertainties l ACC having MCNC and UC-Riverside update SMOKE for support of dynamic SAPRC mechanism

11. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 11 Recent SMOKE applications l Support real-time MAQSIP ozone forecasting in eastern U.S. l Apply new sea-salt model in Gulf Coast for input to CMAQ l Develop CMAQ emission inputs for BRAVO l Develop 36-, 12-, 4-km inputs in eastern US for CMAQ l Annual CMAQ inputs for Clear Skies Initiative l Annual CMAQ inputs for western U.S. for WRAP l Support NH x cycling research project over eastern U.S. l U. Tennessee applying SMOKE in China and Taiwan l Canadian effort in northwestern U.S. and W. Canada for CMAQ l Northwest US demonstration of SMOKE/MM5/CMAQ l Illinois water survey: 90-km U.S. and 10-km midwest for CMAQ MCNC NOT MCNC

12. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 12 Release and Support Issues l Two primary challenges for SMOKE users: – Erratic timing of releases and bug fixes – Overall quality and testing of release content l To date, MCNC has supported most of the cost of releases and testing, which has resulted in less- than-optimal time spent on these efforts l Seeking community funding for support of: – Providing semi-annual, high-quality SMOKE releases – Creating and using appropriate test cases – Correcting bugs and release the fixes in a timely manner – Maintaining the SMOKE website – Annual cost estimate for this is $35 K

13. ________________________________________The State of the SMOKE Modeling System 2001/2002 ______________________________________________________Environmental Modeling Center 13 Conclusions l Lots of development and applications are ongoing with SMOKE! l The community is adopting SMOKE and using it l A community solution for funding releases and maintaining the system is sorely needed Last notes: l User-support is also needed, and the approach for this is being worked out through the CMAS l Thanks for your interest in and support of SMOKE