1. Chapter 7 Public Opinion

2. WHO GOVERNS? TO WHAT ENDS?
How does public opinion in America today vary by race, gender, and other differences?
What is political ideology, and how does it affect political behavior and influence public policy?
TO WHAT ENDS?
What role did the Framers of the Constitution think public opinion should play in American democracy?
When, if ever, should public policies mirror majority opinion?
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3. Warm-up
Why do you think government there is many gaps between what the government does and what the people want?
Public opinion polls
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4. Public Opinion and Democracy
The Framers of the Constitution created a government to achieve certain goals: “to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessing of Liberty.” – Preamble to the Constitution
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5. What is Public Opinion? How Polling Works Poll Random sample
Sampling error
Exit polls
Jonathan Nourok/PhotoEdit
American politics is intensely local, as when Rep. Loretta Sanchez shakes hands with a voter in her California district. p. 156
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6. How polling works
Poll=survey of public opinion can capture the views of 300 million by interviewing as few as 1,500 people!
Keys to a good poll: positive, comprehensible questions, wording questions fairly
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7. Random Sample
Means that any given voter or adult has an equal chance of being interviewed
Ex: make a list of all geographic units in a country (ex. Counties), group them by size of poulation, then select random units from each population, (down to neighborhoods)
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8. Sampling error Difference between the results of 2 surveys
Ex. One random sample shows 70% of people approve the president, the 2nd shows 65%, it has a sampling error of 5%
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9. Exit polls
Since 1952, every major poll has successfully picked the winner of the presidential election
Interviews with randomly selected voters conducted at polling places to get a representative sample of voting in districts (but it is hard with close elections)
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10. How does polling work?
Usually takes 500,000 population, pollsters need to make 15,000 calls to reach 1,065 people to do the survey (get a +-3% margin of error)
Read page 158: How the 2008 Presidential Primary Polling Went Wrong
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11. What is Public Opinion? How Opinions Differ Opinion saliency
Opinion stability
Opinion-policy
congruence
Jim Cole/AP Photo
Clinton winning over Obama and Edwards in New Hampshire when the polls said otherwise, p. 158
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12.
Identify and discuss some of the examples that are brought to light in this clip on public opinion
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13. How opinions differ
Opinion saliency=some care about certain issues more than others
Opinion stability=some issues opinions are pretty steady; others pretty volatile
Opinion policy congruence=some issues government seems in sync with public; others it does not
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14. Warm-up T Q1
Which of the following statements best describes the gender gap?
A. women are more likely than men to vote for a female candidate
B. women are more likely than men to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate
C. men are more likely than women to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate
D. women change their ideologies more than men do when they marry
E. unmarried men are more likely to vote for a female candidate than married men
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15. A1
B. Voting-age women support the Democratic Party in higher percentages than men
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16. Q-2
All of the following are characteristics of an accurate random sample EXCEPT
A. the questions must be asked in clear, unemotional language
B. people must have some knowledge of the things they are asked about
C. the sample must include at least 10% of the population
D. each person must have an equal chance of being interviewed
E. even the most accurate polls have some sampling error.
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17. A2
C accurate polling requires a random sample with clear questions about understandable topics. Although larger samples are more accurate, they are expensive. For any population over 500,000 at least 1,065 respondents are necessary to provide 95% confidence, plus or minus 3 %
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18. Q3 What is the effect of a college education on political attitudes?
A. people with college degrees tend to be more conservative, because they have higher than average incomes
B. people who have attended college tend to vote more as independents because they think more ideologically
C. people with college degrees are not as liberal as their parents
D. people with college degrees describe themselves as liberal.
E. there is no correlation between a college education and political attitudes.
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19. AQ3
D. Although people who attend college are not as liberal as they used to be, they are still more likely to describe themselves as liberal.
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20. Political Socialization
Political socialization – process by which background traits influence one’s political views
Genes and the Family
Religion
The Gender Gap
Bob Daemmirch/The Image Works
Children grow up learning, but not always following, their parents’ political beliefs. p. 159
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21. Mistake of the 2000 election
Cnn pulls back gore winning florida
Gore wins florida
Predict=what problems is this going to cause president/country/citizens?voters?
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22. Reading on how Genes affect political affiliation
Read article, discuss
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23. Genes and Family
1/3 of differences among political beliefs come from genetics (twins)
1/10 come from family influence
Do you know the make up of your family politics?
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24. Source: Institute of Politics, The 15th Biannual Youth Survey on Politics and Public Service, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 2008.
Source: Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, Survey: More Americans Question Religion’s Role in Politics, August 21, 2008, sections 3 and 4.
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25. Religion
Issues like gay marriage, abortion but matter less on economy, war
Look at chart next slide
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26. Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Gen Dems: The Party’s Advantage Among Young Voters Widens, April 28, 2008.
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27. Gender Gap Difference between men and women political views
Since 1980, women have voted in a higher rate then men/also more women then men in voting population
Democrats have the advantage of the women
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28. Political socialization
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29. Figure 7.1 Gender Gaps on Issue Importance (2006)
Replace with jpeg, p. 162
Source: Ms. magazine/WDN Poll, Lake Research Partners, surveying 1,000 randomly selected likely voters November 6–7, 2006.
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30. Cleavages in Public Opinion
Social Class=working-class (blue collar), upper-class (white collar)
Race and Ethnicity
Region
Lester Cohen/WireImage.com/Getty Images
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa speaks to supporters. p. 164
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31. Race and ethnicity
AA=Dem. (some younger AA voting republican for school vouchers)
Minorities=Dem
Asian Am/Anglo whites=Rep.
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32. Obama won women by 12 % and Romney won men by 8%
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33. Region South less liberal/East/West Coast Liberal
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34. Political Ideology
Political ideology - A more or less consistent set of beliefs about what policies government ought to pursue.
Mass Ideologies: A Typology
Liberal and Conservative Elites
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35. Take the typology quiz
Go to this website:
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36. Source: Adapted from “Profiles of the Typology Groups: Beyond Red and Blue,” Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, 2005.
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37. Political Elites, Public Opinion, and Public Policy
Political elites – persons with a disproportionate share of political power.
Elites raise and frame political issues.
Elites state the norms by which issues should be settled.
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38. Political Elites, Public Opinion, and Public Policy
HOW MUCH INFLUENCE DO ELITES HAVE ON THE FOLLOWING?
Racism
Sexism
Economic problems
Crime
Drugs
Foreign affairs
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39. WHAT WOULD YOU DO? M E M O R A N D U M
To: Cecilia Kennedy, U.S. Representative
From: Ronald Edwards, legislative assistant
Subject: Vote on comprehensive immigration reform
The 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) sought to stem illegal immigration by imposing penalties on employers who hire them, while permitting the estimated 3 million illegal immigrants at the time to attain legal status. Since then, however, the number of illegal immigrants in the United States has quadrupled, while law enforcement efforts to punish employers or deport those immigrants have been minimal. Your district is not directly affected by immigration, but voters have concerns both about maintaining law and order, and providing economic opportunities for people who have resided in this country for many years.
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40. WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
Arguments for: 1. Your district contains a large proportion of first-generation Americans, who favor a “path to citizenship” for immigrants who have lived in this country for years, regardless of their legal status. 2. Illegal immigrants often take menial jobs that nobody else wants, and contribute to the U.S. economy by paying taxes and buying goods and services. 3. A “path to citizenship,” with fines and other penalties for being in the country illegally, is the most realistic option for individuals who have family and other long-term ties in the United States.
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41. WHAT WOULD YOU DO?
Arguments against: 1. Your party leaders oppose comprehensive immigration reform, saying that enhanced border security must be a higher priority. 2. Illegal immigrants take jobs away from native-born Americans and cost more in public services, such as education and emergency health care, than they contribute to the economy. 3. People who entered the country illegally must not be rewarded for breaking the law, and enforcement can be effective with sufficient resources.
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42. WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Your decision: Vote for bill? Vote against bill?
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