1. OMSAN LOJİSTİK

2. Demand Management: Processes & Activities

3. Logistics System Planning /M/ apping /A/ ssessment /B/ alancing /O/ ptimization /R/ econfiguration

4. /B/alancing of Logistics Systems Trade-off management among logistics agents and processes

5. System Balancing: Two Types of Activities Execution (ALL logistics systems perform these activities intuitively or in a planned manner) Planning (Deliberate activities within the logistics system with the goal to change the system’s conditions and achieve a specific result!) Demand Management Fulfillment Management Sourcing Management

6. Logistics Planning System

7. Use the Past to Understand the Future MODELING Interacting Variables Direction of Interaction

8. What has changed… Today …. Real Data to Prove us right or wrong Mistakes are more expensive and riskier Execution strategies are so complex you can’t afford mistakes Computation power unknown to logistics management

9. Surprise or Control Inductive Thinking Plan the steps to achieve a desired result Sequential Uncertain results Surprise Linearity Deductive Thinking Determine the desired result Go backwards to understand the causes of the desired result Non-sequential Control Circularity

10. Demand Management

11. Factors Driving Logistics Change Shortening of product life cycles New product proliferation Power shift in the distribution channels Customer service as a competitive force Technology Global competition Cost reduction and profitability focus

12. Customer Service Decisions What Level of Service Should We Provide? –Levels constraint: A firm’s logistics system –Combine with logistics activities to provide time and place utility; the end-result of business logistics –Augmented product feature that adds value to the buyer

13. Customer Service Definition Three views –As an activity –As performance measurement –As a corporate philosophy Customer service – brand loyalty market share relationships

14. Measurements Time: Order Cycle Time (seller) Lead Times (Buyer) Dependability Communications Convenience

15. Trends in Customer Service The customer defines the standards Vendor can influence the customer Multidimensional Dynamics Information focus rather than inventory Measurable aspect

16. Features of a Customer Service Policy Unique Segmented Formal Proactive Extrapolated

17. Who’s the “A” Customer For…? … Sales & marketing? … Finance? … Purchasing? … Distribution center? … Transportation? … Inventory planning?

18. Customer Order Management What? Who? When? How? How Much? Where? …

19. Customer Service Policy Template

20. CRM = Customer Relationship Management. More than a fad Specialized teams Proactive service policy Information dispersion Performance-based rewards to sales teams

21. Intelligent Forecasting r Top-Down and Bottom-Up r Event Calendars r Incorporating Macro-economic and Industry Indicators r Individual Accountability for Forecast Accuracy r Seasonality Smoothing r Best-Fit Modeling r Capture and Measure True Demand r Measuring Forecast Accuracy by SKU and Channel

22. Forecasting Discouragement Repeated forecasting in the supply chain amplifies errors. The longer the replenishment lead time the bigger the forecast error. Price fluctuations and promotional events cause huge, unpredictable spikes in demand. Shortage Gaming: Customers order more than they really need and cancel orders when the shortage is over. Unfilled demand is not measured.

23. Forecasting Principles Measure and monitor forecasting accuracy. Establish individual accountability for forecasting accuracy. Measure true demand: –unsatisfied demand –overstated demand due to shortage gaming

24. Forecasting Principles Implement information sharing to let everyone know true demand. Establish and implement an event calendar to improve accuracy. Design organization and control policy to insure quick reaction to forecast errors.

25. Forecasting Principles Use bottom-up forecasting to predict category and overall business forecasts for country, region, and global sales. Use top-down forecasting to predict region and country sales for categories and SKUs. Incorporate leading/lagging economic and industry indicators in top-down forecasting.

26. Forecasting Principles Rationalize top-down and bottom-up forecasts with human intelligence. Stratify SKUs on the basis of demand and demand variability to determine: –forecastability –forecasting model Use best-fit model to predict future demand incorporating overall and seasonal trends.

27. Forecasting Principles Reduce replenishment lead times to reduce the overall forecast error. The enemy is forecast error and reaction to it - let’s do everything within our control to reduce the forecast error. The barriers to forecast accuracy include bias, ignorance, poor data, and denial.

28. Typical Demand Patterns

29. Selection of Statistical Tools to Match Demand Behavior

30. Revenue Management

31. What’s all about it? Solving the dichotomy of inventory and pricing Inventory decisions are made at the individual, unitary level Pricing decisions are made at the segment, global, multi-purchase level

32. Revenue Management System Capacity management –Fleet utilization Pricing –Corporate revenue (consumer’s sensitivity to price) Reservations control –Revenue maximization

33. Demand Management Principles Logistics strategy and customer service aligned with global logistics conditions Segmented Logistics Service Policy by Location & Conditions (Expectations) Consistent Use of INCOTERMS and Standard International Contracts Multilingual/Multicurrency/Multi-time Zone Order Entry Systems & Order Status Communication

34. Global Customer Service World- Class Principles Electronic Commerce / EDIFACT/EFT/ Internet/International Faxing Back order, partial orders, pricing and returns policy and procedures segmented by country/customer/SKU CS aligned with other GL processes (inventory management, procurement, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing) Pricing aligned with Service Policy

35. 3. Global Customer Service World-Class Principles Consolidation of all global logistics functions under one umbrella Accurate sales forecasting Vendor partnerships Proper documentation Flexibility to deal with special market situations High knowledge about international finance options and work with an expert bank in GL