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© GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 1 Deliberate Decisions About the 2012 Federal Budget How the American Public Would Reduce Spending.

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Presentation on theme: "© GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 1 Deliberate Decisions About the 2012 Federal Budget How the American Public Would Reduce Spending."— Presentation transcript:

1 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 1 Deliberate Decisions About the 2012 Federal Budget How the American Public Would Reduce Spending and Increase Taxes to Shrink the Budget Deficit Curtiss Cobb, Norman Nie and Saar Gold 67 th Annual Conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) May 2012, Orlando, FL.

2 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 2 1.The Budget Dilemma 2.The Budget Exercise 3.The Overall Solution 4.The Details 5.Conclusion Outline 2

3 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 3 1. The Dilemma The American public is more concerned over the state of the economy and issues related to government spending than any other issues. 3

4 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 4 1. The Dilemma The 2012 Federal Budget projects: $2,628 billion in revenue -$3,729 billion in spending $1,101 billion deficit 4 Leaders in Washington DC are unable to reach a compromise to deal with the budget deficit. Can the American public do what Congress and the President cannot?

5 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 5 5 Probability-based ABS recruitment Recruitment takes place throughout the year Representative of U.S. adults Includes: Adults with no Internet access (24% of adults) KP provides laptop and free ISP Cell phone only (30% of adults) Spanish-language Extensive profile data maintained on each member demographics, attitudes, behaviors, health, media usage, etc. Samples from the panel are assigned to projects e-mail invitations and a link to the online survey questionnaire 55,000+ members

6 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 6 6 2. The Budget Exercise 1,778 interviews with U.S. general population adults Fielded from July 28 through August 9, 2011 Interactive Budget Exercise -28 area of federal spending presented in random order -All 6 personal income tax brackets and the average corporate tax rate -Randomized whether respondents received spending or taxes first -Immediate feedback to respondents -Allowed respondents to change responses as much as they wanted until they reached their preferred solution

7 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 7 1. The Budget Exercise Spending 7

8 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 8 2. The Budget Exercise Revenue 8

9 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 9 9 3. The Overall Solution The “average” American wants… Results in a $27 billion surplus for 2012. *Spending and Revenue do not match total federal spending or revenue due to only asking respondents about a subset of programs and taxes.

10 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 10 3. The Overall Solution Distribution of Spending Solutions 19% wants less than $1 trillion in spending. 3% want to increase spending.

11 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 11 3. The Overall Solution Without the slash and burn crowd, the “average” American wants to cut spending by 13% and increase revenue through taxes by 10%. That amounts to $3 in spending reductions for every $1 in new tax revenue.

12 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 12 3. The Overall Solution There are clear differences across the political spectrum, but every group’s total solution is within $100 billion of each other. Overall Spending Reduction Overall Revenue Increase Remaining Deficit Democrats Republicans Independents $427 B $540 B $469 B $182 B $ 80 B $163 B $492 B $481 B $469 B Liberals Conservatives Moderates $432 B $535 B $420 B $239 B $ 95 B $129 B $430 B $471 B $552 B

13 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 13 3. The Overall Solution Average Desired Tax Rate for High Earners and Corporations $174,400 to $379,149 (Currently 33%) $379,150 or More (Currently 35%) Average Corporate Rate (Currently 35%) All Americans33.5%37.6%38.3% Democrats Republicans Independents 34.0% 32.6% 34.0% 38.9% 35.7% 38.0% 40.0% 35.9% 38.6% Liberals Conservatives Moderates 35.4% 32.8% 33.2% 40.4% 36.4% 36.9% 41.2% 36.5% 38.2%

14 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 14 3. The Overall Solution There is almost no taste for making major cuts to entitlement programs. Cut by more than 15% Cut by10-15% Cut by 1-10% Individual want to raise taxes on those that earn more than they do themselves and on corporations.

15 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 15 3. The Overall Solution The solution looks simple at this level, however…. The Devil is always in the details.

16 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 16 4. The Details With few exceptions, agreement on spending is highest among categories the public wants to cut least (on average)… 7% Cut5% Cut11% Cut 13% Cut 20% Cut 7% Cut5% Cut 11% Cut 13% Cut 20% Cut Highest Agreement

17 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 17 4. The Details And lowest among categories the public most wants to cut. Lowest Agreement 56% Cut5% Increase30% Cut 13% Cut23% Cut1% Cut

18 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 18 4. The Details SOCIAL WELFARE (W) Medicare Social Security Healthcare Services Federal Employee Retirement Unemployment Compensation Food & Nutrition Assistance Income Assistance SPECIAL INTEREST (I) State Department Agricultural Subsidies Childcare Assistance Corporate Tax Savings Oil & Gas Subsidies SECURITY (S) Federal Administration of Justice Homeland Security Regular Military Operations Iraq/Afghanistan Wars THE FUTURE (F) Transportation Electrical Grid Scientific & Medical Research Environment & Natural Resources Elementary & Secondary Ed Higher Ed Moreover, there are 4 competing spending priorities, which makes reaching a compromise a multi-dimensional problem with no median vote

19 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 19 4. The Details Ranked spending priorities show differences along partisan lines Partisanship Rank Priority Lib Dem Mod/ Con Dem Mod/Lib Ind Con Ind Mod/Lib Rep Con Rep 1stFIWSIS 2 nd WWFWWI 3 rd ISSFSW 4thSFIIFF W=Social Welfare; S=Security; F=The Future; I=Special Interest

20 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 20 4. The Details Ranked spending priorities show differences along age and race/ethnic lines. W=Social Welfare; S=Security; F=The Future; I=Special Interest Age GroupsRace/Ethnicity Rank Priority 18-34 yrs. 35-44 yrs. 45-54 yrs. 55+ yrs. WhiteBlackHispanic 1stIFSWSII 2 nd FIWSWWF 3 rd SSIIFFS 4thWWFFISW

21 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 21 1.The average solution is $3 in less spending for every $1 in new revenue. 2.Differences in political views seem relatively modest. 3.There is almost no taste for making major cuts to existing domestic entitlement programs. 4.Moreover, there are 4 competing spending priorities, which makes reaching a compromise a multi-dimensional problem with no median vote. 5. Conclusions 21

22 © GfK 2012 | Title of presentation | DD. Month 2012 22 Thank you! curtiss.cobb@gfk.com Curtiss L. Cobb III is Director of Survey Methodology at GfK. Norman H. Nie is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Chicago and Stanford University, and co-founder of Knowledge Networks, now a GfK company. Saar Golde is Data Solutions Architect at Revolution Analytics.

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