1. 2013 Industry Panel: Job Growth... fact or fiction? Thanks to sponsor Alex Hayden ’95 CEO, Cushman and Wakefield and Chair of Career and Industry Partnerships, Chapman50

2. A. GARY ANDERSON CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH ARGYROS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS Presented by Esmael Adibi, Ph.D.

3. NBER Recession & Recovery Indicators   Real GDP   Personal Income Less Transfer Payments   Industrial Production   Real Sales Value of Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail Sector   Employment

4. Recessions’ Impact % Change / Real GDP % Change / Employment 2007 1948 1957 1981 1953 1960 2001 1969 1990 1980 1973 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%-7%0%

5. Recessions’ Impact % Change / Real GDP % Change / Employment 2007 1948 1957 1981 1953 1960 2001 1969 1990 1980 1973 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%-7%0%

6. Real GDP Growth Employment Inflation Long-term Interest Rates Corporate Profits Government Purchases Consumption Investment Net Exports Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy

7. Real GDP & Payroll Employment 2007-09 Recession and Recovery Index LABOR FORCE EMPLOYMENT Quarters Real GDP Payroll Employment +3.2% -2.1% -4.7% -6.2% ’07 Q4 ’11 Q4 ’08 Q1

8. Real GDP Yr/Yr % Change Annual % Change 2.4 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.7

9. Payroll Employment In Thousands U.S.

10. Payroll Job Growth Annual % Change OC U.S.

11. Change in Payroll Employment Dec. 2011 to Dec. 2012 Orange County Sectors Construction Financial Activities Educational & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Professional & Business Services Information Manufacturing Trade, Transportation & Utilities Government Other Services Total Nonfarm 4,300 5,700 7,900 6,900 8,200 600 1,800 400 -1,000 -400 34,400 Change % Change 6.2 5.4 4.9 3.9 3.3 2.5 1.2 0.2 -0.7 -0.9 2.5

12. Payroll Employment Orange County In Thousands -162,000 jobs +64,000 jobs Not Seasonally Adjusted

13. Educational & Health Services Orange County In Thousands of Jobs +9,000 jobs +13,000 jobs Not Seasonally Adjusted

14. Manufacturing Orange County In Thousands of Jobs -28,000 jobs +8,000 jobs Not Seasonally Adjusted

15. Construction Orange County In Thousands of Jobs -31,000 jobs +5,000 jobs Not Seasonally Adjusted

16. The Most Influential Economic Variables Affecting Job Outlook Projected Impact 200920102011201220132014 Real GDP Real Exports Construction Spending -3.1% -9.1% -26.6% +2.4% +1.8% +2.2% +11.1% +6.7% +3.4% -33.7%-4.9% +10.7% +2.0%+2.7%

17. The Most Influential Economic Variables Affecting Job Outlook Projected Impact 200920102011201220132014 Real GDP Real Exports Construction Spending -3.1% -9.1% -26.6% +2.4% +1.8% +2.2% +11.1% +6.7% +3.4% -33.7%-4.9% +10.7% +2.0% +1.2% +2.7% +2.3%

18. The Most Influential Economic Variables Affecting Job Outlook Projected Impact 200920102011201220132014 Real GDP Real Exports Construction Spending -3.1% -9.1% -26.6% +2.4% +1.8% +2.2% +11.1% +6.7% +3.4% -33.7%-4.9% +10.7% +2.0% +1.2% +15.4% +2.7% +2.3% +17.6%

19. Job Growth Annual % Change +32K JOBS ORANGE COUNTY +37K JOBS +32K JOBS +15K JOBS

20. Job Growth by Sector & Average Pay Per Worker Above Average Construction Professional & Business Services Education & Health Care Services Leisure & Hospitality Financial Services Below Average Retail Trade Manufacturing Information State & Local Government Federal Government ($61K) ($66K) ($54K) ($21K) ($98K) ($51K) ($67K) ($78K) ($53K) ($73K) Orange County Job Growth by Sector

21. F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y Health Care Sector Christopher de Rosa, President of Cigna- Western Region

22. F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y 22 Confidential, unpublished property of Cigna. Do not duplicate or distribute. Use and distribution limited solely to authorized personnel. © 2012 Cigna

23. F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y 23 Confidential, unpublished property of Cigna. Do not duplicate or distribute. Use and distribution limited solely to authorized personnel. © 2012 Cigna

24. F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y 24 Confidential, unpublished property of Cigna. Do not duplicate or distribute. Use and distribution limited solely to authorized personnel. © 2012 Cigna

25. F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y "Cigna" is a registered service mark and the "Tree of Life" logo and “GO YOU” are service marks of Cigna Intellectual Property, Inc., licensed for use by Cigna Corporation and its operating subsidiaries. All products and services are provided by such operating subsidiaries and not by Cigna Corporation. Such operating subsidiaries include Connecticut General Life Insurance Company, Cigna Health and Life Insurance Company, and HMO or service company subsidiaries of Cigna Health Corporation and Cigna Dental Health, Inc. All models are used for illustrative purposes only. 000000 00/12 © 2012 Cigna. Some content provided under license.

26. Chapman 50 Industry Job Growth Panel Matthew Jenusaitis President, OCTANe July 23, 2013

27. Where people and ideas come together with capital and resources to fuel Orange County’s high technology ecosystem

28. Future Job Requirements Science and Technology: 131,300 Jobs 2020 2020:131,300 Today:111,900 Requirement:19,400 New Jobs Requirement Science and Technology: 111,900 Jobs 2012

29. IT Sector Job Growth Employment 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 $0 $1 $2 $3 Payroll ($Billions) Hardware Software 2002: 1,171 Companies 2011: 1,643 Companies 2002: 296 Companies 2011: 223 Companies

30. Life Science Sector Job Growth Employment 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 14,000 $0 $0.5 $1 $1.5 Payroll ($Billions) Pharma/Biotech Devices 2002: 124 Companies 2011: 134 Companies 2002: 84 Companies 2002: 97 Companies

31. Where the Money Is ($MM) Orange County Investments in Q1 2013 Source: PWC Moneytree

32. LaunchPad 2010-2013 Economic Impact Companies Funded Capital Raised Since 2004 Companies Funding 20102011 Jobs Created Direct Indirect Multiplier Total Jobs County Taxes Generated State Taxes Generated 11 $7.3MM 113 91 77 281 $1.5MM $130,000 21 $15.9MM 193 143 156 492 $2.5MM $372,000 $218MM 2012 27 $77MM $325MM 314 404 333 1,033 $5.3MM $783,000 2013* 9 $19MM $382MM 171

33. Jobs Created by LaunchPad Companies Direct and Indirect Job Creation Note 1: Includes Bureau of Labor Statistics multiplier effect Goal: 10,000 Jobs by 2020

34. Thank You

35. Housing Sector 35 Richard Douglass, Division President, Ryland Homes- Southern California

36. Observations as of July 2013 Significant price appreciation in past 12-18 months. Premium locations gain premium pricing. There is Irvine and then there is the rest of the world. Media reports over-generalize- there are still areas of slow housing recovery. Quality labor in VERY short supply. Regulation will still inhibit growth. Next phases of land development will be more capital intensive 36

37. 37 Orange County Permits

38. 38 San Diego Permits

39. 39 Riverside-SB Permits

40. 40 Los Angeles Permits

41. Construction Employment Number of construction jobs pre-recession and post-recession: Statewide 2006 – 933,700 peak 2010 – 559,800 bottom 2013 – 603,400 current Orange County 2006 – 106,600 peak 2010 – 68,000 bottom 2013 – 72,100 current Southern California 2006 – 412,100 peak 2011 – 227,600 bottom 2012 – 207,200 *No recent data from all SoCal counties (LA, Orange, Ventura). We can only speculate that Riverside and San Bernardino have been consistent in employment. We can infer high numbers from LA, Orange, and Ventura indicate this is a positive trend. 41

42. 2013 Industry Panel: Job Growth... fact or fiction? Thanks to sponsor Alex Hayden ’95 CEO, Cushman and Wakefield and Chair of Career and Industry Partnerships, Chapman50