1. NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) and ROMS Applications in NOS Operational Forecast Systems Aijun Zhang 1, Mark Vincent 2, Frank Aikman 3 Eugene Wei 3, Richard A. Schmalz, Jr. 3, Lyon Lanerolle 3 1 Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS), National Ocean Service/NOAA 2 Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/NOAA 3 Coast Survey Development Laboratory, National Ocean Service/NOAA April 6, 2010

2. Outline What and how NOAA does coastal operational forecast systems Some examples of ROMS applications Challenges and wish list

3. NOS Oceanographic Forecast Systems Requirements  Primary Mission:Support of safe & efficient navigation Water levels for under-keel clearance Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability  Emergency response (provide circulation, T, S etc. fundamental information) HAZMAT Search & Rescue Homeland Security  For environmentally sound management of the coastal zone Ecosystem applications Marine geospatial applications Salinity SST

4. Great Lakes (Mar. 2006) New York Harbor (Feb. 2003) Delaware Bay St. Johns River (Oct. 2005) Galveston Bay (Jun. 2004) Chesapeake Bay (Aug. 2001) Gulf of Mexico Tampa Bay Cook Inlet San Francisco Columbia River

5. New NOS OFS Strategy Global/Basin Model from Navy and NWS/NOAA (e.g. NCOM, HYCOM, RTOFS, etc.) Shelf models to fill gaps between global/basin model and coastal/estuarine model (Gulf of Mexico Shelf, West Coast Shelf, East Coast Shelf, etc.), provide better boundary conditions for coastal/Estuarine models Coastal/Estuarine model nested with Shelf models

6. FY 2010 – 2015 Development and Implementation Schedule for Operational Forecast Systems Fiscal Year of Operational Delivery Water Body of new Operational Model Water Body of Retrofitted Operational Model Hydrodynamic Model Selected # of Operational Models on NOS Computers # of Operational Models on NOAA High Performance Computers (HPC) Total # of Operational Models FY10 Tampa Bay Delaware Bay Chesapeake Bay 5 Great Lakes ROMS POM (GLERL) 3811 FY11 Columbia River Northern Gulf of Mexico (New Orleans to Mobile) SELFE FVCOM 31013 FY12 Gulf of Mexico Region (Sabine Pass to New Orleans) San Francisco Galveston Bay ROMS or FVCOM 11415 FY13 Narragansett Bay/Long Island Sound Puget Sound New York/New Jersey St. Johns River FVCOM ROMS or FVCOM 0 18 FY14 Cook Inlet Huron Erie Corridor (GLERL) or Prince William Sound 5 Great Lakes ROMS or FVCOM FVCOM FVCOM (GLERL) 020 FY15 Eastern GOM-WFS West Coast Shelf ROMS or FVCOM 22

7. Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) PURPOSE: Efficient R&D, O&M for NOS OFS Easy Data Handling & Maintenance Single System for all Locations Single standard tool for Graphics and Web Pages Standard skill assessment and evaluation Tools Standard NOS Model products to Users Various Models Allowed ADCIRC, ECOM, EFDC, ELCIRC, FVCOM, MECCA, POM, ROMS, SELFE NOS selected ROMS and FVCOM as the core ocean models COMF is a set of standards and common tools to develop and operate NOS OFS. It is standardized for any model and any location

8. REAL-TIME DATA INGEST QA/QC (COMF) OPERATIONAL MODELS (COMF) on CCS FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE (water level, water temp, currents, & salinity) PRODUCTS (web pages and digital pt. & gridded data) FOR USERS tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov QA/QC (CORMS) 24 x 7 NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF) Individual Model systems Data Tank on CCS: Atmospheric ForcingAtmospheric Forcing Coastal Boundary ConditionsCoastal Boundary Conditions Riverine Fresh Water InputsRiverine Fresh Water Inputs Products and archives Linux Server in CO-OPS

9. NOS Operational Forecast System Evaluation (Model Skill Assessment)  Objective - Measure the performance of model simulations (including tidal simulation, hindcast, nowcast, and forecast) by comparing with observations - All models should be assessed and pass the NOS skill assessment standards before transferring to operation  Functions –Data acquisition and process (observations and model outputs) Time interval conversion and Gap-filling Concatenation of model outputs Filtering Tidal harmonic analysis and prediction Extracting extremes/events and slack waters –Compute statistical variables –Generate skill assessment score tables –Harmonic constants comparison

10. Continuous Operational Real-Time Monitoring System (CORMS) CORMS is the primary system to perform 24 x 7 real-time QA/QC on all real-time data, systems, and products in the CO-OPS domain

11. World-Class Supercomputing AT NCEP IBM Power6 p575 –69.7 Teraflops Linpack #36 Top 500 Nov 2008 –156 Power6 32-way Nodes –4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz –19,712 gigabytes memory –170 terabytes of disk space –100 terabyte tape archive –Two identical systems locate in different locations. One is production, the other is backup. –NOAA’s atmosphere operational forecast systems (e.g. NAM, GFS, etc) –NOAA’s ocean forecast systems (e.g. RTOFS, HYCOM, GLOFS, CBOFS, DBOFS, TBOFS, etc.)

12. Server “ofsprod” at CO-OPS sftp access model outputs on CCS Produce graphic products. Produce NOS OFS web pages on CO-OPS web. Archive Operational Products (NAS) NCEP Central Computer System (CCS – IBM Super Computer ) All NOS OFS NWS Web Operations Center (WOC) and Distributed Brokered Networking (DBNet) http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov THREDDS Data server Opendap / webservices NOS OFS PRODUCT FLOW CHART Sftp using secure key Real-Time Observations Model reanalysis and forecast products Forcing Data on CCS CORMS Public

13. NOS OFS Nowcast/Forecast Schedule 6 hour nowcast 2-3 day Forecast 06z (now) 00z 18z 12z

14. NOS OFS Forcing OBCSurface ForcingRiver Forcing Nowcast Tides from ADCIRC Subtidal WL from ETSS adjusted by real-time observed SWL T & S from NCOM adjusted by real-time observations RTMA NAM and GFS as backup USGS Real-time river observations (discharges, T, S) Climatologic daily mean as backup Forecast Tides from ADCIRC +Subtidal WL from ETSS T & S from NCOM NAM GFS as backup NWS river forecast Products Or Persistence from previous nowcast cycle

15. Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) 4 cycles per day 48 hours forecasts of Water levels, current, T & S Dimensions: 291 x 332 x 20 Res. 50 m – 5 km Bathymetry from NOS sounding

16. Delaware Bay Operational Forecast System (DBOFS) 4 cycles per day 48 hours forecasts of Water levels, current, T & S Dimensions: 119 x 732 x 10 Res. 100 m – 3 km Bathymetry from NOS sounding

17. Tampa Bay Operational Forecast System (TBOFS) 48-hour forecasts of Water levels, current, T & S (4 cycles per day) Dimensions: 176 x 290 x 11 Res. 100 m – 1.2 km Bathymetry from NOS sounding

18. Water Level forecasts at CBBT and Kiptopeke from CBOFS

19. Synoptic Hindcast : water level validation Observations from NOS/CO-OPS monitoring stations

20. Synoptic Hindcast : currents validation Observations from NOS/CO-OPS/CMIST monitoring stations

21. Synoptic Hindcast : T error summary Left panel show RMSE and Right panel show mean error Look at surface, 15-feet (4.6m) and bottom Surface, 15-feet similar & largest errors at bottom Horizontally, errors mainly along axis of the Bay Most mean errors in [-1 o C, +1 o C] range and RMSE in [0 o C, 2 o C] CBOFS2 excessively cool at surface and excessively warm at bottom

22. Synoptic Hindcast : S error summary Left panel show RMSE error and Right panel show mean error Look at surface, 15-feet (4.6m) and bottom Surface, 15-feet similar & largest errors at bottom Horizontally, errors mainly along axis of the Bay Most mean errors in [-2, +3 ] range and RMSE in [0, 4 ] in PSU CBOFS2 excessively salty at surface and excessively fresh at bottom

23. Water Level time series from TBOFS.

24. Current time series at Sunshine Skyway Bridge and Old Port Tampa from TBOFS.

25. Challenges and Wish List Reliable and stable operational version of ROMS (community model). Reliability > 99% Perfect Restart Wetting and Drying (test in Cook Inlet) Data Assimilation (e.g. for shelf model) Composite grids and grid refinement (shelf model + Estuary model) Coupling with Wave, Ecological and biological modules (hydrodynamic + eco.) Better vertical mixing scheme in coastal shallow waters (vertical stratification) Future Collaborations with ROMS Community in transitioning research to operation.

26. Thanks !! Questions ?

27. Data Resources used for NOS OFS CCS – NCEP Central Computer System CORMS – Continuous Operational Real-Time Monitoring System COMF – Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework NAM – North American Mesoscale model GFS – Global Forecast System RTMA – Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis RUC – Rapid Update Cycle NDFD – National Digital Forecsat Database ETSS – Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Model NCOM – Navy Coastal Ocean Model ADCIRC – ADvanced CIRculation model RTOFS – Real-Time Ocean Forecast System WOA – World Ocean Atlas ROMS – Regional Ocean Modeling System Real-Time Observations Water Levels, River Flow Temperature, Salinity Meteorological variables Model reanalysis and forecast products NAM, GFS, RTMA, RUC, NDFD ETSS, NCOM, RTOFS ADCIRC tide constituents WOA Data tank on CCS