2. WWRF - London, June 2002 1 Mobile Research: Personal Perspectives on Vision & an Industry Context Dr Walter Tuttlebee The Virtual Centre of Excellence in Mobile & Personal Communications - Mobile VCE - www.mobilevce.com

3. WWRF - London, June 2002 2 Introduction

4. 3 Mobile VCE  Mobile VCE is a not-for-profit company established in 1996 by the mobile communications industry to facilitate  highly cost-effective  industry-led  long-term research in all aspects of mobile & personal communications  Mobile VCE’s research is…  Defined by our industrial members, supported by our academic members’ new technical concepts & ideas  Steered by our Industrial Steering Groups (member companies) who have free access to resulting patents  Funded by our industrial members’ annual subscriptions and competitively-won Government funding, which results in very high financial gearing

5. WWRF - London, June 2002 4 A Unique Company for a Unique Industry - Long Term research steered by the Industry -

6. WWRF - London, June 2002 5   Research Vision in Mobile VCE   The Influence of Vision   The Process and the Mobile VCE Vision   Industry Context   Recent Industry Developments   Business Issues   Services & Applications   Technologies   Concluding Remarks   A Lesson from History ? Talk Structure

7. WWRF - London, June 2002 6 Vision

8. 7   A Personal Story   1988 – A presentation to the Directors… What you do and where you go is conditioned by your Vision… 1 Billion: 1st half 2002 Cellular subs (m))   Action is influenced by Vision…

9. WWRF - London, June 2002 8 Mobile VCE Vision Process  Future Mobile Vision  Scenario 2010 – a vision created in 1997/1998  Used to define the structure of our Core 2 research programme  Resulted in the identification of key enablers and the definition of three key technical research streams  Wireless Access  Networks & Services  Software Based Systems  Presented to the WSI ~2 years ago – but still valid…  Vision Group  A small group of (mainly) industry players  Restructured in 2002 to review and maintain the Vision  Provides a ‘Vision Umbrella’ for all our research  Monitors activities of, and seeks to link with, other similar external future vision groups across the globe

10. WWRF - London, June 2002 9 Vision 2010 – the 5 Elements

11. WWRF - London, June 2002 10 Vision 2010 Elements (1) Fully converged services Personal communications, information systems, broadcast and entertainment will have merged into a seamless pool of content available according to the user's requirement. The user will have access to a wider range of services and applications, available conveniently, securely and in a manner reflecting the user's personal preferences. Ubiquitous mobile access The dominant mode of access to this pool of content will be mobile, accounting for all voice communications, the majority of high-speed information services, and a significant proportion of broadcast and entertainment. Mobile access to commercial and retail services will be the norm, replacing current practices in most cases. Diverse user devices The user will be served by a wide variety of low-cost mobile devices to access content conveniently and seamlessly. These devices will commonly be wearable - in some cases disposable - and will normally be powered independently of the mains. Devices will interact with users in a multi-sensory manner, encompassing not only speech, hearing and sight, but also the other human senses, biological and environmental data pertinent to the application. Special devices tailored for people with disabilities will be commonplace.

12. WWRF - London, June 2002 11 Autonomous networks Underlying these systems will be highly autonomous adaptive networks capable of self-management of their structure to meet users' changing and evolving demands, for both services and capacity. Efficient and cost-effective use of the radio spectrum will be an essential element of their operation, and here too autonomy and self-management will be the norm. Software dependency Intelligent Mobile Agents will exist throughout the networks and in user devices, acting continually to simplify tasks and ensure transparency to the user. These Mobile Agents will act at all levels, from managing an individual user's content preferences, to organising and reconfiguring major elements of networks. Vision 2010 Elements (2) Note: The above summarises the 1998 vision statement, most of which remains intact, but has been extended…

13. WWRF - London, June 2002 12 Industry Status & Drivers

14. WWRF - London, June 2002 13 Recent Industry Developments  Telecom Industry Stocks…  Stock Market made an analogue-digital transition, with mobile going from ‘superhype’ to ‘dotcom disaster’ status  ‘Beyond 3G’ is out of fashion in Europe (but not in Asia)  Pragmatic Realities of 3G  3G technology must be seen to work  Services & applications must be identified & introduced that customers are seen to like  Operators must generate new revenue / increase ARPU  ‘Adjacent’ Markets & Technologies  PANs & WLANs – hotspot access ?  Digital broadcast – DAB, DTT – wideband delivery ?  Threats or opportunities ?

15. WWRF - London, June 2002 14 Recent Industry Developments  First 3G network launches  Japan – October 2001 – DoCoMo  Technology is becoming proven, arguably less hassle than GSM introduction  Korea – IMT-2000 stalls selling phones on the streets  Europe – December – Monaco, Isle of Man  Small single-mode 3G networks, service trials and testbeds  Interest in Future (R)Evolution is growing in Asia  WWRF launched in Europe, global involvement growing  Significant interest in ‘4G’ in Asia  Japan - DoCoMo 4G testbed being built  Korea - MIC $100m investment announced Feb 2002  Philosophically, ‘4G’ is NOT mobile phones

16. WWRF - London, June 2002 15   Near term - M-commerce   Requires new cross-industry partnerships   and ‘Out of the box’ thinking   The big opportunity for mobile is …   to facilitate micropayment transactions   to facilitate other ‘business spaces’ and   to create entirely new ones   Degree of Openness ?   Open Platforms, Content, Applications, Protocols ?   Revenue Sharing   Only way to multiply content & services   Longer Term Strategic Shifts   Relative Shifts of Power within the Value Chain   Opportunities to Enable other Industries Business Drivers

17. WWRF - London, June 2002 16   Personal ‘Active’ Services   The Killer Application is …   A multiplicity of mass-customised applications   Productivity, Entertainment, Work/Life Balance   Personal ‘Passive’ Services   Passive management of services and environment, based on learned personal preferences   ‘Personal’ environment – home, car & office   ‘External’ environment – plazas, shared places, virtual locations offered through the TV / Internet   Require a dynamically interlinked electronic environment   Personal devices & possessions   Shared devices & environment Services & Applications

18. WWRF - London, June 2002 17 Technologies (1)  Higher data rate air interfaces  How high is high enough ?  100 Mb/s – is it 4G’s equivalent of the 3G 2 Mb/s dream ?  Access technologies and enhancements needed  MIMO, VAA, relaying, narrowbeam terminals, efficiency metrics, etc  Self-managing & Ad hoc networks  WLANs & PANs  Development timescales & practical performance limitations ?  New commercial opportunities for mobile operators  Robust & secure dynamic management  Reconfigurable devices – possible drivers  At the lower protocol layers  5 GHz WLAN  Handheld video codec evolution & capacity management  At the higher protocol layers  ‘Passive’ and ‘Adaptive’ applications  Peer-to-peer services – next step from MMS ?  Operator desires for customer-isation (churn reduction)

19. WWRF - London, June 2002 18 Technologies (2)  Network dimensioning  Tools, traffic mixes, unknown applications  Delivery of end-to-end QoS  The ability to sell differentiated QoS services offers to open up new revenue streams  “All-IP” (v6 ?)  Circuit switched → IP(v4) → IPv6  “All major infrastructure projects take longer than planned”  The current climate does not aid the transition timescales in Europe, but cf initiatives in Asia (eg e-Japan)  Openness - reconfigurable services, networks & protocols  Potentially a key service (hence revenue) enabler  Security mechanisms – robust, yet in an open environment  Distributed management – in an inter-networked world  Agents – real time transparent service negotiation

20. WWRF - London, June 2002 19 Timing & Direction  Research is not what it used to be…  The industry needs some ‘short term wins’…  BUT … it still cannot afford to ignore the need for the long- term research  Long term research must take into account the immediate needs and the evolution paths that are emerging  This implies a need for industrial involvement with academic research, such as seen in WWRF, shaping the 6FP research agenda, and Mobile VCE, undertaking research

21. WWRF - London, June 2002 20 Concluding Remarks

22. WWRF - London, June 2002 21   Identify & question hidden assumptions underlying the Vision… 1987: UMTS Vision “One terminal to do everything : cellular, cordless, paging, PMR, etc” Minimal penetration of mobile phones Service concept: primarily voice Concluding Remarks Several visions, still emerging Minimal penetration of m-commerce Service concept: primarily ‘active’ Primarily ‘phones’ 2002: Beyond 3G Vision

23. WWRF - London, June 2002 22   Mobile VCE - past   Though based in the UK, NOT a national programme   A global industry member base   Directing our research and using our results   A UK academic research base,strong expertise   Increasing contributions on the international scene   Mobile VCE - future   Establishing more global linkages   Exploring opportunity for non-UK academic excellence   6FP – submitted Expressions of Interest   A true International Network of Excellence   Concepts and Technologies for Integrated Projects   Eg Virtual Antenna Arrays, SDR Reconfiguration   Other development initiatives being explored Concluding Remarks

24. WWRF - London, June 2002 23  Action stems from Vision…  Vision - If you are involved in similar vision-creation activities, the Mobile VCE Vision Group would like to establish linkages – please make contact  Use our Research Results - If you work for one of our member companies you are already entitled to access our detailed research reports, results & tools  If you work for a company interested in joining the Virtual Centre of Excellence, please see  Myself (today)  Nigel Jefferies of Vodafone  www.mobilevce.com www.mobilevce.com  Or e-mail walter.tuttlebee@mobilevce.com walter.tuttlebee@mobilevce.com Concluding Remarks