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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 Philip R Wood, QC (Hon) Head of Allen & Overy Global Law Intelligence Unit Predictions for the future of law and lawyers Visiting Professor in International Financial Law, University of Oxford Yorke Distinguished Visiting Fellow, University of Cambridge Visiting Professor, Queen Mary College, University of London Visiting Professor, London School of Economics & Political Science April 2011
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 2 2 Leaders BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 3 3 GDP per capita BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 4 4 GDP FOOTBALL FIELDS ($10 trillion) US U 2010 S U 2030 S (17) CHI EU USEU USEU (15) CHI JAPAN + Tigers THE REST EU EU CHINA INDIA (10) JAPAN + Tigers CHINA JAPAN & ASIA (19) JAPAN & ASIA INDIA LATIN AMERICA (6) THEREST JAPAN & ASIA JAPAN & ASIA THEREST (6)NA (23)NA 1995 BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 5 5 Growth of law: tentative chart 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 500 BC 0500 AD 1000150018002000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Tipping Point 1830s: World population:1 bn (now 6.4 bn) World GDP$700 bn (now $50 tn) Great Divide Triple polarization BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 6 6 Growth of law: tentative chart 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 500 BC 0500 AD 100015001800 2000 Tipping Point 1830s: World population: World GDP Great Divide Triple polarization 1 bn (now 6.4 bn) $700 bn (now $50 tn) Pop. scale: 1 = 0.5 bn GDP scale: 0.2 = $1 bn Population GDP
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 7 7 Bank insolvencies 1980-2002
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 8 8 Financial regulatory regimes BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 9 State insolvency 1980-2005
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 10 Impact of the financial crisis - 1 –1,000 measures –Restrictions on bank business –Capital, liquidity –Securitisations –Derivatives –Accounting –Hedge fund and private equity –Deposit protection –Taxes and special levies –Shorting and shareholding disclosure
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 11 Impact of the financial crisis - 2 –Securities settlement and payment systems –Regulators –Bank insolvencies –Corporate insolvencies –State insolvency –Super-priority creditors: the big three risk mitigants –Consumer protection –Litigation –Other –Overall assessment
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 12 BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 13 [ ] BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 14 Map: Key map of jurisdictions
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 15 Global jurisdictions BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 16 Major changes to insolvency legislation 1997-2007
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 17 Major changes to company law 2000-2009
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 18 1975 - World Financial Law: Five key indicators
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 19 2010 - World Financial Law: Five key indicators
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 20 Million:1,000,000 Billion:1,000,000,000 Trillion:1,000,000,000,000
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 21
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 22
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 23
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 24
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 25 Contract law
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 26 Paris Industrial Property Convention 1883
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 27 Map: New York Arbitration Convention of 1958
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 28 Map: Free choice of law for business contracts
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 29 Map: Hague Trust Recognition Convention 1986
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 30 Map: International insolvency treaties
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 31 Map: English common law jurisdictions
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 32 Supermap: Global security interests
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 33 Map: Napoleonic jurisdictions
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 34 Map: Insolvency set-off
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 35 Map: Roman-Germanic jurisdictions
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 36 Supermap: The trust
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 37 Map: Mixed civil/common law jurisdictions
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 38 Map: Islamic jurisdictions
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 39 Map: New and unallocated jurisdictions
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 40 Map: American common law jurisdictions
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 41 Map: Corporate insolvency rescue statutes
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 42 Corporate insolvency rescue statutes
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 43 Experts in their field
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 44 BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 45 BK-#16719881-v1-Predictions_-_Tue_5_April_211.PPT
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© Allen & Overy LLP 2010 46
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