1. Use of Satellite Scatterometer-Wind & Altimeter-Wave Observations for Operational Forecasting in Southern Hemisphere GMDSS MetAreas
Stan Wilson
NOAA Satellite & Information Service
On behalf of the CEOS OSVW & OST Constellations
JCOMM-III, Marrakech, 9 November 2009

2. Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC
NASA’s QuikSCAT has given us an increased awareness of the pervasiveness of extra-tropical Hurricane Force Winds
kts
NASA’s QuikSCAT has given us a remarkable capability to observe the surface vector wind field over the oceans.
QuikSCAT enables us to observe the surface vector wind field through clouds such as shown here.
It has led to the discovery that hurricane-force winds (greater than 64 knots) are a frequent occurrence in extra-tropical winter storms in the North Atlantic and Pacific.
Intense, non-tropical cyclone
with hurricane-force winds
Feb 23, 2008, North Pacific
Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

3. Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC
Hurricane-Force Extratropical Cyclones Trend in Detections & Warnings using QuikSCAT
Improved Wind
Algorithm and
Rain Flag Oct 06
WARNING
CATEGORIES
Pre-Q’SCAT
1. GALE kt
2. STORM >48
Q’SCAT ERA
2. STORM kt
3. HURCN FORCE
> 64 kt
12.5 km QuikSCAT
Available May 04
25 km QuikSCAT
Available in N-AWIPS
Oct 01
Hurricane Force
Wind Warning
Initiated Dec 00
The observations that led to this discovery were enabled by a combination of factors – increasing the spatial resolution of the surface wind observations, improvements in the algorithms (to better understand what was rain and what was wind speed), and increased familiarity on the part of operational forecasters in using the data.
This discovery was made by operational forecasters.
244
235
QuikSCAT
Launch
Jun 99
Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC 3

4. Hurricane-Force Winds in Extratropical Storms – 2001-2008
Much more frequent than thought
Detection linked to algorithm & resolution improvements and forecaster experience
Can predict where and when they will occur with appreciable skill at 48 hrs…but limited at 96 hrs
Intensity forecast skill still underestimates development rates for most intense storms and will under predict their winds
Maximum strength of winds is still unknown
Here is an assessment of our current capability.
Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

5. with hurricane force winds for the years 2001 - 2008
Major Shipping Routes
North Pacific
6,000/yr container
1,500/yr bulk transits \
The geographic distribution of all cyclone centers that contained hurricane force conditions for the north Pacific basin.
Note the shipping lanes that pass through the regions of frequent HF-force winds. If you are a mariner, you would be concerned about these winds.
Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensity
Sep-May
7-yr annual average number of extratropical cyclones observed (contoured)
with hurricane force winds for the years
Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

6. with hurricane force winds for the years 2001 - 2008
Major Shipping Routes
North Atlantic
4,000/yr container
1,000/yr bulk transits
The geographic distribution of all cyclone centers that contained hurricane force conditions for the north Atlantic basin..
Geographic distribution of cyclones with winds of HF intensity
Sep-May
7 yr annual average number of extratropical cyclones observed (contoured)
with hurricane force winds for the years
Courtesy of Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS/OPC

7. Along-track Wave Number Spectra
QuikSCAT
Thick Solid
Line
1000 km
NCEP
Thin Solid
Line
As noted in the caption, surface wind fields are poorly resolved in NCEP & ECMWF surface analyses over the open ocean on all scales ≤ ~1000 km, even though both assimilate QuikSCAT.
In the figure above, if these analyses (which are used as input to NWP models) cannot resolve the significant spatial variability at these small scales – especially the HF-force winds shown in dark red in the figure as observed by QuikSCAT – how can we depend on NWP to produce accurate forecasts of such HF-force winds?
ECMWF
Thin Dashed
Line
Surface wind fields are poorly resolved in NCEP & ECMWF surface analyses over the open ocean on all scales ≤ ~1000 km, even though both assimilate QuikSCAT.
From Chelton et al. , 2006, Mon. Wea. Review

8. Scatterometers Scatterometers in Orbit
U.S. (NASA) QuikSCAT – nearing end of life (≤ 6 mos)
EUMETSAT MetOp/ASCAT – continuing, operational
With QuikSCAT now in its 11th year of operation, there is increased friction in its antenna bearing and end of life is likely within the coming 6 months.
EUMETSAT has the C-band ASCAT flying and it will continue on the MetOp satellites. This is a true operational capability.

9. Observations of Hurricane Force Winds Oct 2007 – Aug 2008
195
168
Here is an analysis of the ability of various techniques to detect HF-force winds – QuikSCAT 25- and 50-km resolutions, ASCAT, GFS = NCEP’s Global Forecast System, ECMWF and actual observations (from ships and buoys).
ASCAT tends to under-report higher wind speeds, so in this comparison its missed most HF events..
The loss of QuikSCAT will have a significant impact to accurately detect and forecast such HF-force winds. 38 2 15 4
Courtesy of Khalil Ahmad, NOAA/NWS/OPC

10. QuikSCAT + ASCAT Combined Coverage (low-moderate winds)
With the availability of ASCAT, work has been underway to compare its data with those from QuikSCAT. At low wind speeds, there is good general agreement as shown in this overlay of swaths from each sensor.

11. QuikSCAT + ASCAT Combined Coverage (high winds)
But at higher wind speeds, ASCAT are significantly lower than those observed by QuikSCAT.
On the other hand, QuikSCAT is more sensitive to rain than ASCAT, so rain can interfere in QuikSCAT’s ability to accurately observe high wind speeds.
The current challenge is to reconcile differences between the C-band observations of ASCAT and those from the Ku-band of QuikSCAT, so that a non-specialist can use both sets of observations together to extend observational coverage.

12. Scatterometers Scatterometers in Orbit
U.S. (NASA) QuikSCAT – nearing end of life (≤ 6 mos)
EUMETSAT MetOp/ASCAT – continuing, operational
India (ISRO) Oceansat-2 – just launched
The Indian Space research Organization’s Oceansat-2 was launched on September 23. Like QuikSCAT it has a Ku-band scatterometer. The next two slides show some global observations collected by its scatterometer – first ascending, then descending passes.
I think the availability of these observations within three weeks of launch is a very good sign of success.

13. Launched
Sept 23
Day 285
~ Oct 12
If you flip back and forth between this and the next –the ascending and descending passes – you will see many consistencies but also a couple of very subtle differences.
Note that the storm south east of South Africa is not quite hurricane force,

14. Launched
Sept 23
Day 285
~ Oct 12

15. Scatterometers Scatterometers in Orbit Scatterometers in Development
U.S. (NASA) QuikSCAT – nearing end of life (≤ 6 mos)
EUMETSAT MetOp/ASCAT – continuing, operational
India (ISRO) Oceansat-2 – just launched
Scatterometers in Development
China (SOA) HY-2 series – early 2011
Russia (Roshydromet/Roscosmos) Meteor-M#3 – 2012
China (SOA)/France (CNES) – CFOSat – 2013/14
The Chinese State Oceanic Administration has the next scatterometer (Ku-band) on its HY-2 series. We have been challenged to engage SOA in discussions regarding timely data access.
We just hear that Russia is planning a scatterometer on it Meteor-M#3 satellite. Ask any Russians that may be present for more information on these plans; I need a contact so I can pursue the issue of timely data access.
A joint Chinese/French satellite will have a Ku-band scatterometer as well..
You could challenge the Indian, Chinese and Russian attendees to help ensure that their country’s scatterometer data are available in a timely manner for operational use..

16. Mean Revisit Time versus Latitude and Combinations of Scatterometers
6-Hour
Revisit
After the end of life for QuikSCAT, this shows as a function of latitude the mean revisit time for ASCAT alone, then ASCAT and Oceansat-2 or HY-2, and finally the three together. (Note that Quikscat, HY-2 and Oceansat-2 each have comparable swath coverage.)
With these three scatterometers flying simultaneously – with timely data sharing –,we will approach the ideal 6-hourly synoptic coverage that meteorologists desire for forecasting.

17. Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)
Planning the space arm of Global Earth Observation System of Systems
Has 29 space agency & 19 associate members
Introduced the concept of Virtual Constellations
Timely access to data for the public good
Inter-calibration between missions
Common data products and formats
Operational utilization of data products
Development of improved products
Harmonize orbits to optimize coverage
Serve as focus for GCOS Essential Climate Variables
We would now like to introduce the CEOS concept of Virtual Constellations. We will use data from two of those Constellations – Ocean Surface Vector Winds and Ocean Surface Topography.
With ASCAT data being compared with QuikSCAT, and now with the recent launch of Oceansat-2, there should be some appreciation of the objectives listed above.
The Constellation serves as a organizational vehicle to address these objectives. It is a voluntary group, doing things by consensus, and relying on good will to get things done.

18. WMO Executive Council June 2008
Requested that efforts be made…to ensure that… ocean surface meteorological observations be routinely collected and disseminated via the GTS…
Requested…participation of space agencies in that scheme.
Recognized that severe coastal inundation events from extreme sea state conditions occurred in many parts of the world…where coastal and ocean surface meteorological observations were…limited or absent.
Requested JCOMM...to address this issue as a matter of priority.
The WMO has recognized the paucity of surface meteorological observations over the oceans , and is encouraging their routine collection where possible and dissemination via the GTS.
The WMO also recognizes that the space agencies are not doing their part, especially given the focus on developing new and better tools and techniques, and especially looking after the needs of developing countries
The WMO recognizes in addition extreme sea state conditions occur in many parts of the world where ocean surface met observations are limited or absent.
The WMO quite rightly requests JCOMM to address this issue as a matter of priority.

19. Approach
Two of the most easily understood products relating to the ocean surface derived from satellite observations are:
Surface Vector Winds (SVW) from scatterometers
Significant Wave Height (SWH) from altimeters
Two of the most important products required by a marine forecaster for a surface analysis are:
SVW – wind speed and direction
SWH – or sea state
Therefore, when engaging with users, include consideration of SWH along with SVW
I think it is important to take one step at a time, starting with the simplest . If you can’t do the simplest, then taking on added complexity will fail.
There is synergy between the wind and wave observations. You need the winds as input for forecasting the waves and to evaluate that forecast after the fact.
If anyone asks about why we aren’t concerned with directional wave forecasts, I would say that we have to demonstrate that forecasters in the developing world first need to be able to forecast SWH. If they can demonstrate that, then we can move on – but not before.

20. Altimeters Altimeters in Orbit Altimeters in Development
France (CNES)/U.S. (NASA) Jason-1 & Jason-2
Europe (ESA) ENVISAT
Altimeters in Development
Europe (ESA) Cryosat-2 – early 2010
India (ISRO)/France (CNES) SARAL – 2010
China (SOA) HY-2 – early 2011
Europe (ESA) Sentinel-3A – 2013 – 1st of two
Europe (EUMETSAT)/U.S. (NOAA) Jason-3 – 2013
U.S. (Navy) GFO-2 – 2013
I wouldn’t go into the altimeter situation in any detail, other than to say that there are three altimeters flying now, and that prospects for similar or better coverage in the coming few years looks good. So there should be a good continuing source of SWH observations.

21. User Community Engagement
Promote the use of scatterometer-derived SVW and altimeter-derived SWH in operational marine forecasts world-wide for the protection of life and property at sea
Focus initially on GMDSS MetAreas in the Southern Hemisphere
Assess whether responsible forecast centers have timely access to, and routinely use, SVW and SWH
Depending on what is learned, proceed accordingly…
It seems to me that GMDSS MetAreas are a priority, and especially in the Southern Hemisphere where 80% of the surface is ocean (vice the 60% for the N. Hemi.) And focusing on the developing countries ought to be a priority; they are not closely connected to the space program and do not automatically know where to go to get information that they may not know that they need.

22. Global Maritime Distress and Safety System

23. GMDSS Met Area Responsibility
High-Seas
Operational
Forecast
Responsibility
Data routinely used in operational forecasts?
If so, how are they accessed?
Surface Vector Winds
Significant Wave Height
QuikSCAT
(to go on GTS)
ASCAT
Jason-1 & Jason-2
ENIVSAT V
Marine Meteorological Service, Brazilian Navy
Yes
FTP No –
National Institute for Space, Brazil VI
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Argentina
Some
VII
South African
Weather Service
VIII-S
Mauritius Meteorological Service X
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
GTS
XIV-N
Fiji Met Service
XIV-S
Met Service of New Zealand XV
Servicio Meteorológico de la Armada, Chile
I believe that this is self explanatory.
A note about Brazil: SMN (the Navy) has the operational responsibility for the MetArea assigned to Brazil per the WMO, yet INPE also does operational forecasting (and may be doing a better job).

24. Comments on Some Present High Seas Forecasting
Operational centers in these countries base their high seas forecasts on model output as follows:
Chile – uses FNMOC
Argentina – uses NCEP or ECMWF
South Africa – uses UK Met Office
But recall that present operational analyses do not capture the spatial variability of the wind field ≤1000 k and they significantly under-report the speed of hurricane-force winds
If the models cannot resolve HF-force winds, how can an operational service depend on such models for its own forecasting – especially when satellite observations offer a means to see what is happening for yourself.

25. Unaware of the capabilities 5 different satellites
We have been observing SVW and SWH for well over a decade… Why such low operational use?
Unaware of the capabilities 5 different satellites
Unable to access the GTS
Unable to decode BUFR files on GTS & each is different
Must sort through files on the GTS that have little correspondence to areas of interest
Must write a proposal to get ftp access
Must go to 5 different ftp sites, each with different format
Don’t know when products become available on each
Difficult to integrate OSVW & SWH products into analyses
Forecasters don’t know how to use the products
We have been observing SVW and SWH for well over a decade…and the low operational use is a reflection of our doing our own thing and not helping the less fortunate help themselves.

26. Issues for the Satellite Providers
Data policy to enable timely operational access
Each country needs to be willing to share data in a timely manner for the public good
If access is provided separately for each satellite
GTS – separate BUFR decoder for each
FTP – document procedures for each
Each new source requires a new linkage to all users
But if there were a single point of access – ‘one-stop shopping’ – for each variable
Only one set of procedures is needed for the user
A common operational product could be available in a single self-describing, hardware-independent format
Products could be packaged specific to each area of interest to offer a very low data rate
Each new source could be easily incorporated into service
The various reasons in the previous slide break down into two sets of activities – one involving the mainly the space agencies and the other the users. The space agencies need to address these, with input from the users certainly.
If anyone asks why we aren’t working with ESA’s GlobWave project, you can say that they data are not going to be available in a sufficiently timely manner to be of operational use; it is for all practical purposeds a research effort.

27. Issues for Users Initial Training Course Subsequent Courses
To develop an initial course based on direct and immediate feedback from operational users
To focus on accessing and using SVW and SWH in operational analyses and forecasts
To include – for each country – an operational forecaster and (where possible) a research user of SVW and SWH
Subsequent Courses
Once the curriculum has been tested in the initial course, to be given in the developing countries where student participation can be maximized
To be organized in close collaboration with JCOMM, WMO, IOC and the operational forecast services
To evolve in response to growing forecaster familiarity with operational use of SVW and SWH products
For the next such course, the University of Buenos Aires Meteorology Dept has offered to host the course and to do so between regular University school terms. They have plenty of classroom space with computers.
What we are lacking, though, is funding to pay for student travel. The IOC funding can only pay for travel to and classes in Oostend.

28. Use of Satellite Wind and Wave Products in Marine Forecasting
A initial training course focused on the use of scatterometer-derived surface vector winds and altimeter-derived significant wave heights in operational forecasting for the high seas
Co-led by NOAA & EUMETSAT in collaboration with and hosted by the IOC Project Office for IODE in Oostend, Belgium – December 14-18, 2009
For information on the course as it develops:
The IOC Project Office is to be commended for its financial support, ultimately provided by the Flanders Government. The latter finances the former to do training and capacity building at their facilities in Oostend. The IOC Project Office is paying for the travel for a dozen students and providing the classroom space with computers – all at no cost to us.

29. Instructors Europe – EUMETSAT Met. Operations………………..
User Services…………………….
France – MeteoFrance…………….
Netherlands – KNMI……………….
New Zealand Met. Service……….
Norway – MetNo……………………..
U.S.A. – NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center…...
Cen. Pacific Hurricane Ctr…
Satellite & Info. Service……..
U.S.A. – U. of New Hampshire….
Julia Figa
Henk Verschuur
Stefane Nirola
Ad Stoffelen
Mark Schwarz
Gunnar Noer
Joe Sienkiewicz
Rick Knabb
Paul Chang
Zorana Jelenak
Doug Vandemark
We have 11 instructors from a half-dozen operational agencies – almost as many as the 14 students. The challenge will be understanding student needs, assembling a curriculum, testing it and changing it as appropriate – basically learning as we go.

30. Students Argentina – SMN……………………. Argentina – UBA……………………..
Brazil – SMM…………………………..
Brazil – INPE…………………………..
Chile – SMA……………………………..
Chile – UdeC……………………………
Fiji Met Service……………………….
India Met. Dept……………………….
India Space Research Org………
Mauritius Met. Service……………
So. African Weather Service……
Deborah Souto
Martin Saraceno
Silvia Regina
Rosio Camayo
Gonzalo Espinosa
Luis Vidal
Andres Sepulveda
Amit Singh
A.K. Sharma
Raj Kumar
Ganessen Virasami
Mamad Beebeejaun
Carlton Fillis
Jacqueline Riet
For Argentina and Chile we have a research user of such satellite data participating alongside his country’s operational forecaster . This is an effort as helping assemble a research-to-operations transition capability that we hope will live on beyond the course.
For South Africa and Mauritius we asked for a researcher and a forecaster, since they said they had both.

31. Initial Performance Metrics – How will we measure success?
All Southern Hemisphere centers with responsibility for operational forecasts for GMDSS MetAreas will routinely utilize SVW from all current scatterometers and SWH from all current altimeters in marine analyses and forecasts – i.e., all boxes in the matrix will be colored green.
We will have failed if we cannot do this.
What we learn from students participating in our initial training course will to a large extent set the objectives and direction for the next step(s).