1. India's Energy Options and Strategies post Fukushima Anil Kakodkar

2. Energy Consumption Per Capita vs. Human Development Index Source: The Energy Challenge for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals, (UN-Energy, 2005)The Energy Challenge for Achieving the Millennium Development Goals, (UN-Energy, 2005) SOURCE: THE ENERGY CHALLENGE FOR ACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, (UN-ENERGY, 2005)THE ENERGY CHALLENGE FOR ACHIEVING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, (UN-ENERGY, 2005)

3. We need as much additional electricity as we produce today to provide a reasonable standard of living (~5000 kWh per capita) in the developing world India alone would need around 40% of present global electricity generation to be added to reach average 5000 kWh per capita electricity generation World OECD Non-OECD Population (billions) 6.7 1.18 5.52 Annual Electricity Generation 18.8 10.6 8.2 (trillion kWh) Carbon-di-oxide Emission 30 13 17 (billion tons/yr) Annual av. per capita ~2800 ~9000 ~1500 Electricity (kWh)

4. . Global average temperature over last one and a half century showing a more or less steady increase over the last fifty years or so. The fluctuations and their cycles can be correlated with various events like solar cycles We do not know how close we are to the tipping point. However we need to act now to secure survival of our future generations.

5. Current Indian Energy Resources (Ref: A Strategy for Growth of Electrical Energy in India, DAE, 2004; Coal data from Report of The Expert Committee on Road Map for Coal Sector Reforms) Years of depletion for electricity generation by single source Current rate (697 TWh) 130*4.12211>1950 2052 rate (7957 TWh) 11.5*0.3618.5>170 Total Solar collection area required (based on MNES estimate 20 MW/km 2 ) : At current rate- >>3900 sq. km At 2052 rate- >>44650 sq. km *: To be preferentially used in transport sector

6. TOTAL DEATHS; 62 (47 PLANT, 15 DUE TO THYROID CANCER ) ACUTE RADIATION SYNDROME; 134 (OUT OF WHICH 28 HAVE DIED) INCREASED CANCER INCIDENCE; AMONG RECOVERY WORKERS THYROID CANCER; ( CURABLE, WAS AVOIDABLE) 6000 ( 15 HAVE DIED) PROJECTED HEALTH CONSEQUENCES FROM VERY LOW DOSES TO LARGE SECTIONS OF POPULATIONS ARE QUESTIONABLE AN ESTIMATE IN 2006—93,000 WILL DIE DUE TO CANCER UP TO THE YEAR2056 ANOTHER ESTIMATE IN 2009---985,000 DIED TILL 2004 Chernobyl Consequences

7. Energy Source Death Rate (deaths per TWh) Coal world average 161 (26% of world energy, 50% of electricity) Coal China 278 Coal USA 15 Oil 36 (36% of world energy) Natural Gas 4 (21% of world energy) Biofuel/Biomass 12 Peat 12 Solar (rooftop) 0.44 (less than 0.1% of world energy) Wind 0.15 (less than 1% of world energy) Hydro 0.10 (europe death rate, 2.2% of world energy) Hydro - world including Banqiao) 1.4 (about 2500 TWh/yr and 171,000 Banqiao dead) Nuclear 0.04 (5.9% of world energy) http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/deaths-per-twh-by-energy- source.html

8. Comparative Seismic Hazard

9. Catastrophe syndrome Low quantitative risk is not a good enough criteria Maximum impact in public domain needs to be limited irrespective of the low probability Not withstanding Fukushima most countries are going ahrad with nuclear power ( USA, UK, France, Russia, China, Japan, Finland ---)

10. The Indian Advanced Heavy Water Reactor (AHWR), a quick, safe, secure and proliferation resistant solution for the energy hungry world AHWR is a 300 MWe vertical pressure tube type, boiling light water cooled and heavy water moderated reactor (An innovative configuration that can provide low risk nuclear energy using available technologies) AHWR can be configured to accept a range of fuel types including LEU, U-Pu, Th-Pu, LEU-Th and 233 U-Th in full core AHWR Fuel assembly Bottom Tie Plate Top Tie Plate Water Tube Displacer Rod Fuel Pin Major design objectives Significant fraction of Energy from Thorium Several passive features 3 days grace period No radiological impact Passive shutdown system to address insider threat scenarios. Design life of 100 years. Easily replaceable coolant channels.

11. 11 PSA Level 3 calculations for AHWR indicate practically no probability of impact in public domain Plant familiaisation & identification of design aspects important to severe accident PSA level-1 : Identification of significant events with large contribution to CDF Level-2 : Source Term (within Containment) Evaluation through Analysis Release from Containment Level-3 : Atmospheric Dispersion With Consequence Analysis Level-1, 2 & 3 PSA activity block diagram Variation of dose with frequency exceedence (Acceptable thyroid dose for a child is 500 mSv) Iso-Dose for thyroid -200% RIH + wired shutdown system unavailable (Wind condition in January on western Indian side) Contribution to CDF SWS: Service Water System APWS: Active Process Water System ECCS HDRBRK: ECCS Header Break LLOCA: Large Break LOCA MSLBOB: Main Steam Line Break Outside Containment SWS 63% SLOCA 15% 1 mSv0.1 Sv1.0 Sv10 Sv 10 -14 10 -13 10 -12 10 -11 10 -10

12. AHWR300-LEU provides a robust design against external as well as internal threats, including insider malevolent acts. This feature contributes to strong security of the reactor through implementation of technological solutions. Reactor Block Components AHWR 300-LEU is a simple 300 MWe system fuelled with LEU-Thorium fuel, has advanced passive safety features, high degree of operator forgiving characteristics, no adverse impact in public domain, high proliferation resistance and inherent security strength. Peak clad temperature hardly rises even in the extreme condition of complete station blackout and failure of primary and secondary systems.

13. STRONGER PROLIFERATION RESISTANCE WITH AHWR 300-LEU MUCH LOWER PLUTONIUM PRODUCTION Much Higher 238 Pu & Lower Fissile Plutonium Reduced Plutonium generation MODERN LWR AHWR300-LEU 238 Pu 239 Pu 240 Pu 242 Pu 241 Pu 238 Pu3.50% 239 Pu51.87% 240 Pu23.81% 241 Pu12.91% 242 Pu7.91% 238 Pu9.54% 239 Pu41.65% 240 Pu21.14% 241 Pu13.96% 242 Pu13.70% High 238 Pu fraction and low fissile content of Plutonium The French N4 PWR is considered as representative of a modern LWR.. The reactor has been referred from “Accelerator-driven Systems (ADS) and Fast Reactor (FR) in Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycles”, OECD (2002)

14. The composition of the fresh as well as the spent fuel of AHWR300-LEU makes the fuel cycle inherently proliferation resistant. MODERN LWR AHWR300-LEU 232 U0.00% 233 U0.00% 234 U0.00% 235 U0.82% 236 U0.59% 238 U98.59% 232 U0.02% 233 U6.51% 234 U1.24% 235 U1.62% 236 U3.27% 238 U87.35% 232 U 233 U 234 U 236 U 235 U 238 U Presence of 232 U in uranium from spent fuel Uranium in the spent fuel contains about 8% fissile isotopes, and hence is suitable to be reused in other reactors. Further, it is also possible to reuse the Plutonium from spent fuel in fast reactors.

15. AHWR300-LEU provides a better utilisation of natural uranium, as a result of a significant fraction of the energy is extracted by fission of 233 U, converted in-situ from the thorium fertile host. With high burn up possible today, LEU-Thorium fuel can lead to better/comparable utilisation of mined Uranium

16. Nuclear power with greater proliferation resistance Enrichment Plant LEU Thermal reactors Safe & Secure Reactors For ex. AHWR LEU Thorium fuel Reprocess Spent Fuel Fast Reactor Recycle Thorium Reactors For ex. Acc. Driven MSR Recycle Thorium Uranium MOX LEU- Thorium 233 U Thorium For growth in nuclear generation beyond thermal reactor potential Present deployment Of nuclear power

17. GREATER SHARE FOR NUCLEAR IN ELECTRICITY SUPPLY REPLACE FOSSIL HYDRO- CARBON IN A PROGRESSIVE MANNER RECYCLE CARBON- DIOXIDE DERIVE MOST OF PRIMARY ENERGY THROUGH SOLAR & NUCLEAR Sustainable development of energy sector Transition to Fossil Carbon Free Energy Cycle Fossil Energy Resources Nuclear Energy Resources Hydrogen ENERGY CARRIERS (In storage or transportation) Electricity Fluid fuels (hydro- carbons/ hydrogen) Biomass WASTE CO2 H2O Other oxides and products Nuclear Recycle Sustainable Waste Management Strategies CO 2 Sun Urgent need to reduce use of fossil carbon in a progressive manner chemical reactor CO2 CH 4 Fluid Hydro carbons Electricity Carbon/ Hydrocarbons Other recycle modes

18. Thank you

19. Strategies for long-term energy security Hydroelectric Non-conventional Coal domestic Hydrocarbon Nuclear (Domestic 3-stage programme) Projected requirement * * Ref: “A Strategy for Growth of Electrical Energy in India”, document 10, August 2004, DAE No imported reactor/fuel Deficit to be filled by fossil fuel / LWR imports LWR (Imported) FBR using spent fuel from LWR LWR import: 40 GWe Period: 2012-2020 Deficit 412 GWe Required coal import: 1.6 billion tonne * in 2050 * - Assuming 4200 kcal/kg Deficit 7 GWe The deficit is practically wiped out in 2050