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Published byBlake Newton Modified over 9 years ago
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Fragmentation, the Crisis and Asia L Alan Winters Chief Economist, Department for International Development, Professor of Economics, University of Sussex And Xinyi Li, University of East Anglia
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Page 2 Fragmentation Of production Vertical specialisation/integration A. Via trade data B. Via Input-Output data Has it worsened contagion/transmission? Of the world economy Trade policy
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Page 3 Trade Shock Huge fall since September 2008 Determinants of speed and depth Exports Monthly 180 countries (Direction of Trade) Only upto March 2009
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Page 4 Exports
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Page 5 Filter into trend and residual Hodrick-Prescott – high-pass filter Set λ = 129,600
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Page 8 Three concepts of ‘hit’ ‘First Hit’: first month after January 2007 with a negative residual exceeding two standard deviations; if none, ‘not yet’ ‘Most Severe Hit’: The largest shortfall of exports relative to the smoothed trend ‘Largest Hit’: The largest month-on- month fall of exports
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Page 9 First Hits
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Page 10 Vertical Specialisation Hummels et al share of foreign intermediates in export value Pitigala – trade data approximation Intermediate imports/exports Here intermediate imports/total imports Averaged over 1995-2008, 165 countries
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Page 11 First Hit Low VS – below median of sample (approx 43%) Early: 2008, late 2009 Jan-Mar; not yet – no residual < -2σ
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Page 12 First Hits in Asia Low VS: Solomon Islands Tonga, Vanuatu, Samoa, Mongolia, Fiji, Afghanistan, Maldives; High VS: Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, China, Malaysia, Philippines, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh
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Page 13 Average Depth of First Hit Residual of log(exports) from trend
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Page 14 VS – an Input Output Measure 9 Asian countries and USA, 2000 Flows by industry and country ΔX = (I-A) -1 ΔY (I-A) -1 = I + A + A 2 + A 3 + ΔX 1 = ΔY ΔX 2 = ΔY + AΔY = (I + A) ΔY ΔX 3 = ΔY + AΔY + AAΔY = (I + A + A 2 ) ΔY
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Page 15 Period 1 and 2 export losses, US shock
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Page 16 Cumulative VS scores
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Page 17 Export Losses vs. Cumulated VS
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Page 18 Examples of Measures
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Page 19 Measures Imposed
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Page 20 Measures Suffered
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Page 21 Thank you
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