1. Hydropolitics and geopolitics The Nile is the world’s longest river, 6,500kms, 2.9km2 catchment,10% of Africa, running through 10 countries with 360 million people depending on it for survival. Growing issues of desertification & salination and increased evaporation linked to climate change About 85 % water originates from Eritrea and Ethiopia, but 94 % is used by Sudan and Egypt. 1996 Helsinki Rules on the Uses of the Waters of International Rivers - regulating how transboundary rivers and groundwater are managed The Nile Basin is an example that ‘Water Wars’ may be averted History of hydropolitics in Nile Basin tensions due to the dominance of Egypt civil wars in Sudan Ethiopia tensions from Egypt’s treaties dating back to the 1929 and 1959 Nile Water Agreements. Upstream states increasingly challenging Egypt’s dominance. Ethiopia wants to use the Nile River for HEP plants and industrial development. Tech Fix ; The megaprojects of dams like Aswan are famous. Latest high tech is the 1990s project called ‘Tecconile’ a joint GIS system to help monitor and plan the basin Political negotiations centred on conflicts over the shared use of water sources Evidence of more effective co-operation The Nile Basin Initiative, system of cooperative management which started late 1990s All countries except Eritrea working with The World Bank and bi-lateral aid donors. Community level involvement. Managers visited Colorado River recently to see how effectively the 1922 River Water Compact and its ‘law of the river’ works

2. Water transfers- a quick fix? Receiving areaSource area

3. Video: China’s Parched North Water crisis (see map on next slide) What has led to some of China’s water scarcity problems? Examples of existing schemesProposed schemes International Lesotho to South Africa: Lesotho Highlands Water Project Turkey to Israel by tanker National: Snowy Mountains- Australia Melamchi Nepal Tagus-Mercia Spain International Turkey to Israel undersea pipelines Austrian Alps to Spain + Greece by pipeline National: South-North transfer- China Ebro -Spain Ob to the Aral Sea NAWAPA Alaska to California

4. Beijing Tianjin Eastern Route 1,155km long diversion Central routes 1267 km diversion. May have to use some water from 3 Gorges reservoir to help Western Routes Work starts 2010, at high altitude, very difficult 500kms at 3- 5000m above sea level Demand from industrial centres, high population density and intensive agriculture. Low rainfall and over abstracted groundwater: physical scarcity Externalities Industrial growth along routeways will exacerbate existing pollution problems Changes in water balances: reduced water in Yangtze means less dilution and more pollution Displaced people especially from Dang Jiang Kou dam...... Yellow River Yangtze River South China Sea CHINA Shanghai 0 mls 250 Mega Tech Fixes: China’s South–North water transfer Originally planned 1952, started 2002, due to finish 2050. Chief player: Government sponsored ‘South to North Water Transfer Project Company, with each province having a local water company. Involves huge civil engineering works, 3 major canals, pipelines, tunnels, pumping stations One of the largest water transfers globally. Aim: to divert 45bn m3/year from the water surplus river basins of the S and E to the water deficit areas of the North, especially Beijing and Tianjin

5. Water issues in the Middle East There are significant disputes over access to water already in this area The combination of a growing population and low seasonal rainfall are the main causes. Is the energy dependent technological fix of desalination the answer? Photo of a plant in Dubai In the Western Region: Israelis, Syrians, Jordanians and Lebanese are all in dispute over shrinking water supplies A contributory factor to the 1967 Arab- Israeli war Water storage is in 3 huge aquifers under the Israeli mountains and coastal strip and the R Jordan In the Northern region: Turkey is in dispute with Syria and Iraq over damming more of the Tigris and Euphrates river The Aral Sea, on the boundary of the Middle East and Asia is suffering from over abstraction and pollution

6. Water conflicts and the future 1.Water players 2.Responses to need to increasing water supply and the issues these strategies raise 3.The role of technology in water supply Business as usual The cost of water will increase Water consumption will increase resulting in declining stores Food transfers will mitigate shortage of water in areas where agriculture declines Water Crisis Demand will outstrip supply The proportion of the world’s population without access to clean water will increase Food insecurity and migration will increase Conflicts of water supplies (intra and inter state) become more likely Sustainable Water Agricultural and household water prices will double in the developed world and triple in the developing world Global water consumption will fall, although the gap between per capita use will close Green water flows will increase Improvements in water harvesting and farming techniques allow food yields to increase whilst water consumption declines From: 2002 International Food Policy and Research Institute future models What are the possible conflicts and solutions to increasing demands for water?

7. Video: NATO - Water or Warter?

8. Water Players and decision makers Different players have conflicting views on water insecurity One player may have quite complex views; most Governments will have departments wanting conservation as opposed to development You need to identify the ‘stakeholders’ in any particular case study, and then the role of the ‘gatekeepers’ who wield power. The next slide shows a classification of players Political: water is a human need International organisations e.g. UN Government Regional & local councils Lobbyists & pressure groups Economic International: World Bank & IMF TNCs and developers Businesses and users Environmental Conservationists Scientists & planners Social: water is a human right Individuals Residents Consumers land owners, health officials, NGOs like Water Aid Photograph of Aral Sea with grounded tanker

9. Classifying the water players PoliticalEconomicSocialEnvironmental Global World Bank funds megaprojects to improve supply. Has become more environmentally conscious. This group also has businesses and TNCs UN Millenium Development Goal called The Water Target:"Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation " World Health Organisation G8 Summits : 2002 Evian action Plan, focus on water, and 2009 L’Aquila summit increased aid to poorer countries to help MDGs, + highlighted need for more integrated management The role of NGOs such as Water Aid or GLOWS has been crucial in managing water supplies Countries such as India, have mounted successful massive community-led campaigns on things like elimination of open defecation Government Health Agencies from national to local scale WWF and Friends of the Earth campaign for full Environmental Impact Assessments of major projects likely to damage the environment This group will include many scientists and researchers At a local scale NIMBY groups will campaign National Government owned water companies, eg China TNCs (Viendi and Suez RWE which owns Thames Water, American Water Works Companies providing technological fixes Local Individual 6.9 billion consumers

11. Video: The Corporation: Chapter 18 Expansion Plan Privatization of Bolivian Water

12. Water Governance and Management

13. Responses: Management strategies Water conflicts can be managed in a range of different ways There is a spectrum of different management strategies Some are sustainable as they balance ecological and human needs Present policies Driven by short term economic + political concerns Often do not include science and effective technology Obstacles to sustainable management Climate change uncertainty and effects Natural variability of water Pressures caused by human activities and rapid growth of transition economies towards a consumerist society Increased water demands Gross inefficiencies in use Poor existing quality of supply across huge areas of world Funding Access to appropriate technology Future policies? Longer term? Need more research, information and monitoring especially on aquifers in developing countries More partnerships? More community involvement? More accountable? Strategies rely on technology?

14. Low tech solutions to water: a case study A solution? Basic technology and information is channelled through the NGO: GLOWS ( global water for sustainability project) a partnership between World Vision India and Florida International University. Methods: 1. Increasing simple low tech appropriate and intermediate solutions to increase storage: Increased rainwater harvesting Improved storage system at a family scale: Tanks: 3 m in diameter, 3-4 m deep, most below land level with a side opening to allow surface flow in. They store about 20,000litres, and once full provide water for a family until next monsoon. 2. Using colourful drama performed by trained locals to villagers to illustrate the advantages of working cooperatively with other families and villages to reduce desertification and pollution of ground water by since aquifers are shared-if an unseen resource! (see photograph) The problem: The River WAKAL area of Rajasthan in NW India is one of the driest and poorest areas in India. Subsistence agriculture dominates. 96% of rainfall is from the 3-4 month monsoon (late June through September.) and the traditional methods of using groundwater and conserving surface water are falling short of demands Water management often focuses on large scale, technologically advanced mega- projects These often have complex costs and benefits Water conservation and restoration of supply have a role Small scale, bottom- up schemes are likely to be important in the developing world However, unless duplicated on large scale may be ineffective for longer term economic growth

15. Hard and soft management How to meet the challenge of the need for more water? Traditional ‘hard’ engineering Dams; currently 845000 of which 5000 classed as megadams. The aim is to increase natural storage capacity by artificial reservoirs. Rivers most at risk at present: Yangtze, Amazon, Danube and many in the Himalayas Channels, seen in most arid/semi arid countries whatever their economic status, eg Jonglei Canal on Nile Pipelines eg Australia and California Aqueduct and snowy Mountains scheme Australia Desalination plants eg in Middle East Recharging schemes for depleted aquifers, eg North London Artificial recharge Scheme and Long Island New York Softer more environmentally and ethically responsible approaches Water conservation eg targeted drip irrigation on plants in Ethiopia, includes water harvesting Water restoration eg Northern Aral Sea, and on smaller scale river Colne in UK Integrated drainage basin management, especially if bottom up and community involved. The 4 Rs: ie an attitudinal fix: Reduce, Respect, Reuse, Renew..... Newer hard technologies Tankers to transport water eg Turkey to Israel Osmosis membranes filtering salt from brackish water eg Israel (the Ashkelon plant produces 15% of domestic demand). Also in California, Spain and China Fertigation: fertilser and water drip feeding of crops, as in Israel Specific Technologies seen as appropriate /intermediate with less negative externalities Water harvesting of grey water eg Belize Micro dams serving villages eg Nepal Water meters to reduce use eg UK Composting latrines – seen in National Trust properties in UK to Mumbai slums!

16. Cost of Equipment Desalinization Plant200 – 400 million euros (for the largest: Barcelona, Algiers, Oran…) Water Pumping and Transfer project over 750 km in Algerian Sahara Desert 1 billion euros Three Gorges Dam23-50 billion euros Itaipu Dam (Brazil/Paraguay)15-18 billion euros Nam Theun 2 Dam (Laos)1.03 billion euros

17. Water Conflicts Overview Water Resources Water Conflict Potential conflicts =high both local & international Resource use often exceeds recharge capacity leading to long term degradation Future is in doubt because of unsustainable use+ climate change Vulnerable populations most at risk Management strategies to ensure supply require cooperation of many different players = changes in way water is valued & used Therefore, there are alternative futures – It all depends on the decisions the players make.... and climate change, population trends, energy security, superpower politics, bridging the development gap etc… Water like energy is a fundamental need but not evenly distributed Factors influencing geography of supply: Physical-surface, groundwater, desalinisation Human: demand, management, mismanagement Increasing demand not matched by supply= WATER GAP Implications for human well being - which is why it is named in the MDGs Demand from various users Water resources are often transboundary Water Futures Water stress and scarcity are projected to increase because: Climate change will make some areas more arid and rainfall more unreliable Glacial water sources will reduce due to climate change Unsustainable use of some supplies will decrease their quality and quantity Demand will rise due to population and economic growth Water wars will lead to winners and losers in water supply