1. UCLA Climate Research Lounge

2. What Climate Change Means for Southern California: Results From the Climate Change in the Los Angeles Region Project Alex Hall December 3, 2013

4. Long Beach Downtown LA Santa Monica San Fernando Valley San Bernardino Palmdale Ventura

5. Downtown LA Santa Monica Glendale Burbank Culver City Hollywood Sherman Oaks Pasadena Inglewood Downey South Los Angeles

6. We applied ~30 global climate models to the Los Angeles region

7. BaselineMid-CenturyEnd-Century Business As Usual Mitigation 1880 1960200020402080 1400 1200 400 200 ppm Observed We projected future climate for 2 scenarios

8. Bakersfield Palm Springs San Diego Santa Barbara Los Angeles San Bernardino Average August Temperature 1981–2000 Temperature Average August Temperature 2041–2060: Business As Usual

9. Average August Temperature Temperature 90 85 80 1981–2000 75 2041–2060 Business As Usual At least 70% of Business-As-Usual warming is inevitable Mitigation

10. 2041–2060 Business As Usual 100 days > 1981–2000 60 days > Days Hotter Than 95 ⁰ F Per Year San Fernando Santa Monica Woodland Hills Baldwin Hills Downtown LA Studio City Long Beach Venice Watts Westwood Hollywood Porter Ranch Sunland El Sereno Pasadena Santa Ana Santa Clarita

11. Adaptation is inevitable. Water resources Fire SnowTemperatures Sea level rise Ecosystem effects But is it enough?

12. Average August temperature Temperature 90 85 80 1981–2000 75 2041–2060 Business As Usual Mitigation 2081–2100

13. California Climate Change Projections

14. For more on the Climate Change in LA Project:C-CHANGE.LA UCLA Climate Research Lounge

15. Thank You Department of Energy National Science Foundation Los Angeles Mayor’s Office Los Angeles Regional Collaborative Climate Resolve UCLA Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability Special Thanks to: Beth Jines Jonathan Parfrey Paul Bunje Madelyn Glickfeld Mark Gold Glen MacDonald Stephanie Pincetl

16. UCLA Climate Research Lounge Credits Presentation design, maps and illustrations by www.greeninfo.org Photography/Images: California Geological Survey Los Angeles Times Orange County Register Mark A. Johnson Accuweather.com IPCC Newser.com Associated Press/Huffington Post NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Xweather.org

17. Average Dec–Mar Precipitation 1981–2000 Precipitation Little change in precipitation by mid-century* Average Dec–Mar Precipitation 2041–2060: Business As Usual *Results are preliminary

18. Precipitation But other factors affect water resources  Snowpack  Evaporation  Streamflow

19. Snowfall Idyllwild Wrightwood Lake Arrowhead 87” 40” 87” Baseline Annual Snowfall

20. Snowfall Idyllwild Wrightwood Lake Arrowhead 52” 22” 53” Business As Usual Mid-Century

21. Snowfall Idyllwild Wrightwood Lake Arrowhead 62” 27” 63” Mitigation Mid-Century

22. Fire 45000 Acres Burned by Wildfires* 5000 25000 15000 35000 1981–2000 MayJuneJulyAugSeptOctNovDec 2041–2060 Business As Usual *Preliminary results from fire study conducted in collaboration with Yufang Jin and Jim Randerson at UC Irvine

23. UCLA Climate Research Lounge