1. poster Web Page: www.jamesgregory.org

2. James Gregory Public Lectures Future Programme: 1. April 30 -- Kenneth Miller “Life: Creation or Evolution?” 2.October 29 2009 -- Keith Ward "God, Science and the New Atheism" 3.February 18, 2010 -- David Wilkinson "God and the Big Bang” 4. April 29, 2010 -- Bill Newsome "The Mind: Brain or Spirit?"

3. John ray pamphlet By John Houghton -- for sale at Bookstore -Or download from web site John Ray Initiative www.jri.org.uk

4. book For sale at bookstore

5. Global Warming - is it real and what can we do? John Houghton James Gregory Lecture University of St Andrews 19 February 2009

7. SPACESHIP EARTH Spaceship Economy or Cowboy Economy after Prof Kenneth Boulding 1966

8. Sustainability Not cheating our children Not cheating our neighbours Not cheating the rest of creation

9. The Science of Global Warming

10. The underlying physics of global warming (known for 200 years) Solar radiation Long-wave radiation The Greenhouse Effect jp10

11. Changes in CO2 over 10,000 years from ice-cores (colored symbols) and atmospheric samples (red line) From Figure SPM-1, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

12. Scenarios of Future Changes in Climate From IPCC AR4 2007

13. Some main impacts of climate change More intense heat waves Sea level rise More intense hydrological cycle jp14

14. European Heatwave 2003 - JJA temp anomaly compared with average 1961-90 From Technical Summary, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

15. European heat-wave 2003 - 20,000 died extremely rare event (Schär et al. 2004, Nature, 427, 332-336, Stott et al 2004, Nature 432 610-614 ) Swiss Temperature Series for June-August 1864-2003 Analysis shows it likely that most of the risk of the event is due to increase in greenhouse gases - also likely that - by 2050, average summer - by 2100, a cool summer jp16

16. Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

17. More rain for some; less rain for others Jun-Jul-Aug changes by 2090s Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Precipitation decreases likely in most subtropical land regions From Summary for Policymakers, IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

18. Floods and Droughts - the most damaging of world disasters Over the period 1975-2002: Over 200,000 lives lost through flooding from rainfall & 2.2 billion people affected Over 500,000 lives lost due to drought & 1.3 billion affected Jonkman, S.N. 2005 Natural Hazards 34, 151-175 jp18

19. Global Warming & Climate Change in 21st Century Rise in global average temperature > 2 ºC Rise in average sea level for many centuries More extreme heat waves, floods and droughts Likely Greenland ice cap will begin to melt down (complete melt down gives 7m of sea level rise) Poor nations worst affected Many millions of environmental refugees Loss of millions of species

20. How sure are we about Global Warming? jp22

21. www.ipcc.ch

22. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Founded in 1988 Many hundreds of scientists involved from different countries & ideologies Under discipline of science - honesty, accuracy & balance In June 2005, Academies of Science of all G8 countries with India, China & Brazil, issued a joint statement, “Global response to climate change” endorsing the international scientific consensus of the IPCC. - a remarkably strong endorsement from the world’s top scientific community jp24

23. What can we do about Global Warming? International Action jp25

24. UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Rio de Janeiro : June 1992 ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention.... is to achieve,.… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere … the level to be chosen should enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. jp26

25. jp31 Stabilization Target of 2ºC above preindustrial First proposed by EU Council in 1996 Reiterated by Chancellor Merkel at G8 in 2007 Widely urged by many at Bali Conference 2007

26. What Action? Halt Deforestation More efficient energy generation & use Carbon capture and storage underground Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions jp31

27. What Action? Halt Deforestation More efficient energy generation & use Carbon capture and storage underground Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions jp31

30. What Action? Halt Deforestation More efficient energy generation & use Carbon capture and storage underground Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions jp31

31. from IEA WEO 2007

32. What Action? Halt Deforestation More efficient energy generation & use Carbon capture and storage underground Renewable energy generation with no carbon emissions jp31

33. Concentrated Solar Power Thousands of mirrors focus sunlight on to gas or steam engines to make electricity

34. Energy from Biomass & Waste From Waste - domestic and agricultural From Biocrops to power stations From Biocrops to Biofuels Local rather than centralized energy so valuable in rural areas Energy from agricultural & forestry wastes could meet at least 10 % of the World’s total energy needs. from World Energy Outlook, IEA, 2006 Table 14.6

35. Local energy for rural areas in the developing world

36. Car battery Refrigerator T.V. Light Solar cell array ~1 m 2 ~100 W peak power Local solar energy supply +-

38. from IEA ETP 2008

39. The International Challenge

40. per Capita CO 2 e Emissions in 2004 from IPCC AR4, WGIII, 2007

41. Climate Change: the Moral Imperative Growth of wealth in rich world through cheap coal, oil, gas No realization of damage caused, especially to poor countries Rich countries need to reduce damage & assist poor countries develop sustainably

42. Are we good at Sharing? Yes - in our families Yes - in our communities Yes - in our national social programs No - internationally with poorer nations - net flow of wealth from poor to rich We have to learn to SHARE

43. From everyone who has been given much, much will be demanded Jesus in Luke 12 v 48

44. How long have we got?

45. Waymarks for global energy emissions road map to 2050

46. Investment in Energy to 2050 Under business-as usual ~ 6 trillion $/year With emissions reductions under 2 deg target ~ extra 1 $trillion /year or 1% of world GDP Extra investment recovered through savings on fuel »from IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2008

48. The world’s energy system is at a crossroads Current global energy..trends..are unsustainable There’s still time to change the road we’re on What’s needed is nothing short of an energy revolution IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 Executive Summary

49. Action on Climate Change “ Mostly we know what to do, but we lack the will to do it ” Sir Crispin Tickell in the Doomsday Letters

50. Reasons for optimism - Commitment of scientific community - Necessary technology available - God’s commitment to his creation jp42

51. Intelligence behind universe? Where do ‘laws’ of nature, awe & wonder come from? ‘a deeply religious non-believer’ Albert Einstein

52. God is Creator Science is God’s science God is our partner in caring for Creation

53. “Noone made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do so little” Edmund Burke Everybody can do something

54. Caring for the Earth – a Scientific, Moral & Spiritual Challenge