1. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium This project is funded by the European Union Projekat finansira Evropska Unija Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Projekat realizuje Human Dynamics Konzorcijum EFFECTS TO PEOPLE AND STRUCTURES, DOMINO EFFECTS ANALYSIS Antony Thanos Ph.D. Chem. Eng. antony.thanos@gmail.com

2. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Main top event categories Toxic dispersion Toxic dispersion Explosion Fire Hazardous substance release Initial eventTop event Toxic effects Overpressure Thermal Radiation Thermal Radiation Consequences Fire Thermal Radiation Thermal Radiation Toxic dispersion Toxic dispersion Toxic effects Fire Thermal Radiation Thermal Radiation

3. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Probit functions  Relation of probability for a certain effect level to a cause level  Probit function defined per type of effect expected  For thermal radiation, example of effects : odeath o1 st degree burns  For toxic substance, example of effects : odeath oirreversible effects

4. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Probit functions (cont.)  Origin from toxicology. Extension to thermal radiation, overpressure effects  Basic assumption: cause and effects follow Gaussian distribution.  Why Gaussian distribution ? oPopulation members are not identical : age sex, health status etc.

5. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Probit functions (cont.)

6. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Probit functions (cont.)  Transformation to probit results in close to linear relationship of cause (dose) and probit parameter

7. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Probit functions (cont.) Relation of ammonia dose vs probability of lethality and probit function for lethality

8. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Probit functions (cont.) P =  (Pr), P : probability value Pr : probit value  : standard function of probability with probit value function  calculated by numerical approximations using error function (erf), for probit value Pr such as : use this for Excel

9. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Probit functions (cont.) oerror function (erf) definition: oerf calculated readily, even in spreadsheets (excel) oPolynomial approximations of error function also are available:

10. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Probit functions and cause levels oGenerally : Pr = A + B ln(D), Pr : probit value A, B : probit constants for a specific harm D : cause value for specific harm oCause value in many cases relates also with exposure time

11. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic substance effects (cont.)  Toxic effects via inhalation  Dose concept : Dose = C n t C, concentration t, exposure time n, exponent depending on substance : available on literature for several toxics, usually in the range 1-2 even higher values (NO 2 : 3.7, SO 2 : 2.4), if not known, or no suitable data are available, n=2

12. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Exposure time : oUsually 30-60 min (assumed time for escape time to shelter) oProbit constants available in literature for several toxics oToxic endpoints definitions must include exposure time, e.g. LC50 (30 min)

13. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Toxicity data vs species and exposure time : oLiterature toxicity data must be adjusted to humans and for the required exposure time, e.g. literature data for LC1 (2 hours) on rats must be adjusted to LC50 (30 min) for humans oAdaptation for exposure time : via exponent n for same dose, example for exposure time t a, t b, e.g. :

14. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Conversion of data between species (TNO Green Book) : oIn general, safety factors taken for conversion of animal data to human : 5 for locally acting substances (lung damage), different breathing rate and lung surface taken also into account 10 for systemic damage (damage to other organs via blood circulation), different body weight taken also into account oIn emergencies, additional safety factor (2) is encountered, due to increased breathing rate

15. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Conversion of data between species (TNO Green Book) : (cont.) oFinally, extrapolation factors (f d ) are calculated (0.2- 0.5) Toxicity parameter such as LC50, LC1 etc.

16. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Conversion of data between species (TNO Green Book) : (cont.) oExample results for extrapolation factors (Green Book)

17. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Endpoints used oLC50, concentration of toxic in air for lethal effect to 50% of exposed people (usually provided for 30 min) oLC1, concentration of toxic in air for lethal effect to 1% of exposed people (usually provided for 30 min) oLDx, dose for lethal effect to x% of exposed people, dose defined as toxic load per body mass (kg of toxic/kg of body weight) oLD cannot be directly be used in Seveso application, as consequence analysis results in estimation of toxic in air concentration. Conversions are required for exposure time, breathing rate, body mass

18. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Endpoints used : (cont.) oIDLH (Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health), concentration threshold of airborne toxic likely to cause death or immediate or delayed permanent adverse health effects or prevent escape. Maximum exposure time of healthy worker 30 min Damage affecting escape action (irritation of eyes or lungs) are taken also into account. Threshold for high reliable breathing apparatus requirement.

19. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Endpoints used : (cont.) oIDLH source : NIOSH oIDLH available for limited number of substances oIf not available and required, approximations are used : IDLH= 0.1 LC50 (EPA)

20. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Other endpoints used : (cont). oERPG 1/2/3 (Emergency Response Planning Guidelines, USA). Exposure time up to 1 hour, general population. oAEGP 1/2/3 (Acute Exposure Guideline Levels, USA). General population, exposure times 10 min, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour, 8 hours) o……. oSafety report must not be a collection of toxicity parameters

21. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Endpoints used in legislation, risk acceptance criteria oUsually up to 3 different endpoints required oFrance : LC50/LC1/Irreversible effects oGreece : LC50/LC1/IDLH oItaly : LC50/IDLH oPortugal : AEGL 3/AEGL 2

22. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Endpoints used in legislation, risk acceptance criteria oCommon characteristics in most cases : Inner endpoint : LC50 Outer endpoint : irreversible effects Tables with values of required toxicity endpoint provided in Guidance documents (NO REQUIREMENT FOR TOXICITY ENDPOINT CALCULATION FOR MOST COMMON TOXICS)

23. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Mixed Toxics (e.g. pesticide warehouse) oToxics in same category (e.g. organophosphates) act via the same route in organism (e.g. respiratory system damage, depletion of oxygen) concentrations in air can be aggregated and treated as one substance, via weighted average using toxicological endpoints (LC50, LC1, IDLH etc.) for each one: Aggregated (equivalent) concentration relates to category member with maximum endpoint

24. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Toxic Effects (cont.)  Mixed Toxics (e.g. pesticide warehouse) oToxics in different category (e.g. organophoshates, carbamides, organochlorides) act via the different route in organism concentrations cannot be aggregated

25. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects  Impacts depend on both thermal radiation flux and exposure time, e.g. oThermal radiation flux 37,5 kW/m 2 : damage to equipment after 20 minutes 100% lethality in 1 minute 1% lethality for 10 seconds

26. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to people  Best practice the use of Thermal Dose : TDU = Q 4/3 t Q (W/m 2 ), emissive power (thermal radiation flux) from flame/fireball surface at point in interest t (sec), exposure time

27. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to people (cont.) Pr = A + B ln(D), D : Thermal Dose  Probit constants A, B available in literature for several levels of harm from thermal radiation olethal effects probit function where : Q (W/m 2 ), t (sec) Q calculated by consequence analysis

28. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to people (cont.)  Exposure time : oShort time period phenomena, e.g. BLEVE/fireball : duration of BLEVE (appr. up to 30 sec, even for very big tanks) oLonger period phenomena : assumed escape time (time to shelter), as for : pool fires jet flame

29. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to people (cont.)  Exposure time : (cont.) oEstimation of exposure time required oHSE GRAG for LPGs, flammables: Escape speed for average public 2.5 m/sec Escape speed for elderly, children 1 m/sec Distance to shelter in suburban areas 50 m Distance to shelter in rural areas 78 m

30. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to people (cont.)  Exposure time : (cont.) oIn most cases, exposure time is defined in guidance documents (usually in the order of 0.5-1 min ) Netherlands : 20 sec Greece : 40 sec UK : 60 sec  Flash fire case :  death expected within flammable cloud section limits (UFL/LFL) due to ignition of clothes  no effects expected outside flammable cloud

31. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to people (cont.)  Endpoints for thermal radiation to be reported in Safety Report defined usually for effects to humans (e.g. lethal effects, irreversible damage), inline with acceptance criteria  Be careful !!!!! o Thermal Dose in endpoints could require Q expressed in kW/m 2 oTypical case when thermal dose is expressed with TDU units ((kW/m2) 4/3 sec)

32. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to people (cont.)  Endpoints in Greece : o1500 TDU : 3 rd degree burns (lethal effects) in 50% of exposed people o450 TDU : 3 rd degree burns in 1% of exposed people o170 TDU : 1st degree burns in significant part of exposed people  Endpoints in France : o1800 TDU : Significant lethal effects o1000 TDU : Lethal effects threshold o600 TDU : Irreversible effects threshold

33. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to people (cont.)  Endpoints in UK : o1800 TDU : Significant likehood of death (12.8 kW/m2 for 1 min) o1000 TDU : Dangerous dose for average people (8.2 kW/m2 for 1 min) o500 TDU : Dangerous dose for vulnerable people (4.9 kW/m 2 for 1 min)

34. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to structures  Damage type : oLevel 1. Ignition of surfaces, breakage of structure elements oLevel 2. Optical deterioration of material (discoloration, paint peeling off), structural element deformation  For Safety Reports, effects to structure elements are in primary interest, as no combustible (wood) buildings are expected

35. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to structures (cont.)  Parameters affecting effects : oThermal radiation flux on exposed surface oMaterial of construction and shape oExposure time Surface and bulk material temperature rises Deterioration of material properties (e.g. yield strength) Potential to exceed the capability of material to carry the structural loads present

36. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to structures (cont.)  For buildings, severe damage referred in literature for 12.6 kW/m 2 and 20 min. For which buildings ???  TNO Green Book clarifies : o25 kW/m 2, wood ignition for prolonged exposure o12.5 kW/m 2, piloted ignition of wood, plastics melt o4 kW/m 2, glass breakage

37. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to structures (cont.)  France : 16 kW/m 2 generic for structures (excluding reinforced concrete)  UK, SRAG documents : o25.6 kW/m 2, spontaneous ignition threshold o14.7 kW/m 2, piloted ignition threshold  What about steel/equipment ??

38. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Thermal radiation effects to structures (cont.)  Generic threshold for equipment : 37.5 kW/m 2 and 20 min exposure time  TNO Green Book for beam profiles : oLevel 1 damage expected for 100 kW/m 2 oLevel 2 damage expected for 25 kW/m 2 oExposure time for critical temperature to be reached, depends strongly on beam (geometry and orientation to heat source) oLevel 2 damage for exposure time in the range of 10- 50 min, depending on beam type.

39. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Overpressure effects to structures (cont.)  Some examples for equipment damage (note that 100 kPa=1000 mbar) : oDestruction of sphere support structure : 100 kPa oMovement of cylindrical tank, failure of connecting piping : 50 –100 kPa oDamage in distillation column : 35 – 80 kPa oRail tank turnover : 50 kPa oPiperack destruction : 40 – 55 kPa oCrack in empty oil tank : 20 –30 kPa oDestruction of tank roof : 7 kPa

40. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Overpressure effects to structures (cont.)  Some examples for buildings : oTotal destruction : 70-83 kPa oPartial destruction : 35-50 kPa oSevere and repairable damage (partial collapse of walls and roofs) : 15-20 kPa oPartial demolition, made inhabitable : 8 kPa oLimited damage (windows break, small cracks in walls) : 3-5kPa

41. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Overpressure effects to structures (cont.)  Apparently effect to buildings are strongly related with building elements construction characteristics, as for example: oshape odimensions omaterial of construction (brick wall, reinforced concrete wall etc.), otype of window used (old type-single ones versus modern-double ones)  Effects are related also with probit functions for damage to both human and structures

42. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Overpressure effects to structures (cont.)  Effects are related also with probit functions for damage to either human and structures  Some probit functions use in addition to overpressure, the impulse parameter (i s ) t+ Pa

43. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Overpressure endpoints in Safety Reports  Usually, impulse parameters is not taken into account for endpoints defined in legislation, guidance for Safety Reports (especially for non- probabilistic approach)  Common characteristic : endpoints defined for effects only to structures

44. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Overpressure endpoints in Safety Reports (cont.)  France : o200 mbar : significant lethal effects o140 mbar : lethal effects threshold o50/20 mbar : irreversible effects (direct/indirect)  Greece : o350 mbar, severe and not repairable damage to bearing structure and walls o140 mbar, damage to bearing structure and walls o50 mbar, simple cracks in walls, damage to doors, windows

45. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Overpressure endpoints in Safety Reports (cont.)  Italy : o300 mbar, high lethal effects o140 mbar, lethal effects threshold o70 mbar, irreversible effects o30 mbar, reversible effects  Portugal : o140 mbar : lethal effects o50 mbar : irreversible effects

46. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Overpressure endpoints in Safety Reports (cont.)  UK : o500 mbar, house completely demolished o200 mbar, severely damaged housed o100 mbar, house inhabitable but repairable o40 mbar, window breakage

47. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Overpressure effects. What about people ?  Effects to humans are present at similar or higher overpressures than for effects to structures. Examples : o1000 mbar : Probability of death due to lung hemorrhage 0.5%. Fatality to people expected for extremely high overpressures o350 mbar : Probability of 5% of ear drum rupture  More severe effects expected to people due to building collapse, window fragments injuries (indirect effects)

48. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Overpressure effects. What about people ?  No benefit for requesting definition of zones for direct effects of overpressure to human

49. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects  Evaluation of secondary accidents expected due to initial accident (internal primary accident, or known external accident)

50. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects (cont.)  Example case : PEMEX Mexico City 1984  Initial LPG pipeline rupture lead to 19 successive BLEVEs

51. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects (cont.)  Analysis outcome expectations : oAccident sequences oComment for accident escalation (secondary accident results in more extended consequences) oReview if all secondary accidents had been included in risk assessment of establishment in the first place oRe-evaluation of safety measures for primary accident

52. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects (cont.) already foreseen already foreseen Primary (initial) accident Primary (initial) accident Domino radius Consequence analysis Identification of equipment within Domino radius Consequence analysis Consequence analysis SECONDARY ACCIDENTS SECONDARY ACCIDENTS NO YES END Primary (initial) accident Primary (initial) accident Domino radius Consequence analysis Consequence analysis PRIMARY (INITIAL) ACCIDENT PRIMARY (INITIAL) ACCIDENT Domino radius

53. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects (cont.)  Domino effects expected due to oThermal radiation (pool fire, jet flame) oOverpressure oMissiles (BLEVE/fireball)  No Domino effects attributed from flash fire or toxic effects oIndirectly only effects could be expected from deaths of operators

54. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects (cont.)  Thermal radiation : Domino effects due to effect to support structures and equipment (steel) (not for buildings). Both L1 and L2 (deformation of structures) damage levels under interest  No detailed missiles (fragment) analysis expected. Stochastic phenomenon :(fragment size, energy, direction) with inherent analysis difficulty

55. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects causes (cont.)  BLEVE/fireball oThermal radiation not considered to cause secondary accidents due to very limited duration (up to 30 sec) oMissiles contribute to loss of containment with expression of secondary accidents (pool fire, jet flame) which can also lead even to BLEVE oMissiles can be expected up to appr. 1 km away

56. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects endpoints  France : o8 kW/m 2, thermal radiation o200 mbar, overpressure  Greece : o37,5 kW/m 2, thermal radiation (pool fire/jet flame) oBLEVE radius, jet flame length o500 mbar, overpressure

57. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects (cont.)  Italy : o12.5 kW/m 2, thermal radiation o200-800 m, BLEVE o300 mbar  Spain : o8 kW/m 2, thermal radiation o160 mbar, overpressure

58. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects (cont.)  Primary accident in establishment oStraight forward calculation of Domino effects within installation based on defined Domino endpoints oWhat if Domino distance extends to third party establishments ?

59. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects example  Comment Domino effects from tanker BLEVE

60. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects example (cont.)  “Internal” effects oDomino radius includes LPGSITE tanks. Secondary accidents expected in LPGSITE tanks, resulting, in worst-case, in more severe consequences compared to primary accident (tanker BLEVE), due to higher capacity of tanks (100 m 3 ) than tanker capacity (appr. 40 m 3 ) oDomino radius includes other LPGSITE areas (e.g. cylinder filling station, piping network). Not significant secondary accidents, due to less severe consequences in those areas

61. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects example (cont.)  “External” effects oDomino radius includes areas of GASCOMP site oGASCOMP must be informed in order to take the relevant risk into account in its own risk assessments oUsually no detailed map of neighbour site is available, nor details of operation oNot detailed comments to be made from LPGSITE for accidents in GASCOMP

62. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Domino effects example (cont.)  Example of comments to be made from GASCOMP (owner and responsible for risk analysis) on “external” effects from LPGSITE primary accident oDomino area does not include GASCOMP tanks area, or road tanker station. No secondary accidents expected in this area (excluding fragment effects) oDomino area includes pump station oGASCOMP must examine accidents in pump station (and in piping included in domino area)

63. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium “External” Domino effects summary  For primary accident in establishment A oNo information on neighbor establishment B available (operation data, drawings) oNo requirement for A to carry out consequence analysis for affected area of neighbor B oAuthorities must provide the information to the neighbor B for its affected area oThe neighbor B (owner and responsible for risk analysis) completes its own risk assessment, taking into account the additional source of accident in its establishment from primary accident in establishment A

64. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Literature for Effects to People & Structures, Domino Effects Analysis  Lees’ Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, Elsevier Butterworth Heinemann, 3 nd Edition, 2005  Methods for the Determination of Possible Damage to People and Objects Resulting from Releases of Hazardous Materials, Green Book, CPR 16E, TNO, 1992  Guidelines for Quantitative Risk Assessment, Purple Book, CPR 18E, VROM, 2005  Methods for the Calculation of Physical Effects due to Releases of Hazardous Materials (Liquids and Gases), Yellow Book, CPR 14E, VROM, 2005  Guidelines for Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis, CCPS- AICHE, 2000

65. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Literature for Effects to People & Structures, Domino Effects Analysis (cont.)  Safety Report Assessment Guides (SRAGs), Health and Safety Executive, UK  HSE, Research Report 182, Development of methods to assess the significance of domino effects from major hazard sites, 1998  Guidelines for Evaluating the Characteristics of Vapour Cloud Explosions, Flash Fires and BLEVEs, CCPS-AICHE, 1994  Assael M., Kakosimos K., Fires, Explosions, and Toxic Gas Dispersions, CRC Press, 2010  C. Delvosalle, F. Benjelloun, C. Fi é vez,, A Methodology for Studying Domino Effects, Facult é Polytechnique de Mons, Ministere Federal de l ’ ;Emploi et du Travail, July 1998  RIVM, Instrument Domino Effecten, May, 2003 (in Dutch)

66. This Project is funded by the European Union Project implemented by Human Dynamics Consortium Literature for Effects to People & Structures, Domino Effects Analysis (cont.)  Taylor J., Risk Analysis for Process Plant, Pipelines and Transport, E&FN SPON, 1994  Prugh R., The effect of Explosive Blast on Structures and Personnel, Process Safety Progress, p.5, Spring 1999  N. Markatos, NTUA, Chemical Engineering Department, Methodology of Assessment of Consequence from fire in Pesticide installations, 2001 (in Greek)  Derivation of IDLH values, NIOSH 2014  Technical Guidance for Hazards Analysis Guidance for Hazards Analysis - Emergency Planning for Extremely Hazardous Substances, U.S. EPA, FEMA, DoT, December 1987