2. HIRLAM-6 plan and work MoU, Motivations, Targets Data assimilation, 3D-VAR and 4D-VAR Observation usage Parameterisation Dynamics System and embedding Lead Centre for RCR Météo-France agreement

3. HIRLAM-6 Memorandum of Understanding Targets –achieve highest possible accuracy for severe weather and of wind, precipitation and temperature –develop 3D/4D-VAR further and its use of non- conventional data –maintain the regular analysis/forecasting cycle –continue development of synoptic model 10-20 km –develop meso-scale non-hydrostatic operational model with suitable physical parameterisation –Overhaul of complete System –develop methods for probabilistic forecasting –continue development of verification methods

4. HIRLAM-6 organisation HIRLAM Council Advisory Comittee Project Leader Data Assimilation algorithms Model physics System Core group members (8)Staff (14) Heads of Research Model dynamics Management Group : Project Leader : Area leaders : System Manager Data Assimilation observation usage Overhaul leader Module responsibles

5. HIRLAM strategy - synoptic Synoptic model, 10-20 km, every 6 hours -> 2 (3) days, 4D-VAR and satellite data over a (fairly) large area –provides comprehensive set of forecast parameters for applications and driving other models –boundary conditions and tight coupling to meso-scale model –covers window between ECMWF forecasts - more recent observations and boundaries (frames)

6. HIRLAM strategy - meso-scale Meso-scale data assimilation and model, 2-3 km non- hydrostatic model +3-12 (24 h) –physics for 2km, explicit convection –turbulence and radiation non-local (later, ~ 1 km ) –rapid update cycle, vast amount of regional data available, conv/non-conv, reflectivity, precipitation.. –4D-VAR /3D-VAR FGAT - if in short time - spinup? –Boundary field impact, transparent boundary cond. Experiences and plans elsewhere: –4D-VAR moisture and non-linear effects ECMWF –UK Workshop Reading 2003, 4D-VAR or EnsKF at 1-3 km - no known balances at this scale ! –JMA ….

7. Data Assimilation –3D-VAR improvements FGAT implemented improved quality contr & background constraint (horizontal variation) flow dependency - Eady index - estimation (D. Dee) –4D-VAR developments semi-Lagrangian dynamics, SETTLS, gain x 3 incremental (and multi-) code implemented MF regularised physics (Buizza used mainly so far)

9. Data Assimilation (cont) –Surface analysis tuning, new statistics) snow (OI) new data sources for physiography soil moisture and temperature (variational, ELDAS) Observation usage: – Conventional data Quality control and monitoring Tuning of observation errors –Non-conventional data ATOVS –AMSU-A: bias correction, tuning –EUMETSAT ATOVS Re-transmission Service –land/ice, HIRS and AMSU-B –Ts, emissitivity control variables

11. Non-conventional data (cont) –Quikscat ambiguous winds implementation –Radar winds assimilated radial wind super-obs, de-aliasing, QC VAD winds, European exchange OPERA –GPS ZTD prec. Water content –Profilers - impact study done - monitoring, blacklist needed –SSM/I, MODIS

12. Forecast model physics –Turbulence scheme revised stable formulation moist conservative scheme –total water potential temperature for the Ri coupling with condensation –statistical cloud scheme

13. In stable conditions: (Non-linear averaging effects)

14. January 1999

16. Forecast model physics (cont) –clouds and condensation cloud scheme - statistical - planned in turbulence micro physics will be worked on later RK or STRACO large scale condensation –surface scheme ISBA esat over snow soil freezing implemented new snow model to be implemented very soon new databases - ECOCLIMAP

17. Snow scheme in ISBA main modifications to original code: Only new snow scheme on fractions 3 and 4 Force-restore formulation replaced by heat conduction Heat capacity of uppermost layer replaced by 1 cm moist soil. A second soil layer (7.2 cm) Forest area decreased so that at least 10% of area is low-vegetation At present (temporarilly!) no soil freezing Forest tile, no modifications

18. Tclim ISBA: snow covering parts of fractions 3 and 4 Td snow Td 3 and 4 Ts2 snow Ts2 3 and 4 Ts snow Ts 3 and 4 T snow Thermally active layer snow in beginning of timestep Snow change mixing of T in soil between timesteps Features of the snow scheme: move the snow from fractions 3 and 4 to fraction 6 every timestep one layer of the snow, with a thermally active layer < 15 cm water in the snow, which can refreeze varying albedo and density mirroring of temperature profile in the ground to assure correct memory

20. Forecast model physics (cont) –Convection STRACO developments implemented Kain-Fritsch code as an option - then tested –Radiation scheme / updates –Sub grid scale orography implement later - after turbulence changes alternative, orographic turbulence

21. Model Dynamics –Time integration Semi-Lagrangian updates, Ritchie-Tanguay T equation Semi-Lagrangian and physics coupling, Wedi –NH model semi-Lagrangian version (Tartu) physics for meso-scale will be provided testing and compare external model (under discussion) –Boundary conditions Improve current boundary scheme Research and development of schemes for transparent boundary conditions

23. –Digital filter initialisation Launching (forward), reduced spin up Incremental version and spin-up studies Blending

25. –Forecast probabilities LAMEPS (ECMWF perturbations) - near real time trial (LAM singular vectors ?) System and Embedding: –implementing developments –testing of the beta-releases -> Reference –Regular Cycle of Reference system - validation - FMI RCR –Efficiency and Overhaul of System - limited work –Verification methods - development - Workshop 2004 –Communication and documentation - HeXNeT Scientific documentation, Paper planned

26. Lead Centre for Regular Cycle with the Reference FMI / HIRLAM agreement –FMI runs the Reference System as operational model –Is the RCR of HIRLAM-6 –Operational attention and support for RCR –Reference system at 0.2/40, reference settings and obs –RCR products in near real time on HeXNeT –Not operational status but high level of support –Full data set on HeXNeT available to all HIRLAM –Very limited deviations (ice,SST), available to all –emergency changes

28. Procedures for upgrades –proposed beta release tested 4x4 weeks –parallel run at FMI < 2 months –agreement between FMI and MG –Core group support for solving problems travel funds within the Budget –up to 2 Reference releases per year Monitoring –Operational forecasters in real time on HeXNeT –Automatic near real time displays of obseravations and fields –Monthly monitoring reports, observations, fields, errors, diagnostics, profiles

29. Météo-France agreement 3D-VAR Observations, conventional, radar, TOVS Surface Turbulence Orographic drag Convection at intermediate scales (-) 4D-VAR simplified physics (-) Physics - dynamics interface Radiation scheme ? NH dynamics ?? Near real time intercomparisons ? Diagnostics and verification